NCAAF · 11 months ago

College Football B1G Bets Betting Preview: Big Ten Best Bets for Week 4

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

College Football B1G Bets Betting Preview: Big Ten Best Bets for Week 4

A second straight losing week drops us below .500 on the season, but we’re still above water with our units…barely. Week 4 features 12 B1G games, including three against Power Four teams from the ACC/SEC, and four Big Ten conference games, including a ranked vs. ranked matchup tonight, as Nebraska hosts Illinois.

Last Week: 1-3 (-1.5 UNITS) | Overall: 7-9 (+0.5 UNIT)

Regular Bets: 0-4 (-2 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 4-4 (Even) | B1GGER Bets: 3-0 (+4.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-1 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 3-6 (-1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 4-2 (+2.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNITS)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 0-4 (-2 UNITS)

LSU OVER 39.5 (FanDuel)

Did you see what Indiana just did to UCLA? The Bruins are 100th in points per drive allowed, 109th in defensive success rate, 118th in dropback success rate on defense, and 80th in EPA per dropback on defense. A year after they finished seventh nationally in sacks (43), UCLA recorded no sacks against Indiana on 33 dropbacks, with just one QB hurry.

This week, the Bruins will face arguably the best offensive line in college football, led by offensive tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones, who are potential first-round picks. A clean pocket will allow Garrett Nussmeier (10 TD passes), with even more explosive weapons than the Hoosiers brought with them to the Rose Bowl, to pick the Bruins apart. LSU is 16th in offensive EPA, 11th in dropback EPA, and 14th in dropback success rate. Maybe UCLA can hit some big plays on the Tigers—we won’t mind, but there’s no way they can slow them down. Numbers aside, the eye test tells you the Bruins are a complete mess right now, with whispers of waning motivation coming out of Westwood.

Iowa -2.5 MINNESOTA (FanDuel)

The Iowa offense remains subpar but has shown flashes and signs of life. They are 29th in offensive success rate, including 14th in rushing success rate. They are 71st points per drive! Remember, the Hawkeyes finished 132nd out of 133 teams in scoring offense in 2023. If RB Kaleb Johnson (479 yards, 7,9 YPC, 6 TDs) were on Ohio State or Oregon, we’d be hearing some Heisman hype. They can run the football, and Cade McNamara can put up respectable numbers (63.9 percent, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). Remember, last season’s starter, Deacon Hill, completed 48.6 percent of his passes with five TD passes to eight interceptions. Bill Connelly gives the Hawkeyes a substantial special teams edge (22nd vs. 83rd).

P.J. Fleck is 1-6 against Kirk Ferentz head-to-head. The Gophers won last year’s matchup 12-10 thanks to Iowa’s historically poor passing effort: 10 of 28 passing (35.7 percent).

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-2 | Season: 4-4 (Even)

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MINNESOTA UNDER 16.5 (FanDuel)

You know my rule: If I’m Iowa, I’m on the Iowa defense even more. Their early defensive numbers aren’t where we expect them to be, as they’ve given up far more big pass plays than usual over the past two games. I have no doubt Phil Parker will fix those mistakes as they bounce back from consecutive subpar defensive efforts (for them).

Minnesota hoped to upgrade by adding transfer quarterback Max Brosmer. Still, even with two games against Nevada and Rhode Island to pad the stats, the Gophers are 83rd in offensive EPA and 102nd in EPA per dropback. We also love the pace this game will be played, as Iowa is 104th in the country in plays per minute, and Minnesota is 126th.

The Gophers have failed to score more than 12 points in three of their past four games against Iowa, including both home games, and they will struggle to find the endzone against the Hawkeyes.

Northwestern UNDER 14.5 (@FanDuel)

I was very tempted to lay the points with Washington, but muscle memory will not allow me to bet against the Wildcats as underdogs. If Northwestern does keep it close, it will be due to their defense because the offense will not be able to do much against the Huskies. It’s a unit that lacks talent; they managed 13 points against Miami (OH) and 13 points in regulation against Duke. Both of those games were at home, and now Jack Lausch, coming off his first career start against an FCS foe, takes to the road for the first time in his career in Washington’s first Big Ten home game, a week after they lost to their in-state rival. It’s not the best spot for the unproven passer.

The ‘Cats rank 112th in offensive EPA, 109th in points per drive, 89th in offensive success rate, and 106th in rushing success rate, while Washington’s defense is 19th in EPA, 33rd in points per drive, 30th in success rate, and 10th in dropback success rate. Northwestern falls behind the chains (78th in early down EPA) and, thus, can’t extend drives (112th in 3rd/4th down success). Throw in a tempo that’s 113th in plays per minute (Washington is 77th), and it’s easy to bet against this offense.

Illinois +8 NEBRASKA (@Fanatics)

I’m slightly concerned about the Fighting Illini’s inability to run the ball against a strong Nebraska defense, but this is too many points for a Bret Bielema team. As we’ve written about this season, the Illini’s pass protection has significantly improved from last season, and this will be by far the best offensive line the Huskers have faced thus far. Both transfer tackles have been playing at a high level, and Luke Altmyer (6 TDs, 0 INTs, 8.3 YPP) has been the beneficiary.

For all the Dylan Raiola hype, Nebraska is 81st in success rate on dropbacks, and the freshman quarterback has struggled against man-to-man coverage, which Illinois favors (second-highest Power Four Cover 1 rate on defense). Keep an eye on NB Xavier Scott (3 INTs, 1 FF) and safety Miles Scott (2 INTs), while corners Torrie Cox Jr. and Terrance Brooks have more than held their own. This pass defense is 15th in QBR allowed.

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B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 3-0 (+4.5 UNITS)

MICHIGAN +5 Usc (@BetMGM)

USC has been the better team through three weeks, and the Trojans have the coaching advantage. But this line was Michigan -9 in the offseason, and the market has overcorrected.

QB Davis Warren has thrown six interceptions in his first three starts, which is why he won’t be making a fourth this Saturday. If we take those away, the scores in Michigan’s past two games would look different. Alex Orji’s job is to take care of the football and run it. Expect the Wolverines to get back to basics with Orji, Kalel Mullings (270 yards, 7.5 YPC), and Donovan Edwards grounding and pounding. They are 12th in offensive rushing success rate and 27th in EPA per rush. Better than you thought?

This isn’t the type of offense USC is accustomed to defending. The Trojans are 6-6 under Lincoln Riley against teams that used a two-tight end formation (per Bill Connelly), which the Wolverines have run 36 percent of the time. That number could be higher on Saturday. USC’s defense hasn’t been great on early downs (105th EPA), and staying ahead of the chains plays heavily into an Orji-run attack.

On the flip side, and I say this without shade, let’s not put Miller Moss in the same class as Quinn Ewers just yet. Also, USC’s offensive line isn’t the same caliber as Texas, and they had trouble against an LSU defensive line that isn’t the same caliber as Michigan. This is Moss’s first road test as a starting QB, and in games that Riley’s teams have been favored on the road, the Trojans are 2-7. Push it back to his days at Oklahoma, and he’s 3-10 ATS as a road favorite since 2021.

Regardless of all the chatter surrounding Michigan’s slow start, the reality is that turnovers, penalties, and terrible field position (on both sides of the ball) are killing the Wolverines—staples of success under Jim Harbaugh. Yes, Harbaugh isn’t walking through that door (otherwise, I’d be betting the house on +6), but these are correctable mistakes. Michigan faces what feels like a last stand on Saturday and responds with its backs against the wall in the Big House.

A run-first and run-second offense with Orji might lower their chances of winning, but they should improve their odds of keeping it close, and that’s all we need. Michigan’s tempo (131st in plays per minute) and a greater focus on rushing will limit possessions on Saturday, which favors the dog. Most cappers know this number is inflated and shouldn’t exceed three. But how many have the onions to back the Wolverines again? Scared money don’t make money!