No. 8 SMU: Win & They’re In, Lose on the Bubble
Ceiling: SMU continues to be undervalued, but without any marquee wins, that will continue to be the case. A win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game guarantees the Mustangs a spot in the playoffs, but the best they can hope for is a home game in the first round.
Floor: If SMU falters, they risk falling entirely out of the playoff picture. As noted, they don't have a robust resume. A decisive loss to the Tigers and SMU could be on the outside looking in. If that's the case, betting them not to make the playoffs (+300) is worth the investment.