Liberty Flames Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick
Grant White
Host · Writer
The Liberty Flames ran through the competition last year (literally) en route to a perfect regular season and a berth in the Fiesta Bowl. While the Oregon Ducks doused the Flames in the New Year’s Six festivities, it propelled Liberty to heights never before seen. Now, with their core offensive pieces still intact and an entire nation paying attention, it begs the question: what could the Flames possibly do as an encore?
Liberty Flames Preview
2022 Record: 13-1 (8-0); CUSA Finish: 1st
AP Poll: N/A | Coaches Poll: N/A | PFF: N/A | SP+: No. 48
Head Coach: Jamey Chadwell: 13-1 (8-0) | 2nd Season | Overall: 111-58
Co-Offensive Coordinator: Willy Korn (2nd Year), Newland Isaac (2nd Year)
Co-Defensive Coordinator: Skylor Magee (2nd Year), Kyle Krantz (2nd Year)
Liberty Flames Futures Odds (FanDuel)
National Championship Odds: +50000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +440
CUSA Championship Odds: -195
Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 -138 | UNDER 10.5 +112
Liberty Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish
Liberty’s unrelenting offensive attack remains largely intact following last year’s bull run to the Fiesta Bowl. The return of Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley gives fans plenty to get excited about again in 2024. Last season, dual-threat signal-caller Salter threw for 2,876 yards and 32 scores, adding 1,089 yards on the ground with 12 more touchdowns. Those numbers look terrific in a vacuum, but that’s also without considering Salter’s efficiency. The then-sophomore quarterback completed 61.0% of his passes for 9.9 yards per pass attempt while giving up just six interceptions. Those metrics yielded an 83.7 QBR, the ninth-best in the country. Moreover, that’s without considering Cooley’s 1,401 rushing yards or 16 touchdowns. With both players back for their junior and senior years, Liberty’s offensive output could ratchet even higher this season.
Liberty Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish
The Flames lost several integral players, leaving big question marks on both sides of the ball. Top pass-catcher CJ Daniels departed via the transfer portal, signing with the LSU Tigers. While the team landed Elijah Canion and Julian Gray via the transfer portal, neither player has proven their ability to replace Daniels’ production. The losses on defense were even more significant, with standout defenders Tyren Dupree and Brandon Bishop exhausting their eligibility. Treylor Jackson and Eldric Grifin have big shoes to fill and limited experience to draw on to step in without the Flames missing a beat.
Liberty Breakout Player: WR Treon Sibley, Senior
Liberty’s best chance of maintaining the status quo on offense comes from extracting maximum value from Treon Sibley. Thankfully, the senior wide receiver has demonstrated game-changing ability when called upon. Sibley was the second-leading pass-catcher on the Flames last season, hauling in 23 passes for 467 yards. He’s got breakaway speed but also has the frame to handle intermediate routes and contact from defenders. At 20.3 yards per catch, it’s easy to see how Sibley could become the next Flames sensation in 2024.
Liberty X-Factor: STAR Quinton Reese, Senior
A natural consequence of playing with the lead is defending against the pass. The Flames were tested last year, giving up 244.8 passing yards per game, ranking fourth-last in the Conference USA. The departure of Dupree and Bishop exacerbates those concerns, leaving it up to Safety/STAR defender Quinton Reese to step up and fill the gap at both levels. Reese finished the year with the fourth-most tackles on defense, contributing one pass deflection, one forced fumble, and two interceptions. Still, he must amplify that production to keep Liberty’s defense afloat.
Liberty Schedule Analysis
As was the case last year, the Flames have a cakewalk of a schedule in 2024. The CUSA remains an inferior conference, even by Group of 5 standards. Further, Liberty has filled its non-conference quota with underwhelming competition. The reigning CUSA champs open the campaign against FCS foes, the Campbell Fighting Camels. They follow that up with a tilt versus perennial bottom-feeders the New Mexico State Aggies, embarking on their foray into conference play. Their lone test comes against the Appalachian State Mountaineers in Week 5, using a bye week in advance to prepare for the non-conference battle. That could be the only matchup between Liberty and another perfect regular season.
Liberty Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins
As you can infer from the betting price, the smart play is taking the Flames to eclipse 10.5 wins again in 2024. Liberty won’t face a sincere challenge from others within the CUSA, but a road game against the Mountaineers could prevent them from running the table. Factoring that game as a loss still affords bettors wiggle room to cash the over, with hedging opportunities later in the season. But the part nobody wants to talk about is that it still won’t be enough to get Liberty into the College Football Playoff. The Flames are without a playoff-caliber opponent on their schedule, making it impossible to rationalize their inclusion in the 12-team field. Look no further than last year’s dismantling in the Fiesta Bowl as evidence that this program has a long way to go before it can be considered a true contender. Nevertheless, Liberty should easily defend its crown as the top team in the CUSA.
Liberty Preseason Pick
OVER 10.5 (-138 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Liberty Best Bets
Over 10.5 Wins (-138), CUSA Champions (-195)
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