NBA Best Bets: Top Basketball Betting Picks for Wednesday (Nov. 5)

Wednesday’s NBA slate features two matchups defined by shaky defenses and inconsistent offenses, setting up strong betting value on both totals and spreads. The Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers have been hemorrhaging points early, ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are laying a massive number at home against a scrappy Washington Wizards squad that’s quietly competed with playoff teams despite its record. Boston’s offensive rhythm remains a work in progress, creating a spot where taking the Wizards could be the sharper side tonight.

Let’s dive into a pair of plays on a busy Wednesday night in the Association.

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Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers Over 232.5 (-112)

The Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers have resembled Swiss Cheese in the season’s early going, you know, because their defenses are full of holes. Brooklyn ranks dead last, allowing 127.6 points per game, while the Pacers are just a few slots ahead at 26th, giving up 120.6 a contest. Opponents shoot 52.8 percent against the Nets, the worst mark in the league, while Indiana is more respectable, ranking 15th at 46.9 percent.

While the Pacers contain the three well, Brooklyn is horrible, giving up the 27th-most triples in basketball at 15.0 per game. Last year’s Eastern Conference champions are strong on the perimeter, but their defensive success does not translate to the paint, where Indiana ranks 21st, giving up 53.1 points per game. Brooklyn is not any better, sitting 29th, allowing 56.6 down low. To the surprise of no one, Brooklyn sports the worst defensive rating in the league at 128.5, while Indiana is more respectable near the middle of the NBA at 114.7.

On the offensive side of the ball, both teams leave much to be desired. Indiana ranks 28th with an offensive rating of 108.6, while the Nets are 21st at 113.0. The Pacers average 112.9 points per game, while Brooklyn is scoring at a 111.9 points per game pace. Brooklyn has had some success with the three-ball, ranking around the middle of the league, hitting 13.4 per game on a less-than-respectable 32.4% from deep. This translates to volume shooting for the Nets, something we’ll need to get over 232.5 points. Where Indiana has been dreadful from deep, they have been respectable at close range, scoring 47.7 points per game in the paint, which is just below the league average.

While neither team is an offensive juggernaut, both have struggled mightily on the defensive end. Facing a porous defense is the perfect recipe for letting shots fly and putting more points on the board. That’s what I’m baking an over pie tonight. 

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Washington Wizards +12 Spread (-110) at Boston Celtics

It’s been a tough start for a very different-looking Boston Celtics squad. Gone are Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Jrue Holiday, who the Celts shipped out in the offseason, while Jayson Tatum continues to work his way back from an Achilles injury suffered in last year’s playoffs. With Jaylen Brown leading the way, Boston has sputtered out to a 3-5 record, worlds away from the championship-calibre squad we’ve been used to seeing over the past few years.

The Celtics sit third from the bottom, scoring just 110.5 points per game on an abysmal 43.3 percent field goal rate. Boston has been nearly invisible in the paint, scoring the second-fewest points at 40 per game there. They’ve also had trouble pushing the pace, ranking 24th in fastbreak points at 13.8 per game. This team has become a side that settles for the outside shot, rarely pushing the defense to get out and run, or double down low. The result is a one-dimensional offense that has become predictable and can quickly shoot its way out of games.

At 1-6, albeit their lone win coming on the road, the Washington Wizards are no contenders. As has been common practice over the past few years, the rebuilding continues in the Nation’s Capital. Washington sits in the bottom half of the league in points per game and points allowed. While they have regularly been beaten by double digits, they have managed to somewhat hang around, with a win over the Dallas Mavericks and a 13-point defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks, two teams more talented than Boston. They took the Philadelphia 76ers, a team that has already beaten the Celtics this year, to overtime and can pose some matchup problems. 

While this version of the Celtics is not a championship contender, I concede they are better than the hapless Wizards. That said, this spread is way too big for a mediocre team like Boston, which lacks depth and scoring punch. I like this game to be a grind-it-out, slow-paced battle with Washington hanging around in the fourth.

WSH vs BOS Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Wednesday NBA Best Bets

• Nets at Pacers Over 232.5 (-112)
• Wizards +12 Spread (-110)

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