NCAAB · 1 year ago

Bubble Watch on 2/27: Analysis of 16 Teams Around the Bubble

David Connelly

Host · Writer

Next Four Out: Iowa
You get this low on the list, and the margins only get thinner. While Iowa has done well to pick up some marquee wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State late in the season, it was painful to watch them blow their chance at a third over Illinois last weekend.

Two Quad 1 chances remain at Northwestern and home to Illinois, and they're likely going to need both to build up a strong enough resume to compete for an at-large bid. A loss at home to Penn State on Tuesday would crumble their case and virtually eliminate the Hawkeyes from the bubble conversation.
Last Four Byes: New Mexico
Just when it felt like New Mexico was getting safely into the NCAA Tournament field, they found themselves on the wrong end of one of the biggest upsets in the country this season on Saturday. Air Force entered The Pit and stunned the Lobos, handing them a Quad 4 loss that dragged them back down to the bubble.

We've still got them in our field with metrics sufficient to receive an at-large bid, but their margin for error to close out the Mountain West season just got much smaller. We'll see if they can bounce back in a crucial road clash with Boise State on Saturday night.
Last Four Byes: Seton Hall
While the predictive metrics continue to doubt Seton Hall, they continue to accrue impressive wins that keep them on the right side of the bubble. The most recent edition came with a home win over Butler on Saturday, extending their win streak to three games.

The Pirates' ceiling will be further determined with three pivotal matchups on deck, starting with a road trip to Creighton and UConn, capped off with a home bout against Villanova. If Shaheen Holloway and the Pirates walk away from that stretch empty-handed, they might have a bit of work to do at the Big East Tournament to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
Last Four Byes: Providence
The Friars have amazingly taken care of business despite losing their star forward, Bryce Hopkins, in early January. They have accrued five Quad 1 wins while avoiding any bad losses in either Quad 3 or 4. The ambiguity comes in when you try to determine how the selection committee will choose to seed Providence without their best player. Injuries are something they have factored into their seeding process in the past, so it will be worth watching where they put the Friars, who are safely in the field for now with plenty of impressive performances.
Last Four Byes: Virginia
Virginia is doing literally everything possible to choke away their invitation to the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers are averaging 44.7 points across their past three games, failing to score 50 in any of those outings. If they continue to be this abysmal on the offensive end, it's difficult to see them finding enough success to close the season and hold onto an at-large bid.

There should be a sense of urgency in Charlottesville because things could get even worse with a defeat to Boston College or Georgia Tech to close out the regular season.
Last Four In: Gonzaga
There may not have been a more important win for any team on the bubble than Gonzaga's victory over Kentucky in Rupp Arena a few weeks back. It catapulted the Bulldogs onto the right side of the bubble with their first Quad 1 win of the season, freeing them of the biggest blemish on their resume.

The Zags close out the regular season with a pair of Quad 1 opportunities on the road against San Francisco and Saint Mary's. If they could capitalize on those, they could be looking at wearing white jerseys for the first round of the Big Dance.
Last Four In: Wake Forest
Like Gonzaga's triumph over Kentucky, Wake's win over Duke filled a void within the Demon Deacons' resume that badly needed it. With it being just their second Quad 1 win of the season, it helped push them into our Last Four In due to their average predictive metrics ranking of 21.

There is still plenty of work to do for Wake Forest to ensure a spot in the field, but beating the Blue Devils was a massive step in the right direction. They are projected to be favored in each of their final four games per KenPom, so we'll see if they can improve enough to achieve single-seed line territory by Selection Sunday.
Last Four In: Ole Miss
Ole Miss was already flirting with danger for most of the season due to their dreadful predictive metrics, but their results-based numbers were far too good to exclude from the field. Those have taken a bit of a hit with five losses in their past six, and they are certainly trending out of the field as things stand.

They can nearly clinch a spot in the field if they beat Alabama at home on Wednesday night, but a loss would put things into further peril as they don't see another Quad 1 opportunity for the rest of the regular season. It's one of the more polarizing resumes in college hoops, and anyone's guess how the selection committee will evaluate the Rebels when the time comes.
Last Four In: Colorado
Colorado's case feels similar to Florida's a little over a month ago, who has now stormed up the bracket into our six-seed line after finally racking up some resume-building wins in January and February. The issue for the Buffaloes is that they have nowhere near the number of opportunities the Gators had at the time. Just one Quad 1 chance remains on their regular-season schedule in a trip to Eugene against Oregon.

They'll have to rely on their draw in the Pac-12 Tournament to further add to their tally of one win in the top quadrant. A slip-up against California, Stanford, or Oregon State would almost ensure their fate on the wrong side of the bubble heading to Las Vegas for conference tournament play.
First Four Out: Utah
Utah had a real chance to stop the bleeding over the weekend with a Quad 1 opportunity in Boulder against the aforementioned Buffs. They completely botched it in an 89-65 blowout loss, their fifth defeat in seven games. It's been an under-discussed meltdown from the Utes over the past month, as they have virtually played themselves out of the field heading into March.

They face the same fate as Colorado, with a trio of landmine games remaining against Stanford, California, and Oregon State before capping things off with a Quad 1 opportunity at Oregon. With how Utah has been playing recently, we won't hold our breath on them stepping up and winning four straight to get back on the right side of the at-large cut line.
First Four Out: Princeton
Since suffering back-to-back defeats to Yale and Cornell last month, the Tigers have ripped off six straight victories to play their way back onto the bubble. While Princeton lacks any Quad 1 result with a 0-0 record, their average results-based metrics ranking of 41 is simply too strong to ignore. They don't possess a bad loss on their resume, and that's a rarity when you get this low in the NET rankings.

The key strength of their case? An impressive 10-3 record in true road games. There's no chance of a Quad 1 opportunity popping up for Princeton, even down in Manhattan for the Ivy League Tournament. Still, they'll at least be in consideration on Selection Sunday if they narrowly fell to Yale in the championship game.
First Four Out: Cincinnati
Despite having a 5-9 conference record in the Big 12, Cincinnati's predictive metrics are strong enough to believe they still have a shot at finding their way into this field. The silver lining for the Bearcats is that the Big 12 is, as we like to refer to it, the land of opportunity. There are still a pair of Quad 1 meetings on their remaining regular-season schedule against Houston and Oklahoma.

Once the bracket shapes up for the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, there will be more Quad 1 matchups than not for Cincinnati to climb the ranks further. If the 'Cats don't find a way to make it into the field, it certainly won't be due to a lack of opportunity to build a sufficient resume down the stretch.
First Four Out: Texas A&M
This is the most confusing resume in college basketball. Despite being one of 12 teams in the country with six Quad 1 wins, Texas A&M has four disastrous Quad 3 defeats to offset their hard work.

It's four consecutive defeats for the Aggies, as they are undoubtedly playing their worst basketball of the season heading into March. With results-based metrics in the mid-60s, A&M will have its work cut out to get back into the field. The Aggies require some notable results to force the committee to let them in with a plethora of wins over the projected field.
Next Four Out: Butler
Over the weekend, we mentioned how the overwhelming number of Quad 1 losses - ten to be exact - may spell Butler's demise on Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs clearly didn't listen and picked up an 11th in a road loss to Seton Hall, further showing their inability to capitalize against quality opponents.

They are now down to 7-12 against the top two quadrants, a mark rarely getting you into the field in years past. There are no more Quad 1 chances left on the regular-season schedule for Butler, meaning it may be Big East Tournament or bust for Thad Matta's squad.
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh
Pitt felt largely left for dead by bracketologists after suffering a road loss to Miami last month, falling to 3-6 in ACC play on the season. In the month since, the Panthers have six of seven, including Quad 1 victories over Wake Forest and Virginia, soaring to an average predictive metrics ranking of 45 and entering the at-large conversation in the past week or two.

A road trip to Clemson is a colossal matchup that may determine whether they need the ACC's automatic bid to go dancing next month.
Next Four Out: Oregon
If the Ducks want to dance, the path is becoming glaringly obvious: They will have to beat Arizona in the McKale Center this weekend. It's the lone Quad 1 game remaining on their schedule, and it would give their NET and various metrics a much-needed bump to reach consideration for an invitation to March Madness.

Lose to the Wildcats, and it will take a deep run in the Pac-12 Tournament to claw their way back to the right side of the bubble.
Next Four Out: Iowa
You get this low on the list, and the margins only get thinner. While Iowa has done well to pick up some marquee wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State late in the season, it was painful to watch them blow their chance at a third over Illinois last weekend.

Two Quad 1 chances remain at Northwestern and home to Illinois, and they're likely going to need both to build up a strong enough resume to compete for an at-large bid. A loss at home to Penn State on Tuesday would crumble their case and virtually eliminate the Hawkeyes from the bubble conversation.
Last Four Byes: New Mexico
Just when it felt like New Mexico was getting safely into the NCAA Tournament field, they found themselves on the wrong end of one of the biggest upsets in the country this season on Saturday. Air Force entered The Pit and stunned the Lobos, handing them a Quad 4 loss that dragged them back down to the bubble.

We've still got them in our field with metrics sufficient to receive an at-large bid, but their margin for error to close out the Mountain West season just got much smaller. We'll see if they can bounce back in a crucial road clash with Boise State on Saturday night.

Bubble Watch on 2/27: Analysis of 16 Teams Around the Bubble

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