Unexpected Game Changers: The 4 Guardians Leading the Charge

Cade Smith (RP)

Cade Smith entered Spring Training without a guaranteed spot on the Guardians' Opening Day roster but managed to secure a position, seizing his opportunity from the start of his rookie season.

In 2024, Smith quickly established himself as a key component of the Guardians' bullpen, taking on the seventh-inning role. His performance, along with Hunter Gaddis in the eighth and Emmanuel Clase closing in the ninth, has formed a formidable trio at the back end of the bullpen.

Remarkably, it took Smith nine appearances before he allowed an earned run, contributing to his impressive 1.82 ERA. His ability to dismiss hitters is highlighted by a 34.2% strikeout rate, placing him in the 97th percentile among pitchers. Much of his success can be attributed to his powerful fastball, which he delivers over 66% of the time, averaging 95.5 mph—ranking in the top 25% of all pitchers.

Opponents have struggled significantly against his fastball, managing only a .145 batting average and slugging a mere .217 against it. Smith's performance across various metrics is consistently strong:

Smith’s dominance in his debut season has not only made him one of the league's most effective relievers but also earned him a spot tied for seventh in fWAR at 0.9, ranking alongside elite names like New York Yankees closer Clay Holmes. This performance underscores Smith's rapid ascension and significant impact in the major leagues.

David Fry (C, 1B, OF)

In 2023, David Fry played in 58 games for the Cleveland Guardians, managing a .238/.319/.416 batting line across 113 plate appearances with a -0.1 fWAR and 106 wRC+. Fast forward to 2024, and Fry has dramatically improved his performance. In just 45 games and 155 plate appearances, he boasts a .336/.465/.598 slash line, along with a remarkable 2.1 fWAR and 201 wRC+.

https://twitter.com/JustBB_Media/status/1796712657136824743?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

While his current batting and slugging averages may not be sustainable throughout the entire season, advanced metrics still show promising projections. Fry ranks in the 83rd percentile for expected batting average at .280 and in the 73rd percentile for expected slugging at .459. Despite these optimistic projections, some regression from his current stats is anticipated.

Fry’s disciplined approach at the plate this year is notable. He ranks in the 98th percentile for walk rate, 90th percentile for chase rate, and 91st percentile for hitting in the sweet spot. His proficiency extends across various pitch types, hitting .318 against fastballs and breaking balls and an impressive .500 against off-speed pitches. Notably, Fry does not bat below .300 average or .500 slugging against the four pitches he faces most: four-seam fastballs, sliders, sinkers, and changeups.

Fry’s versatility has also been invaluable to the Guardians, particularly given the offensive struggles of fellow catchers Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges. He has started 15 games as a catcher and eight at first base, providing relief and rotation options for teammates like Josh Naylor. Furthermore, his capability in the outfield has been crucial, especially with regular left fielder Steven Kwan sidelined for most of May. Fry’s multifaceted skill set continues to be a significant asset for the Guardians this season.

Ben Lively (SP)

When Shane Bieber, the 2020 Cy Young Award winner, was sidelined for the season in early April, the Guardians called up Ben Lively from the IL. Lively, who had posted a 5.38 ERA over 88.2 innings with Cincinnati last season, didn't initially seem like a replacement for Bieber, who started 2024 with a 0.00 ERA in his first two outings.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1780754118404874581?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

However, Lively has exceeded expectations since joining the Guardians' rotation. Over ten starts and 55.2 innings, he has recorded a stellar 2.59 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, the best among the team's active starters. In a rotation that ranks 18th in starter ERA and 24th in WHIP and has the lowest total fWAR in MLB, Lively has been a reliable standout. Impressively, he has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in all his starts and has pitched at least five innings in nine of them.

Lively's success isn't due to overpowering velocity—his sinker averages 90.2 mph, and his four-seam fastball 89.8 mph. Instead, he finds effectiveness with moderate strikeout and walk rates, ranking in the 56th and 59th percentiles, respectively.

With a 6-2 record and maintaining a 2.59 ERA, Lively’s efficiency has come without flashy strikeout numbers or high-speed pitches. Particularly effective has been his sweeper, against which hitters are batting just .209 and slugging .326, with a 25.3% whiff rate.

Looking ahead, Lively projects well as a solid starter for Cleveland, with an expected 3.57 ERA and a .236 expected batting average against. Given his performance after signing a minor league deal with team control through 2028, Lively has proven to be one of the offseason's best value signings.

Hunter Gaddis (RP)

In 2023, Hunter Gaddis had a mediocre season, appearing in 11 games with seven starts for the Guardians, posting a 4.50 ERA. His performance at Triple-A Columbus wasn't much better, where he recorded a 6.05 ERA over 74.1 innings.

However, 2024 marked a turnaround for Gaddis as he transitioned to a full-time reliever. He quickly became the primary setup man for the Guardians, showcasing exceptional form. Over 31 appearances and 30.1 innings, Gaddis boasts a remarkable 1.78 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. His performance places him among the elite relievers in baseball, earning him an fWAR of 0.8, tying him with Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, the major league leader in saves.

Gaddis excels across various advanced metrics, ranking above the 75th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), fastball velocity, chase rate, walk rate, and barrel rate. His 2024 stats reflect his dominance:

Gaddis has mastered his three-pitch arsenal this season. His four-seam fastball has been formidable, with batters hitting just .216 and slugging .378 against it. His slider has proven even more effective, with opponents batting .196 and slugging only .275. Moreover, his change-up has been nearly untouchable, holding batters to a .116 average and a minimal .176 slugging percentage. Gaddis’s transformation into a premier reliever has been a key component of the Guardians' bullpen success this year.

Cade Smith (RP)

Cade Smith entered Spring Training without a guaranteed spot on the Guardians' Opening Day roster but managed to secure a position, seizing his opportunity from the start of his rookie season.

In 2024, Smith quickly established himself as a key component of the Guardians' bullpen, taking on the seventh-inning role. His performance, along with Hunter Gaddis in the eighth and Emmanuel Clase closing in the ninth, has formed a formidable trio at the back end of the bullpen.

Remarkably, it took Smith nine appearances before he allowed an earned run, contributing to his impressive 1.82 ERA. His ability to dismiss hitters is highlighted by a 34.2% strikeout rate, placing him in the 97th percentile among pitchers. Much of his success can be attributed to his powerful fastball, which he delivers over 66% of the time, averaging 95.5 mph—ranking in the top 25% of all pitchers.

Opponents have struggled significantly against his fastball, managing only a .145 batting average and slugging a mere .217 against it. Smith's performance across various metrics is consistently strong:

Smith’s dominance in his debut season has not only made him one of the league's most effective relievers but also earned him a spot tied for seventh in fWAR at 0.9, ranking alongside elite names like New York Yankees closer Clay Holmes. This performance underscores Smith's rapid ascension and significant impact in the major leagues.