TST Best Bets: May 12, 2026

With two teams sweeping their way to the Final Four, there are two spots remaining in the Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs. 

Both series still in play are knotted at 2-2, and in the West, we’re seeing Victor Wembanyama face his first real playoff test. 

The unanimous Defensive Player of the Year has put together some insane playoff performances through eight games, such as his 39 points and 15-rebound performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 to go up 2-1. 

However, the Wolves’ physical defense that has powered them to repeat Western Conference Finals appearances has managed to bother Wembanyama, resulting in a dirty frustration foul from the Frenchman that got him ejected from Game 4. 

The Wolves narrowly avoided going down 3-1 in Wembanyama’s absence, evening the series on its way back to San Antonio. 

Game 5 represents a pivotal moment in Wembanyama’s young career. 

Will his poor decision and ensuing ejection in Game 4 be the story of what flipped this series, or will it be a small blip in his first postseason that gets forgotten to time as the Spurs reach the Conference Finals?

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First Pick: San Antonio Spurs -9.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves

Rundown: After being in a dogfight with the Spurs sans their best player, the Wolves are likely to struggle against a returning and determined Wembanyama. 

Minnesota has managed to score more than 108 points just once in this series, and it was the game in which Wembanyama was ejected. 

The return of the DPOY puts a hard ceiling on the Wolves’ offensive output, meaning they will have to turn this into a low-scoring, defensive battle to take a 3-2 lead going back to Minnesota. 

While the Wolves have generally limited Wembanyama to average production outside of his Game 3 explosion, it has been in large part due to the extreme physicality they have guarded him with. 

While said physicality got Wembanyama frustrated enough to take himself out of the game in Game 4, his ejection along with head coach Mitch Johnson’s postgame comments shined a light on Minnesota’s defensive strategy. 

In an effort to avoid another altercation, expect a much tighter whistle in Game 5, which should play into the Spurs’ hands. 

Fresh from his ejection, expect Wembanyama to put together his best performance of the postseason in a comfortable San Antonio victory. 

Second Pick: San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – Over 218.5

Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

May 10, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper (2) goes to the basket between Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle (30) and guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (1) and guard Ayo Dosunmu (13) in the first quarter of game four of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Target Center.

Rundown: We’re going with a rare same-game parlay here for TST Best Bets, as Wembanyama’s projected scoring explosion should also result in this over easily being hit. 

The Spurs have put up 115 points or more in the last two games Wembanyama has played in this series, and have also seen key contributors step up like Dylan Harper, who led the team in Game 4 with 24 points. 

After absolutely suffocating the Denver Nuggets offense in Round 1, the Wolves have not been as effective against the depth of the Spurs offense. 

However, after looking nowhere near 100% early in the series, Anthony Edwards has rounded to form, putting up back-to-back 30-point games. 

Expect a high-scoring night for the Spurs akin to their Game 3 performance with 133 points, while Edwards has a big enough night to keep the Wolves from falling too far behind.