College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Mar. 3

We’ve got a Sun Belt Tournament showdown as Louisiana Lafayette takes on Georgia State, followed by a marquee SEC clash between Alabama and Georgia to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 19-15 | Units: +3.61 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Louisiana ML (-102)

Where to Watch Georgia State vs. Louisiana

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: GAST vs. ULL
• Arena: Pensacola Bay Center
• Location: Pensacola, FL
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: Tuesday, March 3rd
• Time: 6:00 p.m. ET

Georgia State vs. Louisiana Betting Odds & Market Value

Georgia State vs. Louisiana Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

The conference tournament madness rolls on into Tuesday night! The Sun Belt Tournament tips off from Pensacola, Florida, on Tuesday night as Louisiana and Georgia State get the party started as the first game of a doubleheader in the first round of the week-long tournament.

There is some actionable injury news reported ahead of this matchup that we will be targeting. The Acadiana Advocate, a local newspaper in Lafayette, has reported that Louisiana’s leading scorer, Dorian Finister, is expected to be available for this matchup. The junior missed the team’s previous two games due to an undisclosed injury, both of which they lost by more than 20 points to Troy and Arkansas State.

Finister’s return should provide the Ragin’ Cajuns with a much-needed boost, and it provides a great bargain price on them to take care of business and advance to the second round on Tuesday night. Back Louisiana to get it done as the narrow underdog here.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Over 179.5 (-105)

Where to Watch Alabama vs. Georgia

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: ALA vs. UGA
• Arena: Stegeman Coliseum
• Location: Athens, GA
• Where to Watch: ESPNews
• Date: Tuesday, March 3rd
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Alabama vs. Georgia Betting Odds & Market Value

Alabama vs. Georgia Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

This is as close to the highest total as you are ever going to see for a college basketball game. Both teams pride themselves on efficient offense, a fast-paced tempo, and not much defense. Each rank inside the top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency and the top 12 for offensive tempo. It bodes well for an absolute barn-burner in Athens tonight, and it leaves us with no choice but to ride the wave and back the over as well. KenPom projects this total at 183, and some other books are creeping into the 180s as the tip gets closer.

It’s an incredibly high number to clear, but the game being a near pick ’em also works in our favor, with the chance for overtime being as high as possible. The deck seems stacked in our favor here to take the over, so we’ll do so and hope for some fireworks in this thrilling SEC clash on Tuesday night.

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