The St. Louis Cardinals’ Uncertain Direction and Youth Movement in 2025

2025 MLB Column: St. Louis Cardinals’ Uncertain Season and Betting Analysis

A Transition Year for St. Louis

The Cardinals enter the 2025 season in a strange place—neither fully rebuilding nor truly contending. Chaim Bloom is set to take over as GM, signaling a shift toward a younger roster, but the transition hasn’t been fully realized yet. The result? A team that looks like it will hover around .500 but could be drastically different by midseason.

Their lineup features promising young players like Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Jordan Walker, but these guys haven’t yet proven they can carry a team. Wilson Contreras is shifting to first base in hopes of unlocking more offensive production, while Brendan Donovan provides versatility when healthy. Nolan Arenado is still here for now, but few believe he’ll remain with the team by the trade deadline.

Betting Market: Will St. Louis Keep Their Core?

Buy or Sell: Nolan Arenado Will Finish the Season with the Cardinals?

• Sell: With St. Louis in transition, it makes sense to move Arenado before he loses more trade value. Expect a midseason deal.

• Buy: If no trade materializes early, the Cardinals may hold on and retool instead of tearing down.

Pitching Staff in Flux

The Cardinals signed several veteran arms last offseason, but none are likely to finish the year in St. Louis. Sonny Gray remains due to his no-trade clause, but Eric Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Andre Pallante could all be trade candidates by July.

This rotation lacks dominant arms, and if the team struggles early, it’s hard to see them keeping this group intact. By the second half, expect younger arms to get opportunities as the team shifts toward its next phase.

Betting Market: St. Louis’ Win Total

Buy or Sell: Cardinals Will Finish with Over 83 Wins?

• Sell: This team is trending downward. If key veterans are moved, St. Louis could struggle to reach even 79-80 wins.

• Buy: If the young core takes a big step forward and the rotation holds up, the Cardinals could be a surprise Wild Card contender.

A True Rebuild Coming Soon?

It seems inevitable that St. Louis will fully embrace a rebuild in 2026, but this year might be more about seeing what they have in their young players. If Arenado, Mikolas, and other veterans are traded midseason, the Cardinals will likely land near the bottom of the NL Central.

Buy or Sell: The Cardinals Will Be Sellers at the Trade Deadline?

• Buy: Bloom’s philosophy leans toward long-term sustainability. Expect a sell-off if they aren’t contending by mid-July.

• Sell: If St. Louis remains in the Wild Card race, they may hold onto key pieces and delay the teardown.

Final Betting Takeaways

• Nolan Arenado is likely to be traded.

• The starting rotation will be unrecognizable by September.

• 83 wins feels like an optimistic projection—bet the under.

• A full rebuild seems inevitable in 2026.

St. Louis is in baseball purgatory—too talented to tank, but not strong enough to truly compete. This season is about transition, and betting on a midseason sell-off seems like the safest play.

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