Thunder vs. Lakers Game 3: NBA Playoff Picks, Best Bets Today
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
The first two games of this series have shown a massive gap between these two NBA rosters. Oklahoma City has completely outclassed Los Angeles, winning by double digits in both games at Paycom Center.
The New York Knicks are our pick to win the NBA Championship. Find out why here.
Breaking Down the Thunder’s Path to a 3-0 Lead
Even when the Los Angeles Lakers get a massive individual performance, like Austin Reaves‘ game-high 31 points on Thursday, they still can’t seem to disrupt the flow of this Oklahoma City Thunder team. By leading the league in percentage of points off turnovers and maintaining an NBA-best 11.1 point differential, OKC has proven they can win anywhere. Now, they head to California looking to push the Lakers to the brink of elimination.
Let’s jump into my two top plays for Game 3.
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers simply cannot hang with the Thunder right now, even as the series shifts to Los Angeles. OKC completely outplayed them in both games at Paycom Center, holding the Lakers to just 90 points in an 18-point win in the opener, followed by a 125-107 victory on Thursday night. Even with Reaves leading all scorers with 31 points in Game 2, the Thunder never lost control. OKC led the league in percentage of points off turnovers at 18.5% during the regular season and has maintained that in the playoffs, ranking first among second-round teams at 18.1%. They have scored at least 20 points off turnovers in both games this series.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his squad have trailed only 15% of the time in this series and have routinely built 20-point leads. This dominance isn’t new; OKC beat LA by an average of 29 PPG during their four-game regular-season sweep. Even when the Thunder played in California without SGA earlier this year, they still managed a nine-point win against a nearly identical Lakers lineup.
I expect the Thunder to cover for the eighth straight time against LA tonight.
Ajay Mitchell Over 16.5 Points vs. Los Angeles Lakers
With Jalen Williams set to miss his fifth straight game with a hamstring injury, the Thunder have shifted a significant portion of the scoring load onto Ajay Mitchell. The second-year man out of UC Santa Barbara has filled the void perfectly and should be motivated for this homecoming game of sorts in California. Mitchell, the 2024 Big West Player of the Year, has carried that Santa Barbara scoring punch into the postseason, clearing this 16.5-point prop in three straight games while averaging 19.0 PPG in this series.
Since the postseason began, the former second-round pick has seen his workload jump from 25 to over 29 minutes per game. The Thunder are increasingly looking for Mitchell to lead the offense when SGA is on the bench, allowing him to play aggressively and get to the free-throw line five times per game so far.
The market hasn’t fully adjusted to Mitchell’s expanded role, and he should continue to find success against a Lakers defense that is struggling to stay in front of OKC’s guards.
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