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College Football Week 5 Picks: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Best Bets

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Week 4 of the College Football season offers us a six-pack of Big Ten games, all in conference play.

Four of the six games feature teams from the Eastern/Central Time Zones competing against schools from the Pacific Time Zone. My buddy Brett Ciancia of Pick Six Previews dropped this nugget in his Pick Six Plus preview for Week 5: teams jumping two-plus time zones are 23-32 (0.396) overall, and 19-34 (0.358) against the spread since last season, including 3-5 straight up, and 2-6 ATS this season. Keep that in mind when picking this week’s games—I know I will.

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

B1G: Power Rankings | Bowl Projections | W5 Predictions

Last Week: 5-3 (+2 UNITS) | Overall: 15-12 (+3 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 9-9 (EVEN UNITS) | B1G Bets: 6-3 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 5-8 (-1 UNIT) | Team Totals: 8-3 (+3.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 2-1 (+1/2 UNIT)

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 3-3 | Season: 9-9 (EVEN UNITS)

ILLINOIS +7 USC (DraftKings)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

This is purely about the spot. USC’s offense is maybe the best in college football. Illinois is banged up defensively. All of that is true, but the spot screams I-LLI-NI!

Coming off an embarrassing loss on Saturday night, you have to believe Illinois will bounce back and give a much better performance this week. This is an experienced team with a proven quarterback and head coach. They’re not going to give up. This group was 6-2 ATS as the underdog last season (5 outright wins), including a 2-1 home record. They’ve done this before and believe they can do it again.

On the flip side, these Trojans haven’t done this before. They have struggled on the road, especially when playing in the Eastern and Central time zones. They are the poster child for the statistic above regarding teams that play after traveling multiple time zones.

In their first season in the Big Ten, USC lost at Maryland, Minnesota, and Michigan. This season, they did win at Purdue, but failed to cover the spread. It goes even further back. Under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are 3-10 ATS as the road favorite, with their covers coming at Stanford and at UCLA twice.

You need some X/O reasons? USC’s defense is still not championship caliber, ranked 103rd in available yards allowed. They’re especially vulnerable against the run: 124th in success rate and 111th in EPA/rush. Bret Bielema gets back to basics, runs the football, keeps it away from USC’s offense, and shortens the game.

Seven points are just too many points to pass up with the home dog.

Watch Mogollon Break Down Illinois-USC with Pick Six Previews Brett Ciancia

MINNESOTA -4.5 Rutgers (ESPNBet)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: BTN

I have been impressed by Rutgers’ passing attack. However, the problem is that they really don’t do anything else well. Minnesota has been the better team so far. Per game on paper, the Gophers are 11th in EPA/play, 12th in success rate, and 30th in net yards per play, while the Scarlet Knights check in at 55th in EPA/play, 70th in success rate, and 113th in net yards per play.

RU’s offensive line is still banged up, and this is their first road trip, so I expect EDGE Anthony Smith to have a big game and be disruptive. John Nestor looks to be a solid addition at corner, while Koi Perich is a star at safety. They have enough pieces and a quality scheme able to slow down what Rutgers will throw at them.

So far, the Scarlet Knights haven’t been able to slow down anyone. The defense is 135th in available yards, 123rd in success rate, 123rd in yards per play, and 103rd in EPA/drive. They gave up 38 points to Iowa last week!

Minnesota hasn’t been able to run the ball like they’ve wanted to. That will change on Saturday. Ideally, RB Darius Taylor (questionable) returns from injury, but even if he doesn’t, I like the way Fame Ijeboi ran the ball against Cal (85 yards) with physicality. The ability to run effectively is a game-changer for Minnesota, as it allows them to dictate the tempo and pace of the game. They throw when they want to and keep the defense off the field.

This is primarily a fade of RU’s defense, which will allow the Gophers to dictate the terms of the game. Having a week off to prepare also helps, and it will have redshirt freshman QB Drake Lindsey better prepared. He’s been solid (60.5%, 8.3 YPA) with the arm talent to improve, and if the Knights gear up to stop the run, Minny has more than enough weapons to make them pay, with a unit that averages 14.1 yards per reception.

Since 2021, P.J. Fleck’s team is 16-5 straight up as a home favorite and 10-2 with extra rest. Against the spread, they are 7-2 off a bye and 12-8 coming off a loss over the same time frame. Fleck and Greg Schiano usually do what they’re supposed to do, which is why we’re on the home favorite on Saturday.

IOWA UNDER 20.5 (-130 DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: Peacock

As much as I love their offensive line, Iowa’s offense remains suspect, ranking 98th in EPA per play and 100th in passing success rate. They looked better last week. Some of that was about progress, but a lot was about facing an inept Rutgers unit.

Indiana is the best defense they have faced in September. While they’ve scored over 34 points three times this season, those defenses were FCS Albany, UMass (119th in yards per play), and Rutgers (123rd in YPP). Indiana’s defense is 24th in yards per play, 11th in SP+, 2nd in success rate, and ninth in EPA/play.

The Hoosiers have 15 sacks (5th nationally) and look deeper up front than they did last season. Linebacker Aiden Fisher is still there to anchor the defense. At the same time, the return of Louis Moore (2 INTs), after a season at Ole Miss, has been a significant addition to the secondary, as he teams up with All-B1G CB D’Angelo Ponds. Their 10 interceptions will make Phil Parker jealous.

Iowa’s pedestrian pass catchers won’t get separation, so expect the Hawkeyes to be very conservative. Points will be scarce.

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B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 2-0 | Season: 6-3 (+3 UNITS)

WASHINGTON +8.5 Ohio State (DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS

I’m rolling with the Huskies. Ohio State has lost four regular-season games over the past three seasons. Three to Michigan, and at Oregon in 2024. Even in a national championship year, the Buckeyes fell victim when traveling to the Pacific time zone. Not only did OSU lose, but it was as a road favorite.

Is Washington as good as Oregon was last season? No. But I’m not sold that OSU is as good as they were a year ago, either. And we’re getting over a touchdown compared to +3.5 in Eugene. Huskie Stadium might be an even more challenging environment than Autzen, as UW has won 22 straight home games, the second-longest active streak in the nation.

I absolutely love dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams, who I believe might be the best QB in the Big Ten right now, and a Heisman sleeper if you’re looking for value. He’s a playmaker who can really sling it with the ability to make would-be tacklers miss.

His skill as a runner in the open field makes him the most dangerous player in this game. With his legs and Jonah Coleman (347 yards, 6.8 YPC, 9 TDs in 3 games), the Huskies will be able to run the ball.

As talented as the Buckeyes are, you can definitely make the case that Washington has the better QB-RB-WR trio, and how often have you been able to say that against a Ryan Day-coached team?

Julian Sayin has put up big numbers in the past two games. However, that was against Grambling and Ohio at home. This will be against a Power Four defense and maybe the most hostile environment he will face as a Buckeye. It’s a tough spot for your first career road start.

Statistically, these teams have been closer than you’d think. OSU has the edge in yards per play (4th nationally, UW is 14th), but the Huskies are second in net EPA/drive (OSU is 14th).

I don’t necessarily love Washington’s defense. Still, they’ve done an excellent job generating pressure with their defensive front. At full strength, they have a cornerback duo in Tacario Davis and Ephesians Prysock, who are both 6’4” and can match up as well with Ohio State’s wideouts as anyone. Davis is questionable, and his return would be a big boost for Washington’s chances.

Finally, this line is fishy. Over the past four regular seasons, OSU has been favored by single digits seven times (3-4, 2-4-1 ATS), always against a top-ten team, and four times against a top-three team. They played an opponent ranked 11th through 25th three times, with spreads of 14.5 (vs. #12 Oregon), 19.5 (vs. #20 PSU), and -15.5 (at #13 PSU). And in 17 previous games against unranked opponents under Ryan Day, OSU has never been less than a 14-point favorite.

Whether it’s Day being a little conservative with his young QB on the road or Williams being able to match the Buckeyes on the scoreboard, I expect this one to be close. There’s a reason the No. 1 team in the county is only an 8.5-point favorite over an unranked team (UW didn’t even get a single AP vote!), just the second time that’s happened in the past 20 years.

We wish we had grabbed the Huskies at +13.5 not too long ago, but we are comfortable getting more than a touchdown.

Watch Mogollon Break Down Ohio State-Washington with Pick Six Previews Brett Ciancia

PENN STATE -3.5 Oregon (BetMGM)

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: NBC

The Big Ten has a B1G 3 (Indiana might have something to say about that), and Penn State (one of the B1G 3) plays two of them, starting with hosting Oregon on Saturday night, in a game that will go a long way in deciding who makes the Big Ten Championship Game.

Through four weeks, the Ducks have looked to be the better team. Unquestionably more explosive. But what did the Nittany Lions have to prove against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova?

Oregon is one team that has bucked the time zone trend, going 4-0 straight up and 2-2 ATS when heading east. That’s nice when you’re traveling to Evanston, West Lafayette, or even Ann Arbor for a day game against a down Michigan team. Coming to Happy Valley, at night, with a whiteout crowd in Beaver Stadium against a top Nittany Lions team is an entirely different animal. Another Pick Six Plus nugget: PSU is 14-8 in whiteouts, 15-6-1 ATS, including 8-0-1 ATS in their past nine whiteouts.

Since 2022, when this core arrived in State College, Penn State is 22-0 at home as the favorite. So, yes, they’ve lost big games. But only when the other team is so much better that they are favored against the Nittany Lions in Beaver Stadium. Two of those teams (2023 Michigan and 2024 Ohio State) went on to win the national title that season. Maybe Oregon will make it three, but I need to see Dante Moore and company do it on the road against a top-five team before I believe they are this elite.

Almost everyone in the media has mocked “Big Game” James Franklin, and I know I have, once or twice. Dan Lanning is 1-2 on the road against ranked teams (having been favored twice), with the win coming against Utah with their backup quarterback. He’s also 0-3 as an underdog away from home (including two neutrals).

If you go position by position or break these teams down statistically, they are pretty even. Which is why homefield, arguably the best homefield in college football, is so big.

One spot where PSU has an edge is running the ball. Led by the duo of Nicholas Singleton (179 yards, 4.4 YPC, 5 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (179 yards, 4.4 YPC, 5 TDs), who both have over 3,000 yards in their careers, PSU is ranked 13th in EPA/rush and 16th in rushing success rate. This is an area where the Ducks have shown some vulnerability, with their defense ranked 54th in EPA/rush and 72nd in rushing success rate.

The Nittany Lions will establish the run (rushed for 297 yards vs. Oregon last year), and OC Andy Kotelnicki, who significantly improved PSU’s explosives in 2024, with an extra week to prepare, will scheme up enough big plays after calling a very vanilla game plan through three weeks—maybe even a couple of big Allar runs. With an elite defense, Penn State wins by at least a touchdown and makes a case to be the No. 1 team in the country.

Watch Mogollon Break Down Penn State-Oregon with Pick Six Previews Brett Ciancia

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

Indiana -8 IOWA (Caesars)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: Peacock

If you’ve followed B1G Bets over the past three-plus seasons at SportsGrid, you know how often we’ve backed the Hawkeyes. Probably more than any other team.

This is just a bad, bad matchup for them. This Iowa defense (53rd in defensive success rate) has taken a step back, and it was evident last week at Rutgers when they allowed 28 points and benefited from two missed Rutgers field goals.

The run defense ranks 61st in rushing EPA, while Indiana is third in rushing yards per game (308.75 YPG) and fourth in yards per carry (6.79). Iowa’s secondary is the weakest it has been in years, and it showed as Rutgers threw for 330 yards against them. Indiana receivers are not as big but are just as good, and bring more speed to push the ball down the field. Oh, and Fernando Mendoza is a better quarterback, throwing behind a stronger offensive line than the Hawkeyes have faced.

There’s this perception that the Hawkeyes are giant killers (folks, their win over Ohio State was in 2017!), but that hasn’t been the case of late. Kirk Ferentz is reliable and wins the games he’s supposed to, just like he did against Rutgers last week. He also loses the games he’s supposed to.

Since 2021, against the seven best teams they’ve played, the Hawkeyes lost 23-20 to Penn State (Kinnick), 42-3 to Michigan (neutral), 27-14 vs. Michigan (Kinnick), 54-10 at Ohio State, 31-0 at Penn State, 26-0 to Michigan (neutral), and 35-7 at Ohio State. All but one weren’t even close. Maybe the Hoosiers aren’t quite at the level of those teams, but they do play like it against most opponents. Moreover, those results came with better Iowa teams (ranked in four of those games) with elite defenses.

We don’t need the Hoosiers to win by 44, 39, 31, or even 13, although they might. I would be surprised if No. 11 Indiana doesn’t win this one by double digits.

Over that same stretch, the Hawkeyes are 3-10 against ranked opponents, which includes a “ranked win” over a fugazi IU team in 2021 that opened ranked and finished with two wins. They also have a 6-11 record in the 17 games in which they have been underdogs.

At Indiana, Curt Cignetti has been an ATS god: 12-5, 12-3 as the favorite, 8-2 in Big Ten games, and 3-0 as a road favorite. Another flawed piece of conventional wisdom is to fade a team after a big win. Cignatti’s units are 11-3 ATS after a win since last season, including covers following a 42-14 blowout at UCLA (-3.5) and after a 56-7 beatdown of Nebraska (-6.5). This team doesn’t let down. Ever.

Watch Mogollon Break Down Indiana-Iowa with Pick Six Previews Brett Ciancia