Big 12 Best Bets: Week 3 of the 2024 College Football Season

We are inching closer to the start of conference play. Big 12 teams continue to gear up for what will be the most daunting part of their seasons. But before next week, most programs have one final tune-up in Week 3. While the action has already started, our preferred wagers come on a busy Saturday schedule.

We’ve identified our three favorite plays from this week’s Big 12 schedule.

Big 12 Play (1 Unit)

North Texas Mean Green vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Spread: North Texas +10.5 (-105) | Texas Tech -10.5 (-115)
Moneyline: North Texas +340 | Texas Tech -450
Total: OVER 69.5 (-108) | Under 69.5 (-114)

We are returning to the Texas Tech Red Raiders well in Week 3, anticipating another high-scoring affair at Jones AT&T Stadium. While we weren’t successful in our pursuits last week, there should be no shortage of offense when the North Texas Mean Green come to town. 

Texas Tech’s scoring efficiency took a massive hit in Week 2. Although they put up just 16 points on the scoreboard, the Red Raiders still managed nearly 500 yards of offense. That brings their per-game total offense up to 515.0 yards, ranking among the elite programs in the FBS ranks. 

Still, the defensive concerns linger as the Red Raiders hemorrhage points and yards against. Opponents are averaging 44.0 points on 461.0 yards per game. Moreover, North Texas has the offensive wherewithal to exploit those issues, averaging 527.0 yards of offense and 43.5 points. 

This non-conference tilt could end up as the highest-scoring affair of the day, and that’s reflected in the total. Nevertheless, we’re betting the Red Raiders and Mean Green combine for more than 69.5 points.

Recommended Play: Over 69.5

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Bigger 12 Play (2 Units)

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Colorado State Rams

Spread: Colorado -7.5 (+100) | Colorado State +7.5 (-122)
Moneyline: Colorado -245 | Colorado State +198
Total: OVER 57.5 (-116) | Under 57.5 (-105)

Nothing we’ve seen from the Colorado Buffaloes this season supports they should be -7.5 road chalk, even against the lowly Colorado State Rams. Colorado eked out a win against the North Dakota State Bisons in Week 1, coming up nearly a touchdown shy of covering the -11.5-point spread. Subsequently, they were utterly out-matched against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Week 2. Consequently, we give the edge to the home side in this one. 

Colorado has transformed into a one-dimensional offense in 2024. The Buffaloes call passing plays 67.8% of the time, affording Colorado State the luxury of game-planning to stop Shedeur Sanders. While it might be easier said than done, the Cornhuskers laid out the blueprint for the Rams. Colorado’s offensive line couldn’t hold up against Nebraska’s bull rush, sacking Sanders five times. Colorado State broke through the Texas Longhorns’ championship-caliber o-line and should have no issues pressuring Sanders. 

We’re also expecting improved efficiency from the Rams’ offense. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is operating below expected levels, falling short of last year’s benchmarks in completion percentage and yards per pass attempt. That will be troublesome for a Buffaloes defense that allows opposing quarterbacks a 76.7% completion percentage. 

The betting price suggests as much, but Colorado State is the right side to be on. We’re backing the Rams as +7.5 home underdogs, but we wouldn’t write off an upset win at home.

Recommended Play: Colorado State +7.5 -122

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Biggest 12 Play (3 Units)

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Spread: West Virginia -1.5 (-115) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: West Virginia -125 | Pittsburgh +104
Total: OVER 63.5 (-110) | Under 63.5 (-110)

Ah, the Backyard Brawl. Separated by 70 miles, the West Virginia Mountaineers renew acquaintances with the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 3. While the Mountaineers defended home turf in last season’s encounter, they’ll face a stiff test against the Panthers on Saturday. 

In their only true test of the season, the Mountaineers were outclassed by the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 1. West Virginia mustered just 246 yards of offense while getting out-gained by a 211-yard margin en route to the loss. Their showing against the UAlbany Great Danes was much more substantive, totaling 553 yards, but that came against an FCS foe in their friendly confines. 

No such concerns are impacting Pittsburgh’s outlook. The Panthers sharpened their claws against the Big 12’s Cincinnati Bearcats in Week 2, pumping out 498 yards as the visitors. That’s akin to what they did against the Kent State Golden Flashes in the season opener, putting up 567 yards at home. Freshman quarterback Eli Holstein has been a driving force on offense, throwing for over 300 yards in each of the first two games. That’s a good omen for what to expect in Week 3, as the Mountaineers allowed 306 passing yards versus UAlbany and are giving up an average of 9.5 yards per pass attempt. 

Bettors appear to be fading Holstein and the Panthers’ offense, but we like their chances of keeping the ball moving on Saturday. This has all the makings of a last-possession game, and we are betting Pittsburgh emerges victorious in dramatic fashion.

Recommended Play: Pittsburgh moneyline +104

Record: 5-1-0 ($482)

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