NCAAB · 2 hours ago

5 Most Overrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s Rankings

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

#16 Virginia Cavaliers (4-seed)
The Virginia Cavaliers have had a terrific season and now sit 25-3 and 13-2 in the ACC. Ryan Odom looks like a great hire for the Cavaliers, and they are limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 45.2. That’s the sixth-best mark in the country and leads them to the 18th-best defense. The offense is not great, but it’s pretty darn good (31st), and the Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise.

That being said, Virginia’s resume is light on quality. They have only played in four Quad 1-A games: at Texas, at North Carolina State, at Louisville, and at SMU. They won those games, but none of those opponents were even considered for the top 16 in the bracket. The first truly elite team Virginia will play is on February 28 against the Duke Blue Devils. If they can pass that test, the Cavaliers absolutely belong in this tier. Until then, they seem overrated compared to teams that actually have top-notch wins.

2026 National Title Odds: +6000 (15th-tied)
College Basketball's Overrated Teams
The Olympics are complete, more than half of the NBA is actively trying to lose games, and the NFL Draft is still several weeks away. That means the attention of the sports world now turns to college basketball as March Madness is right around the corner!

The NCAA Tournament selection committee went through its annual mock exercise this past weekend and released its top 16 seeds, offering a first glimpse into how it is viewing the teams and giving every amateur bracketologist some data to chew on between now and the official bracket unveiling on March 15.

Which five teams did the committee overrate in their top 16?
#5 UConn Huskies (2-seed)
The Connecticut Huskies were named as the top 2-seed in the field by the Selection Committee and the #5 team in the field. Dan Hurley certainly has earned the benefit of the doubt with his recent success in the NCAA Tournament, but this year’s squad does not appear quite up to the standard recently set, and the Big East is well below the other top leagues in the country.

The Huskies have some really good wins: Illinois on a neutral, at Kansas (more on them later), and Florida on a neutral, but you’d expect a bit more than eight Quad One victories from a top-five seed. In addition, UConn has a really poor home loss (Quad Three) to Creighton, in which they surrendered 91 points. They added one more Quad One victory this week as they thumped St. John’s and got revenge for a loss at Madison Square Garden on February 6.

2026 National Title Odds: +1600 (8th)
#7 Illinois Fighting Illini (2-seed)
The Illinois Fighting Illini have a bit of an odd resume, and the Selection Committee placed them on the two-line with the #7 ranking. Brad Underwood’s team is loaded with skilled Europeans plus an incredibly surprising one-and-done freshman that has lit up the Big Ten, but a winning streak of a dozen games has given way to three defeats in the past five games. Granted, all three of the defeats have come in overtime, but the Illini are just 7-5 in Quad One games, and they added a Quad Two defeat (home to Wisconsin).

Illinois has a bunch of size and the nation’s most efficient offense, but they lack top-end athleticism, don’t shoot the three all that well, and don’t turn opponents over (365th in turnover percentage). That leaves them susceptible to shootouts, as evidenced by three of their past five opponents scoring 85 points or more.

2026 National Title Odds: +1100 (5th)
#8 Purdue Boilermakers (2-seed)
The preseason number one team in the country was slotted at #8 by the Selection Committee and placed as the final number two seed. As is clear, I had a bit of a problem with the two-line, and I think the committee did as well. Purdue has fantastic efficiency metrics: #2 offense and #25 defense. The only real negative on the metrics list is a failure to get to the free-throw line (323rd in free-throw rate).

That said, as has been the case for much of Matt Painter’s tenure, Purdue struggles with athleticism and size that can pressure and attack guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Iowa State suffocated them at Mackey Arena, beating them by 23 points. They lost on the road to UCLA and Indiana, and were beaten at home by Illinois, which scored 88 points. Michigan gave them a third home defeat, putting up 91 points in a comfortable win. Purdue is only 8-5 in Quad One games and just 5-4 in current Q1-A contests.

2026 National Title Odds: +2500 (9th-tied)
#10 Kansas Jayhawks (3-seed)
#16 Virginia Cavaliers (4-seed)
The Virginia Cavaliers have had a terrific season and now sit 25-3 and 13-2 in the ACC. Ryan Odom looks like a great hire for the Cavaliers, and they are limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 45.2. That’s the sixth-best mark in the country and leads them to the 18th-best defense. The offense is not great, but it’s pretty darn good (31st), and the Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise.

That being said, Virginia’s resume is light on quality. They have only played in four Quad 1-A games: at Texas, at North Carolina State, at Louisville, and at SMU. They won those games, but none of those opponents were even considered for the top 16 in the bracket. The first truly elite team Virginia will play is on February 28 against the Duke Blue Devils. If they can pass that test, the Cavaliers absolutely belong in this tier. Until then, they seem overrated compared to teams that actually have top-notch wins.

2026 National Title Odds: +6000 (15th-tied)
College Basketball's Overrated Teams
The Olympics are complete, more than half of the NBA is actively trying to lose games, and the NFL Draft is still several weeks away. That means the attention of the sports world now turns to college basketball as March Madness is right around the corner!

The NCAA Tournament selection committee went through its annual mock exercise this past weekend and released its top 16 seeds, offering a first glimpse into how it is viewing the teams and giving every amateur bracketologist some data to chew on between now and the official bracket unveiling on March 15.

Which five teams did the committee overrate in their top 16?

5 Most Overrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s Rankings

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