College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 19
David Connelly
Host · Writer
We’ve got an intriguing American Athletic Conference clash as Memphis takes on South Florida, followed by an Ohio Valley Conference matchup featuring Southern Indiana and Western Illinois to round out the slate! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling night of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.
Year to Date Record: 8-10 | Units: -2.35 (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)
Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: South Florida -8.5 (-110)
Where to Watch Memphis vs. South Florida
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: MEM vs. USF
- Arena: Yuengling Center
- Location: Tampa, FL
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
- Date: Thursday, February 19th
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Memphis vs. South Florida Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Memphis | South Florida |
| Moneyline | +340 | -450 |
| Spread | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Total (O/U 158.5) | Over -115 | Under -105 |
Memphis vs. South Florida Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Memphis | South Florida |
| Direct Win Probability | 23% | 77% |
| Cover Spread South Florida -8.5 | Yes: 50¢ | No: 52¢ |
| Total 161.5 Points | Yes: 49¢ | No: 54¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
We faded them last week, and we are going to do so again here. This Memphis team has shown zero heart on the road this season, now down to 2-10 away from home. It stems from Penny Hardaway, unfortunately, being in over his head as a Division I coach, leading a team that entered the season returning zero minutes from 2024-25. This matchup also concludes a three-game road trip for the Tigers, one that began with that loss to North Texas last Thursday.
South Florida has dominated this conference throughout the season, with their three losses coming by a combined five points, two of which came in overtime. The Bulls will be ready to run rampant on a messy Memphis team inside the Yuengling Center tonight. You should feel comfortable laying the points here.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Southern Indiana -2.5 (-106)
Where to Watch Southern Indiana vs. Western Illinois
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: USI vs. WIU
- Arena: Western Hall
- Location: Macomb, IL
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: Thursday, February 19th
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Southern Indiana vs. Western Illinois Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Southern Indiana | Western Illinois |
| Moneyline | -148 | +120 |
| Spread | -2.5 (-106) | +2.5 (-114) |
| Total (O/U 138.5) | Over -118 | Under -106 |
Southern Indiana vs. Western Illinois Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Southern Indiana | Western Illinois |
| Direct Win Probability | 56% | 44% |
| Cover Spread Southern Indiana -2.5 | Yes: 52¢ | No: 53¢ |
| Total 138.5 Points | Yes: 52¢ | No: 50¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
We are going dumpster diving into the depths of the Ohio Valley Conference on Mid-Major Thursday! These two programs have combined for five Division I wins this season and will be desperate to get anything going in this matchup to spark a miracle run into the OVC Tournament field, albeit unlikely. The Southern Indiana defense prides itself on two things: Taking away the three and forcing isolation scenarios. They rank second nationally in three-point rate allowed, and third nationally in assists per made field goal.
The Western Illinois offense is the polar opposite, ranking outside the top 300 nationally in both categories, often struggling to knock down threes and sitting dead last in the country in assists per made basket. This is a dream matchup for the Screaming Eagles, who should be able to thrive on this stout defensive identity against the Leathernecks, an offensive system that feeds right into their defensive scheming. Lay the points here with the road favorite.
