NCAAB · 1 hour ago

2026 College Basketball Crown Best Bets: Picks for Tonight, Apr. 1

David Connelly

Host · Writer

We’ve got a pair of College Basketball Crown matchups as Oklahoma takes on Colorado, followed by Baylor battling Minnesota to round out the slate! Check it out as we prepare you for an exciting night of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

First Four Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for April 1

Year to Date Record: 35-26 | Units: +7.49 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Oklahoma -9.5 (-105)

Where to Watch Oklahoma vs. Colorado

SportsGrid Matchup Page: OKLA vs. COLO
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: FS1
Date: April 1, 2026
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Oklahoma vs. Colorado Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Oklahoma	Colorado
Moneyline	-430	+330
Spread	-9.5 (-105)	+9.5 (-115)
Total (O/U 165.5)	Over: -115	Under: -105

Oklahoma vs. Colorado Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Oklahoma	Colorado
Direct Win Probability	80%	20%
Cover Spread (OKLA -9.5)	Yes: 52¢	No: 49¢
Total 165.5 Points	Yes: 52¢	No: 49¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

Similar to bowl season in college football, these postseason tournaments can be difficult to predict because players either enter the transfer portal or leave early for the NBA Draft.

We have a case of that here, as Colorado’s Isaiah Johnson, the all-time points leader by a freshman at the program, has already announced he will enter the transfer portal and will not play in the Crown. They will also be without starters Bangot Dak and Sebastian Rancik, each of whom also entered the portal since the end of the regular season. While the spread has moved a bit, we see a serious chance of a blowout here with Oklahoma still at full strength. Lay it with the Sooners in this spot.

For more College Basketball picks, check out SportsGrid’s predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!

SportsGrid Edge:

Where to Watch Baylor vs. Minnesota

SportsGrid Matchup Page: BAY vs. MINN
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: FS1
Date: April 1, 2026
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

Baylor vs. Minnesota Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Baylor	Minnesota
Moneyline	-178	+146
Spread	-3.5 (-115)	+3.5 (-105)
Total (O/U 148.5)	Over: -112	Under: -108

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Baylor	Minnesota
Direct Win Probability	62%	38%
Cover Spread (ARIZ -5.5)	Yes: 50¢	No: 51¢
Total 152.5 Points	Yes: 52¢	No: 49¢

Second-chance opportunities are what will decide this matchup. Over the years, Baylor has developed an identity under head coach Scott Drew of attacking the glass and seeking extra possessions via second- and third-chance opportunities on missed shots, ranking in the top 15 nationally this season.

Minnesota is not as apt to do so on the other end of the court, ranking dead-last in the Big Ten this season in offensive rebounding rate. It feels like the key factor that could decide this game, while the recent injury to Jaylen Crocker-Johnson for the Golden Gophers may also play a role in their inability to attack the glass without his size. Back the Bears and lay the points in this one.