Top 10 National League Breakout Players to Watch in 2026

Baseball is a beautiful sport in its level of unpredictability, to a degree.

Every year, there are players across the league who explode onto the scene. Some are rookies, some are established, albeit still young players. There are even some late bloomers who become stars in their late 20s or early 30s.

With a rise in uber-young talent debuting, there’s a lot of boom-or-bust to early-career results. Some guys come up and prove they belong immediately. Others struggle so much they get optioned — think Jackson Holliday in 2024. But that doesn’t mean all hope is lost.

The National League is rife with this kind of talent. In addition to its promising rookie class, there are several faces we’ve grown accustomed to seeing that can reach another level if a couple more things go their way.

Here are the top 10 NL candidates to watch for breakouts in 2026.

3B/OF Noelvi Marte — Cincinnati Reds

Marte is a name we’ve been hearing for a long time, pre-dating his time in Cincinnati, before being traded for All-Star right-hander Luis Castillo.

Through 191 career games, the right-handed hitter has a .254/.294/.400 slash line with an 86 wRC+ and 21 home runs. He’s also struggled to find a defensive home between individual struggles paired with a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.

Even though he struggled down the stretch in 2025, there’s a lot to like about Marte as a hitter. For starters, he saw a massive uptick in pull-air rate last season. After hovering around 13% his first two seasons, he upped it to 17.6% last year. That accompanied a fairly league-average barrel and expected slugging profile.

While his defense is a work-in-progress, he has a cannon for an arm, ranking in the 92nd percentile for arm strength in 2025.

The Reds youngster just turned 24 in October. There’s plenty of time for him to continue developing. Even though the Reds added thump with outfielder JJ Bleday and designated hitter Eugenio Suárez, they’ll need a breakout from Marte to build off a postseason berth in 2025.

RHP Clayton Beeter — Washington Nationals

The Nationals may not have a lot of save situations in 2026, but Beeter is projected to get the first crack at it.

The former Yankees farmhand made 24 appearances in the nation’s capital last year, posting a 2.49 ERA with a 38.1% strikeout rate.

His slider is absolutely lethal, holding opponents to a .098 batting average with a 49.1% whiff rate on 214 pitches. His fastball didn’t struggle on a results standpoint, but it dramatically overperformed its expected metrics.

Velocity-wise, his fastball grades out very well. Unfortunately, he lived in the heart of the plate with it last year.

He’ll walk you if you let him, but he was elite at generating whiffs and avoiding hard contact. It was a small sample size, but a promising one at that. A team looking to replace Kyle Finnegan, Beeter is in a prime position to emerge in that role in 2026.

OF/DH Jordan Walker — St. Louis Cardinals

After a promising rookie season, it’s been two struggle-filled seasons in a row for the Cardinals outfielder. However, there’s still plenty to like about the young slugger.

Issues persisting in his game revolve around approach. He ranked in the d first percentile for whiff rate, 15th percentile for chase, and third percentile for strikeout rate. He doesn’t make enough contact, and the contact he makes is oftentimes not of optimal launch angle. That said, he still hammers the baseball.

In addition to hammering the baseball, he finds the barrel when he makes contact. Unfortunately, among hitters with at least 100 fly balls and line drives in 2025, he ranked 272nd in percentage of pitches yielding that result.

Similar to Kyle Pitts in the National Football League, it’s hard to look at the physical specimen Walker is, along with his raw ability, and not see a star in there. After all, there’s plenty of reason he was so highly touted as a prospect.

Like Pitts, a lot of the moxie has worn off as people wait for him to take off. But he’s still just 23 years old; there’s plenty of time for him to come into his own.

OF Garrett Mitchell — Milwaukee Brewers

When Mitchell’s gotten extended run on the field, he’s been a very good ball player in his brief career. Unfortunately, he’s been incredibly injury-prone. Last year, he played just 25 MLB games before a shoulder injury ended his season in June.

In 2024, he played 69 games, slashing .255/.342/.469 with eight homers and 11 stolen bases. He also added +2 outs above average in 456.2 innings.

He’s always been a great bat-speed guy with plus speed and defense. Not to mention his proficiency for not expanding the strike zone. Sure, he has his whiff and strikeout concerns, but his physical traits afford him the ability to outperform his expected metrics if he stays on the field.

Big if, but the former first-rounder out of UCLA has played at a roughly 3.5 fWAR pace over his 141 MLB career games. Sporadically over four seasons, but 3.3 fWAR over 141 games is pretty valuable. His defense will carry him to a productive season if he’s healthy, and even a league-average bat will make him one of the game’s more valuable outfielders.

RHP Brandon Pfaadt — Arizona Diamondbacks

ERA is not the Pfaadt’s best friend by any means, but people are quick to forget he had a three-win season back in 2024.

Not only was his first full MLB season productive, but he was also a postseason hero for the Diamondbacks on their Cinderella run to a World Series berth in 2023. It wasn’t blemish-free, but he hammered the strike zone and was average to above average in whiffs, strikeouts, chase rate, and fastball velocity.

Universally, all of those numbers dipped in 2025.

His sweeper kept hitters at bay in 2024, holding opponents to a .246 xwOBA against and a 36.2% whiff rate. That pitch fell to merely average in 2025. His four-seam dropped from a run value of +7 to -3 as well. The hallmark of a good starting pitcher nowadays is a plus breaker and a good fastball. In 2024, Pfaadt had both; in 2025, he had neither.

The Diamondbacks need more from their rotation this season if they hope to make a run back to October, especially with the early absence of star outfielder Corbin Carroll. If Pfaadt can re-capture that spark from his postseason success and 2024 promise, suddenly that rotation looks a lot better.

RHP Braxton Ashcraft — Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s no mistake that the Pirates have built a pitching lab over the years. Even though all the attention goes to reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, the Pirates are loaded with pitching talent.

Ashcraft is one of many, but he was every bit impressive in 2025. Across 69.2 innings, he posted a 2.71 earned run average with a 16.1% strikeout-to-walk rate.

While his four-seam, his second most-used pitch, got hit around a bit, his slider and curveball were very good. The latter was elite, holding hitters to a .122 average with a 36.6% whiff rate. Hitters underperformed expected data, but still to the tune of a .210 xwOBA and .151 expected average.

Hitters beat the ball into the ground against his sinker and flailed away at his breaking pitches. Overall, he throws hard, misses barrels, and keeps the ball on the ground. All together, that’s a recipe for success.

With Jared Jones opening the season on the injured list, and Mike Burrows traded in the deal that brought Pittsburgh Brandon Lowe, there’s plenty of opportunity for Ashcraft to start. With that opportunity, the Pirates raise the ceiling of a rotation that promises to be one of the most talented in 2026.

OF Oneil Cruz — Pittsburgh Pirates

Similar to Walker, it’s hard to look at Cruz’s traits and not feel like stardom is not if, but when. Last season, he added 38 stolen bases to his 20 homers, making him one of 14 players to hit 20 homers and steal at least 30 bases.

His archetype may not have the longest shelf life; ultimately, he’s a high-whiff, high exit-velocity guy. That said, he was 98th percentile for hard-hit, 97th percentile for barrel rate, 100th percentile for average exit velocity, and 100th percentile in bat speed.

He was also in the 100th percentile for arm strength and 94th percentile for arm value.

His career high for homers might only be 21, but he feels like a potential 40-homer, 40-steal guy if he can tap more into pull-side power. Last year, he posted just a 13.2% pull air rate, significantly down from the 17% it was in 2024.

LHP Justin Wrobleski — Los Angeles Dodgers

I’ll tell just about anybody who listens, including some who don’t, about how much I like this Dodgers left-hander.

Last year, he posted a 4.32 ERA, but a 2.93 FIP and 2.89 SIERA across 66.2 innings. He made two starts last year, with the remaining 22 outings coming out of the bullpen. As a reliever, he posted a 3.23 ERA with a 2.18 FIP and 29.4% strikeout rate.

He even added five scoreless innings in the postseason, striking out six and walking no one.

The Dodgers, having designated and traded Anthony Banda, have opened the door for more Wrobleski out of the pen this season. His fastball-slider combo makes him especially challenging to face. Both pitches held hitters to a .218 and .208 average, respectively. His slider was especially lethal, as opponents posted just a .226 xwOBA against it.

He averaged 95.1 mph on his fastball last year but lived in the strike zone and minimized barrels. In fact, his 3.8% barrel rate was in the 98th percentile a season ago.

RHP Chase Dollander — Colorado Rockies

Command failed the 24-year-old as a rookie, but it was really a tale of two seasons for him. Not in a first-half versus second-half sense, but in a home versus away sense. On the road, his ERA was a very respectable 3.46; at home, it was 9.98.

In his first professional season, Dollander posted a 2.59 ERA with a 12.9 K/9 in 118 innings of work. His problem in 2025 was that his only successful offering was his curveball.

Opponents slugged over .400 against four of his five offerings, with a .614 against his cutter and .548 against his four-seam. He certainly didn’t fare well at Coors Field, which isn’t exactly uncommon. However, he spent this past offseason working on his mechanics.

He told MLB.com’s Todd Harding that he found he was pretty cross-body mechanically, so he cleaned that up this winter. Early returns in bullpens are showing him in the zone more with his heater and slider.

In Spring Training, he’s allowed one earned run in four innings, with a 60% ground-ball rate. Small sample size, and obviously not at Coors Field, but it’s hard not to be optimistic about the 24-year-old heading into Year 2.

OF Dylan Crews — Washington Nationals

The 2023 second overall pick hasn’t lived up to expectations quite yet at the MLB level. In 116 games, he’s got just a 78 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR.

That said, he’s underperformed his expected data both years and has been a plus baserunner.

Similar to Beeter before, there’s plenty of opportunity for this youngster to get better at the MLB level. In an outfield with Daylen Lile and Jacob Young, there’s a lot of talent, albeit unproven, in the nation’s capital.

What he’s struggled with so far as a professional is not tapping into his power. At LSU, he posted ISOs of .301, .341, and .287, respectively. In pro ball, his highest mark at any level is .190 in 49 Triple-A games in 2024.

Part of his problem is that he’s towards the bottom of the league in swings with an ideal attack angle, tying for 364th out of 587 in that on a rate basis. There are exceptions to this metric, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr. are among the contingent of hitters below Crews. However, those guys are anomalies through and through.

If Crews can clean up his swing this year, he’s among the strongest breakout candidates in the National League. Though the Nationals are projected to be among the worst teams in baseball, there’s plenty to be excited about with this group developing in 2026.

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