College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Mar. 5

We’ve got a Big Ten clash as Michigan takes on Iowa, followed by a MAAC Tournament showdown between Manhattan and Fairfield to round out the slate! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling night of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 21-17 | Units: +3.36 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Michigan -8.5 (-110)

Where to Watch Michigan vs. Iowa

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: MICH vs. IOWA
• Venue: Carver-Hawkeye Arena
• Location: Iowa City, IA
• Where to Watch: Peacock
• Date: March 5, 2026
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Odds & Market Value

Michigan vs. Iowa Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

The headliner of Thursday night’s slate comes at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, as Iowa hosts Michigan in hopes of stamping a signature win on their resumé ahead of the NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes have struggled to compete against elite competition this season, sitting just 2-6 in Quad 1A opportunities on the year. Because of Iowa’s dominance over lesser opponents and inability to hang with the big boys, it has put a bit of a gap between their actual on-court performances and their predictive metrics.

Double-digit wins over the likes of Oregon, Washington, and others throughout the Big Ten season have inflated their predictive ratings, and it doesn’t quite account for their struggles against the top teams in the league. Their two Q1A wins are at home against Nebraska and at Indiana. Those are solid wins, but neither comes close to the level that Michigan is playing at right now. Ultimately, when lines are set largely by predictive metrics, it feels like Iowa’s inability to play up to its competition goes undiscovered with this spread.

Back the Wolverines on the road here to handle business against an Iowa team that has not shown an ability to compete at the sport’s highest level.

For more College Basketball picks, check out SportsGrid’s predictive model. Our SportsGrid predictive model doesn’t stop at the spread. See which player props have a 5-star rating tonight. Unlock your betting edge!

SportsGrid Edge: Fairfield -5.5 (-115)

Where to Watch Manhattan vs. Fairfield

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: MAN vs. FAIR
• Venue: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
• Location: Atlantic City, NJ
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: March 5, 2026
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

Manhattan vs. Fairfield Betting Odds & Market Value

The MAAC Tournament tips off on Thursday night with the first round, and the back-end of the slate sees Manhattan and Fairfield face off for a spot in the quarterfinals. The two split their regular-season meetings, but the Stags are an improved team since their first meeting back in early December, when the Jaspers got the better of them. Since then, the gap between these programs has widened nearly 40 spots on KenPom, and Fairfield enters the matchup with wins in eight of its previous 11 contests.

The ramped-up return of freshman big Brandon Benjamin for the Stags is what makes this a play for us. The big man missed the team’s penultimate regular-season matchup against Siena and returned in a limited capacity against Mount St. Mary’s to close out the year. Given that it was Benjamin’s only game this season where he didn’t start, it seems like head coach Chris Casey was trying to ramp him up for Atlantic City. His return is monumental for Fairfield, giving them a legitimate paint presence that should help them push past the Jaspers in this spot. Lay the points with the Stags on Thursday night.

College Basketball Best Bets: March 5

• Michigan -8.5 (-110)
• Fairfield -5.5 (-115)

Conference tournaments are entering full swing, and there are plenty of betting opportunities throughout March. Best of luck!