Danny Mogollon

Texas vs. Michigan: Top 10 College Football Showdown

It’s Week 2 of the <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf">college football</a> season, and B1G Bets brings seven wagers on our card, including our first B1GGEST BET of the 2024 <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/big-ten-football">Big Ten Football season</a>.
Last Week: 5-0 (+6 UNITS) | Overall: 5-0 (+6 UNITS)
Bite-Sized Bets: 0-0 (EVEN) | B1G Bets: 3-0 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 2-0 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN)
ATS Bets: 2-0 (+3 UNITS) | Team Totals: 3-0 (+3 UNITS) | Game Totals: 0-0 (EVEN)
Remember, scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!
Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/picks">College Football Picks</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/player-props">College Football Player Prop Picks</a> every week!
<h2>BITE-SIZED BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 (EVEN)</h2>
<h2>Duke-NORTHWESTERN UNDER 37.5 @FanDuel</h2>
I was tempted to take UNDER on the Duke team total of 17.5. As we detailed last week, this is a Northwestern defense that was strong last season and returned 14 of 19 players who played 240+ snaps in 2023. They looked the part in holding the Miami RedHawks to six points in Week 1. The offense also looked like last year’s (better running, not as good passing) on the scoreboard (scored 14 points or less in six games), as they managed just 13 points. I’m not confident that the Wildcats will get 20 against the Blue Devils (a team total of 19.5), so I’m not betting they will cover the 2.5-point spread despite their defense. Throw in expected winds of 19.5 miles per hour at the Lanny &amp; Sharon Martin Lakeside Facility, and this one is an UNDER all the way.
<h2>IOWA -3 Iowa State @FanDuel</h2>
I liked the Hawkeyes better when the line was 2.5 earlier in the week, but I am still on Iowa at home. Twitter was having a lot of fun with the Hawkeyes last week when, at halftime, the score was 6-0. They finished with 40 points, a total Iowa reached once in 2023. Their 492 yards more than doubled last season’s average (234.6 YPG) and was their most in a game since 2019.
<a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/cade-mcnamara/39570">Cade McNamara</a> was 21-31 for 251 yards and three touchdowns, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/kaleb-johnson/39554">Kaleb Johnson</a> rushed for 119 yards (11 carries, 10.8 YPC, 2 TDs), <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/luke-lachey/39611">Luke Lachey</a> looked healthy with six grabs for 63 yards, and true freshman WR <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/reece-vander-zee/39629">Reece Vander Zee</a> caught two touchdown passes. Look, no one expects Iowa to win many big games because of their offense, but that’s more TD grabs by Vander Zee than any wideout had all of last season. Iowa’s receivers had three TD receptions in total in 2023, which they matched in Week 1. Undeniably, the offense is better, and McNamara is a significant improvement over <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/deacon-hill/39628">Deacon Hill</a>. Iowa State is banged up at linebacker, and OC Tim Lester knows how to attack the second level.
<h2>B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 3-0 | Season: 3-0 (+3 UNITS)</h2>
<h2>Iowa State UNDER 16.5 (-105) @DraftKings</h2>
Just as I did last year, anytime I’m backing Iowa, there will be a bigger play on the Hawkeyes defense. This top-five defense has returned 86.5 percent of their defensive production (second most in the country). In 14 games last season, Iowa allowed more than 16 points thrice. At No. 7 Penn State, vs. No. 2 Michigan in the B1G Championship Game, and vs. No. 21 Tennessee in the bowl game. You know who didn’t score more than 16 points? ISU (2.8 YPR, 4.6 YPP), in a 20-13 Iowa win.
With a bad offensive line, Iowa State will struggle to sustain drives. You don’t think about the Cyclones as a big-play offense, but that’s when they’re at their best: 29th in plays of 30+ yards, 22nd in 40+ yards, 6th in 50+ yards, and first in 60+ yards. Iowa’s is not the defense to get chunk yards against: 1st in plays of 30+ yards allowed, third in 40+ yards, eighth in 50+ yards, and 31st in 60+ yards. You have to earn everything against Phil Parker’s unit.
In the past seven Cy-Hawk matchups in Iowa City, the Cyclones have averaged 8.1 PPG and scored more than ten points once! Once! Take the ISU team total under in Kinnick Stadium.
<h2>Colorado +7.5 NEBRASKA @FanDuel</h2>
With potential QB1 in the 2025 NFL Draft in <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/shedeur-sanders/39517">Shedeur Sanders</a> throwing to one of the best-receiving groups in the country, led by fellow potential top-ten pick <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/travis-hunter/39438">Travis Hunter</a>, the Colorado Buffaloes will be able to keep up with the Cornhuskers in Lincoln. Sanders is a big-time throw machine, and Nebraska doesn’t have the pass rush to throw him off his game. Colorado’s offensive line is improved, and just as we said last year when we had the Buffs in Week 2 versus Nebraska, the lack of depth will catch up to them later in the season (it did), but it won’t hurt them this week.
Nebraska had a good defense last year and benefited from playing in the Big Ten West. Both things can be true. They faced Iowa (130th in passing), Minnesota (126th), Northern Illinois (105th), Michigan State (98th), Northwestern (96th), Purdue (86th), Michigan (82nd), and Wisconsin (71st). Bret Bielema’s Illinois was the third-most prolific passing attack the Huskers faced in 2023. Care to guess who was the most prolific? Yeah, it was Colorado, and the Buffs scored 36 points and put up 454 yards, including 396 through the air.
Too many pundits are giving Nebraska credit they haven’t earned. I’m not sure if I’m on the Buffs at seven (6.5 is a pass), but at 7.5, give me those points. Colorado keeps up, and even if they don’t, a backdoor cover could undoubtedly be in play.
Since Deion Sanders took over, the underdogs have been 10-3 in Colorado&#8217;s games. Take the points.
<h2>Michigan State UNDER 16.5 (-102) @FanDuel</h2>
This might be the best Maryland defense of the Mike Locksley era, and they’ve been trending in the right direction for the past two seasons under DC Brian Williams. It’s undoubtedly as deep as they’ve been in the trenches. They looked the part in Week 1, holding UConn to seven points, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 2.9 yards per carry.
UConn’s offense is pretty bad, as is Michigan State&#8217;s. The Spartans struggled to score 16 points against Florida Atlantic. They averaged 4.8 yards per play, including an abysmal 4.8 yards per pass by freshman quarterback <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/aidan-chiles/19819">Aidan Chiles</a>, who was 10 of 24 passing with two interceptions. Later, I will talk about how much teams can improve from Week 1 to Week 2, but a freshman quarterback making his first career road start against a Big Ten foe with an excellent defense (in the Shell!!!), ain’t it. MSU scored 16 or less in seven of ten Power Five games last season, including nine points at home against the Terps. There’s no reason to expect more from them this Saturday.
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<h2>B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 2-0 | Season: 2-0 (+3 UNITS)</h2>
<h2>ILLINOIS +5.5 Kansas @FanDuel</h2>
Remember when we said in our <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/article/college-football-2024-betting-preview-big-ten-best-bets-futures-predictions">season preview futures predictions</a> that Illinois was overrated at the start of last season and might be underrated this season? We were all over Kansas -3 in 2023 against the Fighting Illini. That was at Kansas. The game has shifted from Lawrence to Champaign, and the Jayhawks are an even bigger favorite, laying 5.5. We find value in the home team in this matchup for the second straight year.
Quarterback <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/luke-altmyer/22382">Luke Altmyer</a> started poorly (3 TDs, 7 INTs in the first three games) but played much better once he settled in, with 10 TD passes to three INTS in his final six games. He should be better in Year 2 at Illinois. Altmyer played very well when he had a clean pocket last year; unfortunately, he was pressured on 38.5 percent of his dropbacks, and the Illini had the 117th-ranked pass-blocking unit per PFF. The good news is that the O-line is much improved, and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/jc-davis/22429">J.C. Davis</a>, the new left tackle, was their best offseason addition. Also, fortunately for Altmyer &amp; Company, KU’s weakness is their front seven and lack of a pass rush.
Defensively, Illinois has a solid run defense, which returns most of its front seven. They are also an excellent tackling team. The Fighting Illini are a live dog.
<h2>B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 (EVEN)</h2>
<h2>MICHIGAN +7.5 Texas @FanDuel</h2>
Talk about an overreaction. Off a 20-point win.
Going into Week 1, Texas was a 3.5-point favorite in the Big House, which might have been slightly disrespectful. Now, at 7.5, through a full touchdown, the odds makers have gone full <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJzNUydlQ4I">“get your shine box”</a> on the Wolverines. If James Conway and Tommy DeVito (not that Tommy DeVito) aren’t available to have my back, I’m happy to go into any brawl with <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/mason-graham/45237">Mason Graham</a>, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/kenneth-grant/45253">Kenneth Grant</a>, <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/josaiah-stewart/45344">Josaiah Stewart</a>, and <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/derrick-moore/45257">Derrick Moore</a>.
And that’s exactly what the Wolverines plan to do…make Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff a brawl. This defense remains elite and held Fresno State to ten points, the fewest points the Bulldogs have scored since 2019. If I must convince you how good Michigan’s D is, you might as well stop reading now. That fearsome front goes up against a Texas O-line with a 10% blown block rate (96th) against Colorado State (per Sports Info Solutions) and averaged 1.8 yards before contact on the ground.
Was Michigan’s offense underwhelming? Sure. It was Week 1, and I believe in the adage that teams can make the biggest improvement from Week 1 to Week 2. Especially a team breaking in nine new starters on offense, including the quarterback and the entire offensive line.
Is it a coincidence that the Wolverines turned in their best drive when they needed to? That’s possible, of course. Or it could be something to build on after gelling in a game where they likely left most of their bullets in the chamber, knowing No. 3 Texas was a week away.
I’m expecting an improvement all-around from the Michigan offense. They found their running game late behind the powerful <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/kalel-mullings/45376">Kalel Mullings</a> (19 carries-92 yards-6.1 YPC). We also could see more of <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/cfb/players/alex-orji/45299">Alex Orji</a> (5 carries-32 yards-6.4 YPC) per headman Sherrone Moore.
The Texas Longhorns were tough to run on a year ago. That was a year ago. Defensive tackles T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II are in the NFL. Even in a 52-0 blowout last week, the ‘Horns allowed a 100-yard rusher.
To recap, we can take the defending national champ…at home, with arguably the best defense in the country, getting over a touchdown…after a four-point line movement in the spread, which coincides with a four-point drop in the total, which indicates a lower-scoring game and favors the underdog. This line doesn’t make sense.
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It’s Week 2 of the college football season with three B1G BETS on team totals and two sides for our B1GGER BETS to kick off the 2024 Big Ten Football season.

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