College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 23

Year to Date Record: 11-11 | Units: -0.51 (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Stephen F. Austin -12.5 (-120)

Where to Watch New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: UNO vs. SFA
• Arena: Johnson Coliseum
• Location: Nacogdoches, TX
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: Monday, February 23rd
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin Betting Odds & Market Value

New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

It’s a bit of a double-edged sword here for New Orleans as they make the trek west to take on Stephen F. Austin, who will have some external motivation ahead of this matchup. The Lumberjacks can clinch at least a share of the Southland Conference regular-season title on Monday night with a win in what is their final home game of the season. Head coach Matt Braeuer and his squad will be eager to get the job done in front of a rocking home crowd on Monday night.

As for the schematics of the matchup, New Orleans has mightily struggled all season with turnovers. Their turnover rate currently sits at 20.6 percent, which puts them in the bottom 20 nationally. Combine that with Stephen F. Austin’s elite shot defense that ranks in the top 25 in the country, and they could deal with some serious scoring droughts on the road here. It’s a hefty number to lay, but all signs point towards the Lumberjacks finding a way in a favorable spot to earn their share of the conference crown. Take SFA at -12.5 on Monday night.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Houston -1.5 (-112)

Where to Watch Houston vs. Kansas

• SportsGrid Matchup Page: HOU vs. KAN
• Arena: Allen Fieldhouse
• Location: Lawrence, KS
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Date: Monday, February 23rd
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Houston vs. Kansas Betting Odds & Market Value

Houston vs. Kansas Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

When you get to this time of year, superstars really start emerging in the sport, and they can single-handedly decide games. That’s what Kansas was hoping to get out of freshman phenom Darryn Peterson this season, but the projected No. 1 overall pick has not been able to consistently stay on the court over the past few weeks. There have been questions about his overall health, most recently raised by The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie. He put together a piece discussing how flat Peterson looked in the second half of their puzzling loss to Cincinnati, implying that he may not be at 100 percent right now. That notion feels too strong to pass up on at this point, and it does not bode well for the Jayhawks. The Cougars are desperate for a big win after dropping their past two, and we think they get it done over a Kansas team that doesn’t have their stud freshman at full health right now. Lay the tight spread with Houston.

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