NBA Best Bets Today: 76ers vs. Knicks and Timberwolves vs. Spurs Picks

The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs has officially finished chewing up its victims, and we are moving straight into the second round. While some teams are limping out of seven-game wars, others have been sitting in the lab, waiting for things to shift in their favor.

With the bracket tightening and the markets moving, it’s time to look at where the smart money is landing on Kalshi. We’re targeting two specific spots for Monday’s doubleheader: a defensive lockdown in the Garden and “The Alien" taking over in San Antone.

The New York Knicks are our pick to win the NBA Championship. Find out why here.

Pick 1: Philadelphia 76ers Team Total Under 103.5 Points

Market: No on Over 103.5 Points (trading at 52 cents)
Matchup: Game 1 @ New York Knicks (May 4, 8:00 PM)

The New York Knicks spent the regular season building an unshakable defensive engine, finishing as a top-five unit in nearly every meaningful category. They have already proven they can hold down the Philadelphia 76ers, limiting the Sixers to just 89 points in their most recent meeting back in February. While Joel Embiid missed that game, his current health status isn’t exactly a green light for a high-octane performance.

Why the Under is the Move:

The Rest Disparity: The Knicks have been resting since their Game 6 blowout of the Hawks last Thursday. No starter went longer than 29 minutes in that clincher, meaning New York enters the Garden with fresh legs.
Philly’s Fatigue: The Sixers are playing just two days after a grueling, seven-game war against the Celtics.
Embiid’s Crucible: Embiid is battling a hip issue and took multiple shots to his surgically repaired knee during the Boston series.
Playoff Slump: Philadelphia struggled to find their rhythm in the first round, scoring 100 or fewer points in all three of their losses while shooting just over 44% from the field in these playoffs.

Expect the Knicks to dictate this game at MSG early with a physical, slow-paced defense that keeps a tired Philly squad well below this number.

Pick 2: Victor Wembanyama Game High Scorer

Market: Yes (trading at 49 cents at Kalshi)
Matchup: Game 1 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (May 4, 9:30 PM)

If you’re looking for high-ceiling gravity, look no further than Victor Wembanyama. The Alien has been a total matchup nightmare for the Minnesota Timberwolves all season, averaging a staggering 34 points per game against the Timberwolves. With the San Antonio Spurs enjoying a full week of rest after dispatching Portland in five games, Wemby is primed to hunt his shot from the jump.

Factors for The Alien’s Dominance:

Seasonal History: Wemby dropped 29 and 39 in two meetings with Minnesota this year. He was the game’s high scorer in one and San Antonio’s high scorer in the other, bested only by a 55-point night from Anthony Edwards.
The Ant-Man’s Injury: While Edwards is expected to play, he is dealing with a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee. He has been noticeably limited, topping 22 points just once in his past eight games.
Career Year: Wembanyama is coming off a career-best 25.0 PPG regular season and enters this series as the best young player in the series.

With Minnesota’s primary scoring threat potentially hampered, Wemby should have a clear path to being the most productive offensive force on the floor. At 49 cents, the market is giving you a near-even price on a player who has spent the last week healing up specifically to exploit this mismatch.

Dunk on the sportsbooks tonight! Grab SportsGrid’s free NBA picks, NBA props, and NBA SGPs.