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NCAAB · 1 hour ago

College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 27

David Connelly

Host · Writer

We’ve got an intriguing Ivy League showdown as Yale takes on Cornell, followed by a marquee Big Ten clash between Michigan and Illinois to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 16-14 | Units: +1.71 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Over 165.5 (-110)

Where to Watch Yale vs. Cornell

  • SportsGrid Matchup Page: YALE vs. COR
  • Arena: Newman Arena
  • Location: Ithaca, NY
  • Where to Watch: ESPNU
  • Date: Friday, February 27th
  • Time: 6:00 p.m. ET

Yale vs. Cornell Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market Yale Cornell
Moneyline -205 +168
Spread -4.5 (-102) +4.5 (-120)
Total (O/U 165.5) Over -110 Under -110

Yale vs. Cornell Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi) Yale Cornell
Direct Win Probability 66% 34%
Cover Spread Yale -3.5 Yes: 56¢ No: 46¢
Total 165.5 Points Yes: 50¢ No: 52¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

If you are a fan of offense, this may be the game of the night in college basketball. Cornell is an over bettor’s dream. They are a run-and-gun offense that plays at a fast pace, with sharpshooting and elite ball movement. They also struggle mightily on the defensive end, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency within the Ivy League. That’s something the Yale offense will prey on in this one, a group that ranks top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency and second in the country in three-point percentage.

Between Yale’s efficiency and Cornell’s sheer volume of three-point shooting and possessions, this could be an absolute barn-burner. KenPom projects this game at a 175 total, and you are getting a great number here at 165.5. Take the over and hope either or both teams catch fire on Friday night.

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SportsGrid Expert Pick: 

Where to Watch Michigan vs. Illinois

  • SportsGrid Matchup Page: MICH vs. ILL
  • Arena: State Farm Center
  • Location: Champaign, IL
  • Where to Watch: FOX
  • Date: Friday, February 27th
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Michigan vs. Illinois Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market Michigan Illinois
Moneyline -122 -102
Spread -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115)
Total (O/U 157.5) Over -106 Under -114

Michigan vs. Illinois Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi) Michigan Illinois
Direct Win Probability 54% 46%

Cover Spread Michigan -1.5

Yes: 52¢

No: 50¢

Total 157.5 Points Yes: 52¢ No: 49¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

What an incredible matchup that we get on a Friday night from the Big Ten. These teams each rank inside the top five on KenPom, making it arguably the best matchup in the country of the entire weekend. There is one area in which Michigan does not fully excel on the offensive end: its turnover rate. They rank 14th in the Big Ten in the metric, an area opponents have often exploited to slow down their powerhouse offense. The concern for Illinois comes in its inability to exploit that weakness. The Fighting Illini rank dead last in the nation in defensive turnover rate, forcing teammates into giveaways just 11.5 percent of the time. With an offense that is so efficient when they take care of the ball, Michigan becomes unstoppable if you cannot get some takeaways. The Wolverines have been a force on the road this season – 9-0 in true road games – and we expect that to continue here. Lay the points with Michigan.

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