Ben Lively (SP)
When Shane Bieber, the 2020 Cy Young Award winner, was sidelined for the season in early April, the Guardians called up Ben Lively from the IL. Lively, who had posted a 5.38 ERA over 88.2 innings with Cincinnati last season, didn't initially seem like a replacement for Bieber, who started 2024 with a 0.00 ERA in his first two outings.
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However, Lively has exceeded expectations since joining the Guardians' rotation. Over ten starts and 55.2 innings, he has recorded a stellar 2.59 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, the best among the team's active starters. In a rotation that ranks 18th in starter ERA and 24th in WHIP and has the lowest total fWAR in MLB, Lively has been a reliable standout. Impressively, he has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in all his starts and has pitched at least five innings in nine of them.
Lively's success isn't due to overpowering velocity—his sinker averages 90.2 mph, and his four-seam fastball 89.8 mph. Instead, he finds effectiveness with moderate strikeout and walk rates, ranking in the 56th and 59th percentiles, respectively.
With a 6-2 record and maintaining a 2.59 ERA, Lively’s efficiency has come without flashy strikeout numbers or high-speed pitches. Particularly effective has been his sweeper, against which hitters are batting just .209 and slugging .326, with a 25.3% whiff rate.
Looking ahead, Lively projects well as a solid starter for Cleveland, with an expected 3.57 ERA and a .236 expected batting average against. Given his performance after signing a minor league deal with team control through 2028, Lively has proven to be one of the offseason's best value signings.
