College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Feb. 26
David Connelly
Host · Writer
We’ve got a marquee Big Ten showdown as Michigan State takes on Purdue, followed by an Ohio Valley Conference matchup between Morehead State and Little Rock to round out the slate! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling night of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.
Year to Date Record: 14-14 | Units: -0.71 (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)
Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Over 142.5 (-110)
Where to Watch Michigan State vs. Purdue
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: MSU vs. PUR
- Arena: Mackey Arena
- Location: West Lafayette, IN
- Where to Watch: Peacock
- Date: Thursday, February 26th
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Michigan State vs. Purdue Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Michigan State | Purdue |
| Moneyline | +300 | -385 |
| Spread | +7.5 (-110) | -7.5 (-110) |
| Total (O/U 142.5) | Over -110 | Under -110 |
Michigan State vs. Purdue Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Michigan State | Purdue |
| Direct Win Probability | 26% | 74% |
| Cover Spread Purdue -6.5 | Yes: 57¢ | No: 45¢ |
| Total 143.5 Points | Yes: 49¢ | No: 53¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
We’ve got a sneaking feeling that this could be a really fun one in West Lafayette. When at the peak of their powers, both offenses are an absolute joy to watch with two of the nation’s top point guards orchestrating the court. Two aspects of both teams’ identities could help push this one over the total. Both teams are well-oiled machines when it comes to ball movement and finding the open man, each ranking in the top five nationally in assist rate.
On top of that, both are more than happy to let their opponents chuck up three-pointers, ranking inside the top 25 of the highest percentage of opponent points allowed from beyond the arc. Combine all of this with the aforementioned elite guard play we should see from Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears and Purdue’s Braden Smith, and we could be in for a bit of a shootout here. Take the over at this surprisingly low total.
SportsGrid Expert Pick: Morehead State ML (+142)
Where to Watch Morehead State vs. Little Rock
- SportsGrid Matchup Page: MORE vs. UALR
- Arena: Stephens Center
- Location: Little Rock, AR
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Date: Thursday, February 26th
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Morehead State vs. Little Rock Betting Odds & Market Value
| Betting Market | Morehead State | Saint Mary’s |
| Moneyline | +142 | -176 |
| Spread | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Total (O/U 139.5) | Over -112 | Under -112 |
Morehead State vs. Little Rock Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends
| Market Metric (Kalshi) | Morehead State | Saint Mary’s |
| Direct Win Probability | 42% | 58% |
|
Cover Spread Little Rock -2.5 |
Yes: 54¢ |
No: 49¢ |
| Total 139.5 Points | Yes: 51¢ | No: 52¢ |
Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange
This line caught our eye, given the recent form of both programs. Since the start of February, Bart Torvik’s T-Rank has Morehead State second in the OVC, while Little Rock sits in eighth, nearly 100 spots behind the Eagles. Morehead State is in the midst of a six-game win streak and seems to be finding its stride at the perfect time. It would be an incredible burst of momentum entering the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament if they were able to make it seven to close out the season and lock up at least a share of the regular-season conference title.
