Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 Prediction | ALCS Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
More than 20 years after the Oakland Athletics championed the moneyball strategy, the Cleveland Guardians are still fighting the good fight. Unfortunately for the Guardians, they will suffer a similar fate to all those who tried before them. Cleveland has been completely and utterly out-matched by the New York Yankees every step of the way. The AL Central Champs have been unable to generate any offense against New York’s pitching staff while failing to contain the Yankees’ unrelenting assault. This will be the lowest price we’ll get on the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, and it’s not worth passing up.
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Where to Watch Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 3
- Location: Progressive
- Time: 5:08 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: TBS, truTV, Max, Sportsnet
- Spread: Yankees -1.5 | Moneyline: Yankees -118 | Total: 7.5
Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 3 Best Bet ATS: Yankees -118
Foolishly, bettors think Matthew Boyd has a chance to limit the Yankees’ bats. While sporting a 0.00 ERA in the postseason, Boyd struggles to get batters to chase outside the zone. That’s resulted in an unflattering 7.8% walk rate, which is the lowest it’s been since 2021. Therein lies part of the concern in betting on Boyd, as he’s primed for regression at the worst time of year. The Guardians’ southpaw is operating below his expected ERA, implying that he’s on the precipice of a correction phase, which the Yankees should facilitate. The Bronx Bombers ended the regular season tied for the fifth-most home runs off lefties and have picked up where they left off in the postseason. In a limited sample, the Yankees have a .795 OPS versus southpaws, with an innate ability to get on base. Boyd doesn’t possess the arsenal to limit that attack and could be burned early in Game 3. In the end, we’re betting on another Yankees’ triumph.
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Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 3 Best Bet Total: Over 7.5
Still, we anticipate a better showing from Cleveland’s offense at home. Progressive Field has been a safe haven for the Guardians all season, with their OPS jumping 50 points compared to their road splits. That increase is reflected in their on-base and slugging percentages, with their power metric representing the more substantive improvement. Cleveland’s slugging percentage jumps nearly 40 points when insulated by its home faithful. That’s bad news for Clarke Schmidt, who’s toting a 5.78 ERA across his past three starts. While they’re expected to come up short again in Game 3, the Guardians possess the offensive firepower to get this one over the total.
Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 3 Best Player Props
Juan Soto to Record an RBI +190
One player being overlooked in the player prop market is Juan Soto. He’s currently installed as a mid-range +190 option to record an RBI. Still, several factors are working in his favor. First, he’s an analytics darling. The four-time Silver Slugger ranks in the 99th percentile or better in most categories, including barrel and hard-hit rates, contributing to a superb .658 expected slugging percentage. Second, he hits lefties just as well as righties, giving him an edge irrespective of pitching matchup. Soto has a .999 OPS against righties, dropping marginally to .966 off southpaws. Lastly, the Yankees outfielder will have ample opportunity to produce from the top of the order. Soto has recorded a hit in three straight games, driving in a run in three of his past four. Whether against Boyd or any Guardians’ relievers, Soto can be counted on to record an RBI in Game 3.
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