Top 5 Schools Poised for a March Madness Cinderella Run: Paging New Mexico

Northwestern Wildcats - #9 Seed

East Region Odds: +4800
National Championship Odds: +25000

Another true long shot, the Northwestern Wildcats will have to reverse course on a year-end slide if they hope to live up to our billing as Cinderella. 

Northwestern doesn't live and die by the three-ball, but there is a correlation between losses and when it's not working. The Wildcats have a below-average three-point percentage in three of their past five losses. Thankfully, they stack up well against their first-round opponent, the Florida Atlantic Owls. FAU sits 134th in opponent three-point percentage, allowing their previous three opponents to go 45.5% from distance. 

Find out Coach Young's Team on Upset Watch

Of course, offensive efficiency doesn't absolve the Wildcats of their defensive shortcomings. Still, if they can get hot from beyond the arc, few teams can keep pace with them. That could help Northwestern to a couple of upsets, including dethroning the reigning champion UConn Huskies. 

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New Mexico Lobos - #11 Seed

West Region Odds: +1300
National Championship Odds: +8000

It's not only the Spartans primed for a Cinderella run through the West Region. The New Mexico Lobos have quietly asserted themselves as a force on both ends of the court. Arguably, with a less obstructed path to the Final Four, New Mexico could also bust a few brackets this weekend. 

Like Michigan State, the betting market is high on the Lobos. New Mexico is priced just behind the Spartans in both categories, coming in at +1200 to win the region and +8000 to claim the ship. But the similarities don't end there. The Lobos also possess championship-esque metrics, ranking 23rd in adjusted efficiency margin. 

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If there's any justice in the college basketball world, the tournament will deliver the Lobos to an Elite Eight showdown with the Arizona Wildcats. Few teams can hang with New Mexico on the offensive glass, and that will be a critical factor in pulling off a few upsets along the way.

Virginia Cavaliers - #10 Seed

Midwest Region Odds: +10000
National Championship Odds: +50000

Six seasons removed from their first-ever National Championship, the Virginia Cavaliers enter the 2024 edition as a play-in #10 seed. Still, several factors support the idea that the Cavaliers can chase their glass slipper in the Midwest Region. 

As usual, Virginia relies on a stifling defense to win games. According to KenPom, they rank seventh in the country in adjusted efficiency, limiting opponents to 93.3 points per 100 possessions. Moreover, we've seen them dial up that intensity in the latter part of the campaign. Despite facing the likes of North Carolina, Duke, and North Carolina State, the Cavaliers have limited four of their past eight opponents to 60 or fewer points. 

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Getting past the Colorado State Rams in the play-in game on Tuesday night could be the first step toward an extended run. The Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers have both looked ineffective lately, putting the Elite Eight within reach for the Cavs.

James Madison Dukes - #12 Seed

South Region Odds: +5000
National Championship Odds: +25000

One of the more popular betting angles that has emerged over the past few decades is backing the #12 vs. #5 seed. One team that fits that criteria in the 2024 tourney is the James Madison Dukes, who could parlay an opening round upset to a much deeper run. 

The Dukes have been one of the hottest teams in the country to end the year. Coming into the NCAA Tournament on a 13-game winning streak, James Madison hasn't dropped a game since January 27. Even more impressively, that's one of just three losses on the season. 

Predictably, the stellar Sun Belt squad has some impressive underlying metrics backing up that gaudy record. They sit 34th in the nation in effective shooting percentage, yielding 84.4 points per game and 113.9 points per 100 possessions. If they catch fire, no one is dousing the Dukes.

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Northwestern Wildcats - #9 Seed

East Region Odds: +4800
National Championship Odds: +25000

Another true long shot, the Northwestern Wildcats will have to reverse course on a year-end slide if they hope to live up to our billing as Cinderella. 

Northwestern doesn't live and die by the three-ball, but there is a correlation between losses and when it's not working. The Wildcats have a below-average three-point percentage in three of their past five losses. Thankfully, they stack up well against their first-round opponent, the Florida Atlantic Owls. FAU sits 134th in opponent three-point percentage, allowing their previous three opponents to go 45.5% from distance. 

Find out Coach Young's Team on Upset Watch

Of course, offensive efficiency doesn't absolve the Wildcats of their defensive shortcomings. Still, if they can get hot from beyond the arc, few teams can keep pace with them. That could help Northwestern to a couple of upsets, including dethroning the reigning champion UConn Huskies. 

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