College Football Best Bets for Week 9: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

Two straight losing weeks…to paraphrase Jim Harbaugh on his inability to beat Ohio State before 2021. I will bring you a winning week of B1G Bets or die trying.

This week, we have eight Big Ten games to choose from, and we have placed wagers in five of them for seven bets: three sides against the spread and four team totals.

Last Week: 1-5 (-2.5) | Overall: 21-28-1 (-4.5 UNITS)

Regular Bets: 8-15-1 (-3.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 9-9 (EVEN) | B1GGER Bets: 4-2 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-2 (-4 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 12-17-1 (-5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 8-8 (+1.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-3 (-1 UNIT)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 0-3 | Season: 8-15-1 (-3.5 UNITS)

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OHIO STATE -24.5 Nebraska (Bet Rivers)

I wrote this a couple of weeks ago: Nebraska is a bully team. They can look impressive when they can physically overmatch and push teams around. When they can’t, it could get ugly. See last week’s Big Noon kickoff at Bloomington, 56-7. They might not lose by 49 again. But they might!

Despite their loss, which OSU is coming off of, the Buckeyes lead the country in EPA margin and are second in net points/drive.

The Cornhuskers gave up 215 yards (7.0 YPC/sack adjusted) and five touchdowns on the ground last week. Now they have to take on the dynamic running back duo of Quinshon Judkins (491 yards, 6.9 YPC, 6 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (424 yards, 8.2 YPC, 3 TDs), not to mention a mobile quarterback in Will Howard (5 rushing TDs).

The Buckeyes have scored over 30 points in every game and should hit 40 on Saturday. Ohio State also has a monster edge in special teams, with the fourth-ranked unit per SP+, compared to Nebraska’s woeful special teams, ranked 127th.

Part of their offensive success is a staunch defense that keeps getting the ball back for the offense. (See more below.)

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Nebraska UNDER 10.5 (DraftKings)

The more considerable mismatch is when Nebraska has the ball. Ohio State’s defense is No. 2 in EPA/rush, No. 3 in EPA/dropback, 5th in points/drive, 6th in early down EPA, 12th in rushing success rate, and 34 in dropback success rate.

OSU brings a stout and veteran defensive line and very experienced cornerbacks—bad matchups for Nebraska’s shaky offensive line and inconsistent receivers. Sonny Styles (team-high 32 tackles) has solidified the linebacking corps after moving up from safety, with Lathan Ransom (26 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 FFs) and Caleb Downs (22 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 3 BUs) making plays from the secondary.

They’ve held four of their five opponents not named Oregon to single digits. The Buckeyes are giving up 4.47 yards per play (seventh nationally), while Nebraska is 88th in yards per play (5.54 is not good, by the way, Coach Satterfield). For reference, Iowa is 67th, and Rutgers is 78th.

The passing offense is ranked 104th in success rate/dropback. Teams have seen the tape on freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who has no touchdown passes to four interceptions (9-2 ratio prior) in the past two games (21 points) against Rutgers and Indiana.

OREGON -21.5 Illinois (FanDuel)

Since some early near stumbles…Oregon has won by 35 at Oregon State, 21 at UCLA, 21 vs. Michigan State, beat Ohio State, and by 35 at Purdue. I’m expecting another blowout win over the Illini, who put a lot into beating Michigan last week—365 days, according to head coach Bret Bielema.

This is a bad matchup for the Fighting Berts, who managed just seven points at PSU and gave up 244 rushing yards/sack adjusted (5.8 YPC) to the Nittany Lions. They scored 21 points last week thanks to a fake punt and turnovers by Michigan but averaged 4.7 yards per play (which by now even Marcus Satterfield knows is terrible), including 4.4 yards per pass.

The only thing Illinois does well is throw the ball, so a repeat performance of last week doesn’t bode well heading into Eugene. Oregon has an excellent pass defense, ranked 12th in EPA/dropback and 40th in success rate/dropback. Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad is one of the top covermen in the country.

Teams have run on the Illini, and that’s precisely what I expect the Ducks to do. Jordan James (717 yards, 5.9 YPC, 8 TDs) is set for a big game, while Dillon Gabriel (77%, 9.2 YPC, 15 TDs) is as polished as they come under center. Illinois often leaves their defensive backs in one-on-one coverage, and Gabriel has the third-best passer rating (139.2) against man-to-man defense.

The Illini’s secondary also hasn’t faced a receiving corps as deep or as explosive as Oregon’s. Tez Johnson has 57 receptions and seven touchdowns, while Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden average over 15 yards per catch.

They scored 32 on Ohio State, and it should have been more. Look for the Ducks to crack 40 on Saturday while keeping the Illini under 20. Moreover, big favorites traditionally do very well in ranked vs. ranked matchups.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-2 | Season: 9-9 (EVEN)

More Illinois vs Oregon Analysis Below

Penn State -6.5 WISCONSIN (FanDuel)

Wisconsin is riding high on a three-game winning streak but is in for a rude awakening. They’ve done well against the likes of Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern who are a combined 1-8 in October and 2-10 in conference play.

The Badgers’ run defense has been the worst unit on either side of the ball: 88th in yards per carry allowed, 81st in success rate, and 56th in EPA. And that’s with only two top-55 rushing offenses among their first seven opponents (37th Rutgers and 39th Western Michigan). WMU is a MAC team, and RU is 44th in yards per carry.

Now, they must take on a Penn State offense that ranks 25th in rushing, 14th in rushing success rate, and 25th in EPA/rush behind the steady Kaytron Allen and big-play threat Nicholas Singleton.

This matchup is also a big step up in QB competition since they allowed 80 points to Alabama and USC. In four Big Ten games (including USC), the Badgers have faced the No. 12, No. 13, No. 15, and No. 17 B1G quarterbacks in passer rating. Do you know where Drew Allar stacks up? He’s third, just ahead of Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel.

With a new offensive coordinator and system, Allar is among the most improved passers in college football. He’s seen his completion percentage jump from 59.9 to 70.5 and his yards per pass from 6.8 to 10.2. The improvement in PSU’s passing offense is even more stark, looking at the advanced metrics: 2nd in dropback success rate and 4th in EPA/dropback.

I don’t think Wisconsin is ready for this smoke.

If you’re worried about PSU playing Ohio State next week, don’t be.

The six James Franklin teams that have won at least nine regular season games are 6-0 the game before they’ve played the Buckeyes, all by at least a touchdown and five by 24+ points. Also, after coming out flat in SoCal (trailed USC 20-6 at halftime) in their last game, don’t expect the Nittany Lions to take red-hot Wisconsin lightly—more on this matchup below.

Northwestern UNDER 10.5 (FanDuel)

Maybe I’m being stubborn with Iowa’s defense. I still believe they can turn the corner, and this would be the perfect week to do so against what might be the worst offense in the Big Ten.

Northwestern’s offense is ranked 129th in success rate (130th rushing, 119th on dropbacks), 128th in points per drive, 99th in EPA (104th in rushing, 88th/dropback), 130th in 3rd/4th down success rate, and 117th in early down EPA. The ‘Cats have scored five points or less in two of their past four games.

Veteran linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson remain tackling machines, and defensive tackle Aaron Graves (5 sacks) leads a D-line featuring four defenders with 4-plus TLFs. They are expected to get back playmaker Sebastian Castro, a late scratch last week.

This group is still ranked eighth in the country by SP+, 23rd in points per drive, 22nd in EPA, and 17th in field position. A significant edge in special teams (11th vs. 88th by SP+) plays in our favor, as will the tempo. Iowa is 104th in plays per minute, and Northwestern is 113th.

Michigan State UNDER 16.5 (FanDuel)

Talk about being stubborn, but hear me out. Michigan was the wrong play last week, but we were on the right side with Illinois under 20.5. For the Illini to hit 21, they needed short fields and a fake punt. They scored 10 points off turnovers (two Michigan fumbles), and their final scoring drive came thanks to a 36-yard run on a fake punt (out of 55 yards on the Illini’s longest drive). Even then, the under would have cashed in if Illinois didn’t convert a two-point conversion. Rant over.

Bottom line. The Wolverines defense is still damn good. They’re ranked 27th in EPA (25th rushing, 34th/dropback) and 23rd in success rate (28th rushing, 39th/dropback).

Conversely, MSU’s offense isn’t: 115th in points per drive, 74th in EPA (50th rushing, 92nd/dropback), and 75th in success rate (61st rushing, 70th/dropback).

It’s about more than impressive metrics. They have elite players. Tackle Mason Graham is as good as any defender in the country, while Josaiah Stewart (5.5 sacks, 10 TFLs) is an impactful edge rusher. Having CB Will Johnson (questionable) back would make us more optimistic about this bet. But even without the All-American, they held down a better passing offense than MSU’s in Illinois last week to 4.4 yards per pass.

If Sherrone Moore is true to his word about prioritizing protecting the football, expect a heavy dose of Michigan’s running game. This should limit turnovers and keep the score low, as will the slow tempo we expect to see from both sides (Michigan is 131st in plays per minute, MSU is 103).

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 4-2 (+3 UNITS)

WISCONSIN UNDER 20.5 (FanDuel)

Wisconsin has gotten fat against Purdue (52 points), Rutgers (42 points), and, to a lesser extent, Northwestern (23 points). The Boilermakers are 128th in yards per play allowed, the Scarlet Knights are 94th, and the Wildcats are 50th. These are not good defenses.

After averaging 8.1 yards per play against Purdue (which would lead the nation) and 7.3 YPP vs. Rutgers (8th), the Badgers were down to 5.4 YPP against Northwestern (95th).

Now they’re facing a Penn State defense that’s 12th in yards per play (4.51). Things are about to get real for Braedyn Locke (59.3%, 7 TDs-5 INTs) & company. Well-stocked with NFL talent, PSU’s defense is 8th in points per drive, 6th in defensive success rate, and 17th in EPA.

The Nittany Lions rank in the top seven in pressure percentage and pass-rush win rate. Defensive end Abdul Carter (4 sacks, 9.5 TLFs) brings elite explosiveness off the edge, while tackle Zane Durant (2.5 sacks, 5.5 TFLs) quickly breaks through up the middle. Safety Jaylen Reed does a bit of everything (39 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 BRUs, 1 FF, 1 FR), while athletic linebackers Kobe King and Tony Rojas (6.5 TFLs combined) are always in attack mode.

The Nittany Lions have held four of their six opponents to 12 points or less. I wouldn’t be surprised if they added the Badgers to that list.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-1 | Season: 0-2 (-4 UNITS)

None.

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