St. Louis Cardinals Trade Deadline Review: Can Red Birds Hang in Wild Card Race?

Shawn Armstrong

Although trading away former top prospect Dylan Carlson for a rental reliever might seem costly, the deal appears beneficial for all parties involved.

For Carlson, this trade offers a new beginning with an organization known for maximizing player potential.

Meanwhile, Shawn Armstrong and the Cardinals benefit as well. Armstrong, a veteran right-hander, gets a chance to rebuild his value on a postseason-contending team before entering free agency. Despite a high 5.40 ERA upon arriving in St. Louis, Armstrong's performance was somewhat better than that figure suggests.

With the Tampa Bay Rays in 2024, Armstrong struck out 23.4% of batters, maintained an 8.9% walk rate, and kept home runs under one per inning. Advanced metrics like FIP (3.77), xFIP (4.21), and SIERA (3.89) show a more favorable view of his skills than traditional stats might indicate.

Now part of the Cardinals’ bullpen, Armstrong's challenge is to prevent runs more effectively. While his strikeout, walk, and home run rates are solid, the quality of contact he's allowed indicates a need for improvement, with metrics like barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity placing him in the lower 31st percentile.

Transitioning to a new league and division could be advantageous as he faces NL Central batters.

Armstrong won't be immediately placed in high-leverage situations, given that the Cardinals' bullpen ranks seventh in ERA and fifth in FanGraphs' Clutch rating. However, if he can mitigate some of the damage he's been prone to, he could significantly bolster an already strong bullpen.

Overall, the Cardinals’ trade deadline actions should be viewed positively. They filled a gap in their starting rotation, added a bat proficient against left-handers, and strengthened their bullpen. Yet, considering the competition for the 2024 postseason, it seems that St. Louis might have needed to make even more substantial moves to surpass teams like the Milwaukee Brewers or a combination of the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres.

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NL Central and Wild Card Race Odds

However, it remains to be seen if these moves are sufficient to propel St. Louis from a fringe contender to a playoff-bound team, especially amid fierce competition. FanGraphs places the Cardinals’ chances at clinching the NL Central at 10.2% and their playoff odds at 16.5%. They also face a challenging path ahead with upcoming series against the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers, marking the second-most difficult remaining schedule in the National League.

To complicate matters for St. Louis, the remaining schedule only pits them against direct playoff rivals a few times. They face the Milwaukee Brewers six times, Pittsburgh Pirates four times, San Francisco Giants three times, and San Diego Padres four times. Currently, only the Padres and Brewers hold playoff positions, limiting the Cardinals' opportunities to gain ground directly on teams ahead.

Despite these challenges, the additions of Pham, Fedde, and Armstrong were prudent, offering solid value without a hefty cost for St. Louis. Let's explore what each player brings to the Cardinals and how they might help address team weaknesses.

Erick Fedde

While Erick Fedde's Cardinals debut didn't mirror his season performance with the Chicago White Sox, he emerged as one of the standout additions at this year's deadline.

The 31-year-old right-hander, after a stint in Korea, has refined his approach and become a successful major league starter following six challenging seasons with the Washington Nationals.

Now positioned as the No. 2 starter in the Cardinals' rotation, Fedde boasts a 3.34 ERA, 3.89 FIP, a 21% strikeout rate, and a 6.5% walk rate over 162.2 innings this season. Assuming he remains healthy, he is expected to consistently provide St. Louis with strong chances to win in the final two months. It was evident at the deadline that the Cardinals needed to bolster their rotation, which has been notably weak for several years, requiring at least one or two starting pitchers. As of July 30, their rotation ranked 22nd in ERA, 20th in strikeout rate, 12th in walk rate, 24th in average against, and 13th in innings pitched.

Thus, this deadline was a critical opportunity for St. Louis to elevate their rotation. While the market dictates availability, securing Fedde and potentially another starter would have ideally positioned the Cardinals for a playoff run. With a reliable bullpen already in place, adding Fedde was perhaps the most pivotal move of the 2024 trade deadline, precisely meeting the team's needs.

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Tommy Pham

With Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt struggling this season, acquiring a significant right-handed bat became nearly essential for the Cardinals.

By deadline day, St. Louis sat 27th in MLB with an 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. The acquisition of Tommy Pham in a seven-player deal involving the White Sox and Dodgers sweetened the transaction for the Cardinals.

Pham immediately rewarded the team for their decision to bring him back, hitting a grand slam in his first at-bat upon returning to St. Louis. His affordability and fit seemed perfect for the Cardinals, given his prowess against lefties and versatility in the outfield.

This season, Pham boasts a .274/.375/.500 slash line with three homers against southpaws and maintains a 45.8% hard-hit rate against them. Though he's a below-average defender in right, center, and left field, his ability to play all three positions allows the Cardinals to enhance their lineup flexibility.

Pham's presence likely means more infield time for Brendan Donovan, offering Nolan Gorman a chance to rest, especially given his 37.9% strikeout rate following a challenging July.

While Pham integrates well into the St. Louis lineup, similar to discussions around Fedde, another bench hitter could have been a beneficial addition.

Currently, the Cardinals' bench includes Brandon Crawford, Pedro Pages, Matt Carpenter, and the recently recalled Victor Scott II, a defensive specialist in center field. Carpenter, the only one with a wRC+ over 100, has managed just eight extra-base hits this year, leaving the Cardinals with limited impactful options for critical pinch-hit situations.

Shawn Armstrong

Although trading away former top prospect Dylan Carlson for a rental reliever might seem costly, the deal appears beneficial for all parties involved.

For Carlson, this trade offers a new beginning with an organization known for maximizing player potential.

Meanwhile, Shawn Armstrong and the Cardinals benefit as well. Armstrong, a veteran right-hander, gets a chance to rebuild his value on a postseason-contending team before entering free agency. Despite a high 5.40 ERA upon arriving in St. Louis, Armstrong's performance was somewhat better than that figure suggests.

With the Tampa Bay Rays in 2024, Armstrong struck out 23.4% of batters, maintained an 8.9% walk rate, and kept home runs under one per inning. Advanced metrics like FIP (3.77), xFIP (4.21), and SIERA (3.89) show a more favorable view of his skills than traditional stats might indicate.

Now part of the Cardinals’ bullpen, Armstrong's challenge is to prevent runs more effectively. While his strikeout, walk, and home run rates are solid, the quality of contact he's allowed indicates a need for improvement, with metrics like barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity placing him in the lower 31st percentile.

Transitioning to a new league and division could be advantageous as he faces NL Central batters.

Armstrong won't be immediately placed in high-leverage situations, given that the Cardinals' bullpen ranks seventh in ERA and fifth in FanGraphs' Clutch rating. However, if he can mitigate some of the damage he's been prone to, he could significantly bolster an already strong bullpen.

Overall, the Cardinals’ trade deadline actions should be viewed positively. They filled a gap in their starting rotation, added a bat proficient against left-handers, and strengthened their bullpen. Yet, considering the competition for the 2024 postseason, it seems that St. Louis might have needed to make even more substantial moves to surpass teams like the Milwaukee Brewers or a combination of the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres.

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