NCAAF · 10 months ago

College Football Best Bets for Week 12: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

College Football Best Bets for Week 12: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

On to Week 12. We have seven Big Ten games, including four with one-score spreads, as UCLA, Washington, Michigan State, Nebraska, USC, Rutgers, and Maryland all take the field needing wins to secure bowl berths.

Last Week: 2-4 (-1.5 UNITS) | Overall: 31-38-1 (-1.5 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 11-21-1 (-5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 13-12 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 6-3 (+4.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 18-21-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 12-14 (+1 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-3 (-1 UNIT)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 1-3 | Season: 11-21-1 (-5 UNITS)

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ILLINOIS -2.5 Michigan State (FanDuel)

I keep hearing Michigan State is playing better. I heard this before they lost at Michigan and again before Indiana blew them out.

Just to be clear, the Spartans started the season 3-0. Since then, MSU has dropped five of six. The schedule hasn’t been easy, but where exactly is this improvement?

Illinois feels like the better team. Not by a lot, but better. The numbers back it up, with the Illini ranked 53rd in EPA margin, 61st in net points/drive, and 46th in net field position compared to the Spartans at 67th in EPA margin, 113th in net points/drive, and 123rd in net field position.

The unit I trust the most is the Illini’s passing offense (26th in dropback EPA, 31st in dropback success rate). Luke Altmyer has taken a step forward this season with 7.6 YPA and 16 TDs (3 INTs). Five of their six B1G games have come against some of the better defenses in the country. Sparty is not that. Altmyer will have time to find Pat Bryant (39 receptions, 582 yards, 7 TDs) and Zakhari Franklin (41 receptions, 515 yards), a pair of dynamic playmakers.

MSU’s pass defense has had a rough go, ranked 92nd in dropback success rate and 81st in dropback EPA. They don’t have the corners to match up with the Illini’s duo. Nor do they have the pass rush (99th in sacks) to pressure Altmyer. They have ONE sack in conference play. That’s resulted in a defense that struggles to get off the field (108th in 3rd/4th down success rate).

Illinois is also finding better balance on offense, with Josh McCray (4.9 YPC) and Aidan Laughery (5.5 YPC) running well in the past four games.

Since upsetting Maryland in September, Michigan State has dropped three straight on the road. Aidan Chiles (8 TDs, 11 INTs) has been sacked 21 times this season, with 12 coming in four road games (three per game). He’s a mistake-prone quarterback against an opportunistic defense (9 INTS, 11 forced fumbles).

Keep an eye on edge rusher Gabe Jacas (6.5 sacks, 3 FFs), who has caught the attention of NFL scouts, and defensive back Xavier Scott (3 INTs).

USC -7 Nebraska (DraftKings)

Both teams are in flux. Nebraska has replaced its offensive coordinator, while USC has changed its quarterback. Do we know how either move will work out? Nope.

What we do know is that Dana Holgorsen was hired ten days ago and will now call the plays for the Cornhuskers without having the time to implement his offense (which is different from what they’re running under Marcus Satterfield). Folks, he wasn’t part of the staff two weeks ago. This is unheard of in football.

Will Jayden Maiava provide a spark that USC has been missing? I don’t know, but I do know that Lincoln Riley recruited Maiava in the offseason to transfer from UNLV, coached him, and watched him in practice. Maiava has a big arm and no shortage of weapons to throw to.

Maybe Holgorsen’s addition will help keep Dylan Raiola in Lincoln for 2025, but Nebraska’s change appears riskier in the short term with less upside.

In addition, the Trojans are one of those schools that’s different at home. On the road, USC is 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS. However, in LA Memorial Coliseum, Riley’s team is 3-1 and 4-0 ATS, with wins of 48 points over Utah State, 17 points over Wisconsin, and 22 points over Rutgers, as well as an overtime loss to No. 4 Penn State, a game the Trojans probably should have won.

USC’s starting QB has been sacked ten times this season and only twice at home. Their offense is very good (14th in EPA, 20th in success rate, 38th in points/drive), and they should be able to throw against a less-than-stellar pass defense. The Cornhuskers are ranked 89th in dropback success rate. This is a bad matchup.

As for Nebraska’s offense—92nd in success rate, 85th in points/drive, 56th in EPA—do we believe Holgorsen will be an instant magic elixir? Running an offense that isn’t his? If they beat me, so be it. I can live with that.

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WISCONSIN UNDER 19.5 (FanDuel)

People might not think of defense first when talking about Oregon, but the Ducks are 9th in points per game (16 PPG), 9th in EPA, 17th in points/drive, and 18th in success rate. In Big Ten games, Oregon is giving up 14.0 PPG. Take out the Ohio State game; it’s down to 11.2 PPG.

They are devastating upfront. Jordan Burch (6 sacks, 8.5 TFLs, 5 BUs, 36-yard rush on fake punt in 7 games) is a freak, sophomore Matayo Uiagalelei (7.5 sacks, 9.5 TFLs) is having a breakout season, and DT Derrick Harmon (3 sacks, 6.5 TFLs, 9 QB hurries, 4 BUs) is one of the most impactful transfer additions.

They’re second in the Big Ten with 27 sacks (out of 57 TFLs). The Ducks will win the line of scrimmage, which used to be Wisconsin’s domain.

Like a vintage Wisconsin team, the Badgers need to be able to run the football. Unlike a vintage Wisconsin team, the Badgers are mediocre at rushing the football. Tawee Walker averages 4.8 YPC on the season—pretty mid-ish—and has found tough sledding against the better defenses he’s faced: 2.8 YPC vs. Alabama, Penn State, and Iowa.

If the Badgers get into a spot where they need to throw the football to keep or catch up against Oregon, they’re really in trouble. Braedyn Locke completes 56.8% of his passes for 6.9 YPA and eight TDs to eight INTs. How did he fare against those three defenses? Not very good: 52.1%, 4.9 YPA, two TDs, three INTs.

Wisconsin averages 11 points in those games, with a high of 13 against Penn State—more on this game below.

Penn State -28.5 PURDUE (FanDuel)

I got cute last week and took Ohio State for the first half rather than the entire game. We won’t make that same mistake this week.

Penn State is the ridiculously superior team: 9th in net points/drive and 11th in EPA margin, while Purdue is 132nd in net points/drive and 116th in EPA margin.

The Nittany Lions offense will be able to roll against arguably the worst Power 4 defense. The Boilermakers have allowed at least 35 points in six games, 45+ four times, and three opponents have cracked the 50-point plateau against them.

They’re awful. Purdue has played three playoff-caliber teams and lost 66-7 against Notre Dame (home), 35-0 against Oregon (home), and 45-0 at Ohio State last week. That’s an average score of 48.7 to 2.3 with an average margin of 46.3! Insane!

Penn State doesn’t have to worry about saving plays or players for an upcoming big game. It’s pedal to the metal to end the regular season needing style points with few quality wins on their resume. James Franklin is no stranger to pouring it on, and PSU has been 10-2 ATS as road favorites since 2022.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 13-12 (+1 UNIT)

PURDUE UNDER 10.5 (BetMGM)

There’s some extra juice here, but we can’t leave this pick out.

Purdue’s offense stinks. They’re 127th in scoring, 119th in points/drive, 106th in EPA (127th rushing, 114th dropback), 102nd in SP+, and 83rd in success rate (76th rushing, 81st dropback).

The Boilermakers have played five games against defenses ranked in the SP+ top 25: 7 points against Notre Dame, 10 points against Nebraska, 6 points at Wisconsin, 0 points against Oregon, and 0 points at Ohio State.

That’s 4.6 PPG. They’re at 2.3 PPG against teams currently ranked (7 points in three games).

Penn State is ranked 8th in scoring, 6th in points/drive, 10th in EPA (13th rushing, 3rd dropback), 2nd in SP+, and 10th in success rate (17th rushing, 12th dropback).

Getting into the red zone is going to be a problem for Purdue.

WASHINGTON -4 Ucla (BetMGM)

This is more about backing Washington than fading UCLA.

As we outlined last week, the Huskies are a different team at home. They’re perfect (5-0) in Husky Stadium, a tough place to play. Let’s focus on the conference games: Washington beat Northwestern by 19, Michigan by 10, and USC by five, covering all three.

In five home games, Will Rogers has thrown nine TD passes to one INT, compared to three TDs and four INTs on the road, while averaging 8.45 YPA in the friendly confines (7.0 on the road).

UW’s passing offense is 23rd in rating and 35th in yards per pass. During UCLA’s winning streak, they’ve beaten Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa, who are 113th, 112th, and 95th in rating and 115th, 87th, and 83rd in yards per pass. Rodgers is experienced, accurate, and makes good decisions with the football. The Bruins haven’t faced a receiving duo like the ultra-quick Giles Jackson (60 receptions, 620 yards) and the 6’4” Denzel Boston (55 receptions, 717 yards, 9 TDs) since Oregon.

Despite playing some of the worst aerial attacks in college football, the Bruins are 118th in success rate/dropback, 113th in points/drive allowed, 94th in opponent passer rating, and 85th in yards per pass allowed. The Huskies will be able to move the ball against this defense.

Washington has put up solid to impressive metrics this season—20th in EPA margin (37th on offense), 26th in defensive success rate, and 46th in SP+, compared to the Bruins, who are 54th in EPA margin, 107th in offensive success rate, and 73rd in SP+. Even where Washington is bad (77th net points/drive), UCLA is far worse (121st net points/drive).

Early in the season, the Bruins were underrated, but now they may be getting too much love because of their recent winning streak. Go with the Huskies in a must-win game (end the season at Oregon).

UCLA UNDER 20.5 (FanDuel)

The Bruins nipped us last week with 20 points against Iowa (we had UNDER 19.5). We’re hoping that extra point is all we need this Friday night.

UCLA averages 18.8 PPG and has scored more than 20 points twice this season, including at Nebraska, where they scored a touchdown on a pick-six. They’re 121st in points per drive.

Washington’s defense is 19th in defensive EPA, 23rd in yards per play, 30th in SP+, and 62nd in success rate, which stacks up well against the Bruins, who are 65th in offensive EPA, 95th in yards per play, 96th in SP+, and 107th in success rate.

UCLA has one of the worst rushing offenses in college football (122nd in yards per rush), which is how you’d want to attack Washington’s defense. Against the pass, the Huskies are second in yards per pass, fifth in passer rating, ninth in EPA/dropback, and 23rd in success rate/dropback. They’re 40th in points per drive allowed.

Garbers has ability but is inconsistent and turnover-prone, with a B1G-leading 11 interceptions. There’s been a lot of talk about noon kickoffs versus night games, and this is the first time this season the Bruins will be playing on the road at night.

In Husky Stadium, Steve Belichick’s defense has allowed 11 PPG and 14.3 in Big Ten play. Those numbers were built against Northwestern, Michigan, and USC, but that’s the point. Against mediocre offenses—like UCLA’s—the Huskies have been strong.

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 6-3 (+4.5 UNITS)

Oregon -13.5 WISCONSIN (FanDuel)

You know my take on Wisconsin. They can look impressive against the bottom half of the Big Ten, but the Badgers get exposed when they have to play up. Not only have they lost big to No. 4 Penn State (28-13) and No. 10 Alabama (42-10)—both at home, but they lost by more than two scores to USC (38-21) and Iowa (42-10).

Now, they face their toughest test against Oregon, which has won seven straight games by at least 21 points against teams other than Ohio State. The Ducks have beaten their six B1G opponents other than the Buckeyes by an average margin of 24.7 PPG. We don’t need that many points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get them!

Oregon is 6th in EPA margin and 10th in net points/drive, compared to Wisconsin, 58th in EPA margin and 71st in net points/drive.

Dillon Gabriel triggers an elite offense (7th in success rate, 7th in EPA, 11th in points/drive). The Badgers have some good defensive metrics but haven’t faced a passing offense that’s this prolific (15th in passing yards per game) and efficient (14th in YPA).

An even bigger problem is Wisconsin’s run defense (97th in success rate, 99th YPC), among the worst in the Power 4. The Ducks are third in EPA/rush and 16th in rushing success rate. Jordan James, who is expected to go, is closing in on 1,000 yards (946 yards, 5.7 YPC, 10 TDs) and is one of the most underrated runners in college football. He’s backed up by Noah Whittington, who is coming off a season-high 77 yards (5.9 YPC) against Maryland.

As we learned after the Ducks beat (and covered) Michigan in Ann Arbor, Dan Lanning takes extra pleasure in beating teams on the road, and the results bear it out. Oregon is 3-1 ATS on the road (all wins by 21-plus points), and they went 4-0-1 ATS on the road in 2023 (4-0 as an away favorite).