College Basketball Best Bets: Expert Picks for Tonight, Mar. 4

We’ve got an intriguing NEC Tournament quarterfinal matchup as Chicago State takes on LIU, followed by an Atlantic 10 clash between Loyola Chicago and Saint Louis to round out the night! Check it out as we prepare you for a thrilling slate of college basketball with expert betting insights, matchup analysis, & top picks.

Year to Date Record: 21-15 | Units: +5.61 units (Minus-money plays are to win one unit, plus-money plays are one unit)

Dave Connelly is SportsGrid’s lead college basketball analyst with over five years of experience covering hoops, including his industry-leading transfer portal rankings and NCAA bracket predictions (seen on Bracket Matrix). An authority in Mid-Major Basketball, Connelly’s expertise extends well beyond the Power 5.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: LIU -11.5 (-110)

Where to Watch Chicago State vs. LIU

SportsGrid Matchup Page: CHS vs. LIU
Arena: Steinberg Wellness Center
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Where to Watch: NEC Front Row
Date: Wednesday, March 4th
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Chicago State vs. LIU Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Chicago State	LIU
Moneyline	+610	-1000
Spread	+11.5 (-110)	-11.5 (-110)
Total (O/U 137.5)	Over -112	Under -112

Chicago State vs. LIU Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Chicago State	LIU
Direct Win Probability	13%	87%
Cover Spread LIU -11.5	Yes: 52¢	No: 50¢
Total 137.5 Points	Yes: 50¢	No: 52¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

Backing a hefty favorite in something as volatile as a conference tournament can be a scary venture. Still, we like the schematic advantage that LIU gives us in their NEC quarterfinal against Chicago State on Wednesday night. Because the tournament holds games on campus rather than at a neutral site, the Sharks will be at home in Brooklyn for this one. They dominated Chicago State both times they faced off in the regular season, covering this spread on both occasions.

The matchup favors LIU inside the arc here. The Cougars are the worst team in the nation at two-point percentage allowed, with opponents knocking down a scorching 60.2 percent of their two-pointers against their defense. The Sharks have a hefty diet of shots inside the arc within their offense, ranking in the top 10 nationally, with 58.1 percent of their scoring coming from within the arc.

After shooting a combined 62 percent on two-pointers against the Cougars in their two regular-season showdowns, LIU will go back to the well in this one and hammer away that advantage against this lesser opponent. Back the Sharks to get it done and advance to the semifinals on Wednesday night.

SportsGrid Expert Pick: Saint Louis -22.5 (-115)

Where to Watch Loyola Chicago vs. Saint Louis

SportsGrid Matchup Page: ALA vs. UGA
Arena: Stegeman Coliseum
Location: Athens, GA
Where to Watch: ESPNews
Date: Tuesday, March 3rd
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Loyola Chicago vs. Saint Louis Betting Odds & Market Value

Betting Market	Loyola Chicago	Saint Louis
Moneyline	+2500	-10000
Spread	+22.5 (-105)	-22.5 (-115)
Total (O/U 155.5)	Over -116	Under -108

Loyola Chicago vs. Saint Louis Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Market Metric (Kalshi)	Loyola Chicago	Saint Louis
Direct Win Probability	4%	96%
Cover Spread Saint Louis -22.5	Yes: 54¢	No: 49¢
Total 155.5 Points	Yes: 52¢	No: 50¢

Real-time market data via Kalshi Prediction Exchange

Loyola Chicago is set to cap off one of the most disappointing seasons in the history of the sport. After being projected as a top 100 team in KenPom in the preseason and picked to finish fifth in the Atlantic 10, the Ramblers sit all alone in dead-last and are currently outside of the top 300 in KenPom. There may not be a team more looking forward to the offseason in the country than this bunch, but they first have to endure senior night for the league leaders in Saint Louis.

The loss of Justin Moore has clearly impacted this Loyola Chicago team since suffering a lower-body injury at the turn of the New Year. After returning for a handful of games throughout the end of January and most of February, the junior point guard clearly did not look right and remains out for the time being. The Ramblers become even more of a lost cause in his absence, especially in Wednesday night’s rocking senior night atmosphere for the Billikens. KenPom has this spread at 28, yet you can currently get 22.5 at most sportsbooks. The stack is against Loyola here. Lay the points with Saint Louis as they look to finish off the season 19-0 inside Chaifetz Arena.