NBA Awards Forecast: Best Bets for MVP, ROY, DPOY, 6th Man & More

Coach of the Year - Mark Daigneault +200

This year's Coach of the Year award boils down to two candidates -- Mark Daigneault and Chris Finch. Both coaches have significant accomplishments to boast about, but we give the edge to Daigneault, given his contrasting results year-over-year. 

Daigneault has finally unlocked the long-awaited potential of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over the past three seasons, Daigneault has posted an underwhelming .364 points percentage in OKC, finishing no higher than tenth in the Western Conference standings. This year, he has the Thunder competing for the top spot in the conference, sitting just 1.5 games behind Finch and the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

We also have to credit Daigneault for extracting the most from his roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in the MVP conversation, with Chet Holmgren competing for ROY and hanging around as a potential DPOY. 

The T-Wolves have been trending up for the past couple of years under Finch, but the more dramatic turnaround belongs to Daigneault. We're betting that gives him the advantage as this season's Coach of the Year.

Rookie of the Year - Victor Wembanyama -600

When the San Antonio Spurs drafted Victor Wembanyama with the first overall pick in last year's draft, they knew exactly what they were getting. Thankfully, the 7'4" Frenchman has panned out exactly as anticipated, leading this year's class of rookies. 

Wembanyama is unstoppable in the paint. The big man is averaging a double-double, putting up 20.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game. But we also can't discount his defensive abilities, as Wemby leads the league with 3.2 blocks per game, with a team-leading 2.6 Defensive Win Shares. 

Barring a season-ending injury, no one is catching Wembanyama as Rookie of the Year.

Defensive Player of the Year - Rudy Gobert -700

From 2017 to 2021, Rudy Gobert reigned supreme as the Defensive Player of the Year. Over that stretch, Gobert claimed three of the four trophies, establishing himself as the pre-eminent defensive player in the NBA. Although he hasn't matched that effort over the past couple of seasons, he's back in DPOY form in 2023-24 and the odds-on favorite to take home this year's award.

The Minnesota Timberwolves center has re-asserted himself as the best defensive player. His 2.1 blocks, 9.0 defensive rebounds, and 3.0 personal fouls per game all point toward the same conclusion -- Gobert plays defense the right way. 

Predictably, those traditional stats correlate with solid analytics. Gobert leads the NBA in Defensive Win Shares (4.2), putting his previous career-high of 6.0 within reach. Irrespective of whether Gobert reaches that high mark, he remains the preferred candidate in the DPOY futures market.

6th Man - Malik Monk -125

The Sixth Man of the Year award is one of the more wide-open races in the NBA futures market, with several players having conceivable paths to the trophy. Although taking a stance on Norman Powell at +750 is tempting, the distinction belongs to Malik Monk.

Monk has been sensational off the bench for the Sacramento Kings. Despite coming off the bench in every game this season, the former first-round pick is averaging a career-best 15.1 points and 5.3 assists per game. Further, those benchmarks put him third on the Kings in both categories, distinguishing Monk as the best bench player in the game. 

One of the factors working against Powell is that he's fallen off last year's pace. Powell's points per game have dropped from 17.0 to 13.4, giving the impression that his best season was 2022-23. 

Monk is our best bet to win this year's Sixth Man. 

Coach of the Year - Mark Daigneault +200

This year's Coach of the Year award boils down to two candidates -- Mark Daigneault and Chris Finch. Both coaches have significant accomplishments to boast about, but we give the edge to Daigneault, given his contrasting results year-over-year. 

Daigneault has finally unlocked the long-awaited potential of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over the past three seasons, Daigneault has posted an underwhelming .364 points percentage in OKC, finishing no higher than tenth in the Western Conference standings. This year, he has the Thunder competing for the top spot in the conference, sitting just 1.5 games behind Finch and the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

We also have to credit Daigneault for extracting the most from his roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in the MVP conversation, with Chet Holmgren competing for ROY and hanging around as a potential DPOY. 

The T-Wolves have been trending up for the past couple of years under Finch, but the more dramatic turnaround belongs to Daigneault. We're betting that gives him the advantage as this season's Coach of the Year.