2024 College Football Playoff: Who’s In, Needs to Win, On the Bubble, & Who’s Out

No. 17 Clemson: Win & They’re In, Lose: & They’re Out

Ceiling: Clemson's playoff hopes are alive and well, albeit contingent on a win in the ACC Championship Game. But even with a win, the Tigers will face a superior opponent in the first round and will need to pull off a road win to move on.

Floor: Conversely, a loss assures the Tigers of a neutral-site bowl game. This distinction wouldn't be well received by the Clemson faithful.

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No. 2 Texas: Ticket Punched

Ceiling: The Longhorns could usurp Oregon for the top seed in the College Football Playoff, but it would take a magical combination of outcomes. First, they must beat the Bulldogs in the SEC final. Second, they would need Oregon to lose in a close or controversial fashion versus Penn State. 

Floor: Like Oregon, Texas is destined for a top 5 finish.

No. 3 Penn State: Ticket Punched

Ceiling: With a win in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Nittany Lions would presumably leap ahead of Oregon. However, their position also depends on the outcome of the SEC Championship Game. 

Floor: While they are guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nittany Lions could see their stock tumble in a decisive loss to the Ducks. With a loss, Penn State would be forced into a first-round playoff game.

No. 4 Notre Dame: Ticket Punched

Ceiling: A Week 2 loss to the NIU Huskies seems like a distant memory. Notre Dame ran unchecked through the rest of their schedule, guaranteeing itself a playoff spot. They remain in the top four at best and get a first-round bye.

Floor: Without a championship game to look forward to, the Fighting Irish seem unlikely to fall out of the top six.

No. 5 Georgia: Ticket Punched

Ceiling: Georgia desperately needs to pull off the upset in the SEC Championship Game if it wants to avoid the perils of a first-round matchup. A win over Texas would propel them into a top-four spot.

Floor: While they've had a couple of close calls and looked unimpressive in other contests, the Bulldogs can rest assured of staying in the top 8 even with a loss.

No. 6 Ohio State: Ticket Punched

Ceiling: A first-round home game is an eventuality for Ohio State. But there's still the matter of figuring out who they'll host in the College Football Playoff.

Floor: The Buckeyes' season could suffer if they fire Ryan Day before the playoffs. They appear secure in finishing in the top 8 (-2000).

No. 7 Tennessee: Ticket Punched

Ceiling: Tennessee's two road losses prevented them from making the SEC Championship Game, but that won't keep them out of the playoffs. Teams will move around them, but the Vols are tidally locked into a playoff spot.

Floor: Tennessee's position in the top 8 isn't secure. Expect them to fall into a road game after Week 15's results.

No. 8 SMU: Win & They’re In, Lose on the Bubble

Ceiling: SMU continues to be undervalued, but without any marquee wins, that will continue to be the case. A win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game guarantees the Mustangs a spot in the playoffs, but the best they can hope for is a home game in the first round.

Floor: If SMU falters, they risk falling entirely out of the playoff picture. As noted, they don't have a robust resume. A decisive loss to the Tigers and SMU could be on the outside looking in. If that's the case, betting them not to make the playoffs (+300) is worth the investment.

No. 9 Indiana: Ticket Punched

Ceiling: Indiana is undoubtedly heading to the postseason, but the Hoosiers will have to take the long way to a Championship. 

Floor: Indiana can't move into the top 8, but we don't foresee them falling outside the top 10. 

No. 10 Boise State: Win & They’re In, Lose on the Bubble

Ceiling: Boise State proved it can hang with anyone, nearly defeating the top-ranked Oregon Ducks earlier in the season. Add a win over UNLV in the MWC Championship Game, and there's a strong case that the Broncos should host a first-round playoff game. 

Floor: A two-loss Group of 5 team doesn't look like a playoff-caliber contender, particularly compared to some of the two-loss Power 4 programs. If they lose, the Broncos will need some help from teams around them to get in.

No. 11 Alabama: Bubble

Ceiling: Alabama's sterling reputation could be the deciding factor in whether they make the playoffs. The betting market is fully confident in Bama's chance of making the 12-team field, currently listed as -430 chalk.

Floor: Three losses, two of which came to bottom-feeding teams, is a tough blemish to overlook. Still, only one of the teams below Bama can overtake them in the standings. Unless the playoff committee decides that Clemson and SMU belong in the playoffs, the Crimson Tide can roll into the first round.

No. 12 Miami: Out

Ceiling: Being the first team out of the playoffs is the best distinction the Hurricanes can hope for at this point. Miami is the 12th seed, but one of the Big 12 teams below them will inevitably usurp Miami in the standings. 

Floor: Unlike the teams ahead of them, the floor looks no better than the ceiling.

No. 13 Ole Miss: Out

Ceiling: Lane Kiffin is saying all the right things, but this is the highest Ole Miss can expect to rise in the playoff rankings. 

Floor: Expect the Rebels to fall a few spots when the dust settles after Championship Weekend.

No. 14 South Carolina: Out

Ceiling: The Gamecocks came out of nowhere in 2024. Sitting this high in the playoff standings ahead of Championship Weekend bolsters their recruiting power. 

Floor: South Carolina will earn a prestigious bowl berth, but it won't get any better than that. 

No. 15 Arizona State: Win & They’re In, Lose: & They’re Out

Ceiling: Arizona State survived the Big 12's madness, earning a spot in the championship game. A win guarantees a playoff berth, but the Sun Devils will likely still play their first-round game on the road.

Floor: ASU is in the running for a legacy bowl game with a loss, but they could get a less prestigious nod if it's an ugly defeat.

No. 16 Iowa State: Win & They’re In, Lose: & They’re Out

Ceiling: Like the Sun Devils, Iowa State needs a win to move into a playoff berth. Further, they're unlikely to crack the top 10, meaning a road game as a conference winner is the best they can hope for. 

Floor: With a loss, the Cyclones are relegated to a Big 12 bowl game against a more fitting opponent.

No. 17 Clemson: Win & They’re In, Lose: & They’re Out

Ceiling: Clemson's playoff hopes are alive and well, albeit contingent on a win in the ACC Championship Game. But even with a win, the Tigers will face a superior opponent in the first round and will need to pull off a road win to move on.

Floor: Conversely, a loss assures the Tigers of a neutral-site bowl game. This distinction wouldn't be well received by the Clemson faithful.

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