Yankees vs Guardians & Dodgers vs Cubs MLB Picks | Tuesday Best Bets

Our five-game win streak came to an end on Sunday, and not in graceful fashion.

Recapping Sunday’s Misses

Let’s start with Easton Lucas Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110)—arguably one of the worst calls in recent memory. Lucas served up batting practice to the Mariners, delivering meatballs down the heart of the plate. Unsurprisingly, he was promptly sent back down after that outing.

The under in the Phillies-Marlins game was a tough beat. We were cruising until Javier Sanoja launched a three-run bomb in the eighth—his first of the season. That one swing took Orion Kerkering’s ERA from 1.17 to 4.50. Tough break, but no regrets there. Sometimes, that’s just the nature of baseball.

Now let’s shift our focus. We’re back with two plays tonight—one first five moneyline and one total—as we look to regain momentum.

2025 Record: 20-13 (+7.02 Units)

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Guardians vs. Yankees – First Five Moneyline

6:40 PM ET | Pick: Guardians F5 ML

Pitching Matchup

• Guardians: Tanner Bibee (5.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20 IP)

• Yankees: Will Warren (5.17 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 15.2 IP)

I love Will Warren—but even as President of the fan club, I can’t endorse him here. This spot screams value on the Guardians early. Bibee is the more reliable arm right now, and he’s been effective against New York in past matchups.

The Yankees’ bullpen is in great shape, while Cleveland’s is a bit overworked, so we’ll avoid the late-game variance and focus solely on the first five innings.

Why Bibee Has the Edge

Bibee’s postseason history vs. the Yankees includes one rough start and another strong outing that was only derailed by a Stanton homer. Against the current Yankees lineup, he’s held them to a .238 AVG and .242 xwOBA over 23 plate appearances with a 30% strikeout rate. He’s due for a bounce-back after a tough start against Baltimore, and his metrics (whiff/chase rates) are in line with last year despite the dip in strikeouts.

Why Warren Is a Fade

Warren’s underlying issues are becoming hard to ignore. While his four-seamer and sweeper show promise, his sinker and changeup are liabilities—and he lacks command in the zone. He’s struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, posting a 5.65 FIP and 5.08 xFIP compared to 3.16/2.98 vs. righties. That’s a big problem against a Cleveland lineup stacked with lefties like Kwan, Ramirez, and Manzardo.

On the road, Warren’s looked particularly shaky, and Cleveland is a difficult place to pitch when your splits skew this badly.

Additional Context

Cleveland is hitting righties well, boasting a 125 wRC+ at home, while the Yankees have a 118 wRC+ on the road. I price the Guardians as -150 favorites for the first five innings, making this a strong value spot. Play it up to -125.

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Dodgers vs. Cubs – Full Game Total Over 8

7:40 PM ET | Pick: Over 8 Runs (-110)

Pitching Matchup

• Dodgers: Dustin May (1.06 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 17 IP)

• Cubs: Shota Imanaga (2.22 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 21 IP)

Two aces square off in Wrigley, but I’m fading the narrative. With modest wind blowing out and suspect bullpens in play—especially on Chicago’s side—this total feels a bit too low.

Dodgers Familiarity with Imanaga

This is the fourth time the Dodgers have seen Imanaga. He blanked them in Korea and again in a short outing, but their expected metrics tell a different story:

• .319 xwOBA

• .443 xSLG

• 90+ MPH avg exit velocity (55 PA sample)

The Dodgers have historically crushed lefties, and with an off-day to prep, I expect them to make better contact. Shota’s 2.5 earned runs prop is juiced to the over, and that’s not by accident.

Cubs Have a Path Against May

May has faced the Cubs’ current lineup 25 times with ugly results:

• .438 xwOBA

• .314 xBA

• .476 xSLG

While those are a few years old, there’s enough exposure to minimize the deception in May’s pitch mix. This is by far the best offense he’s faced this year (previous matchups: Rockies, Nationals, Braves), and his SIERA (3.62) suggests serious regression from his 1.06 ERA is looming.

May has ditched the cutter and changeup and leaned on his sinker/sweeper/four-seamer combo. The Cubs’ .358 xwOBA against that mix gives them a blueprint.

Final Thoughts

Both starters could get touched up, and these rested bullpens may not be enough to keep it quiet late. I make the total 8.9 runs, so I’m playing the over 8 for 0.75 units and would still hit it at 8.5 (-110).

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