NCAAF · 34 minutes ago

College Football Week 1 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Last week (0-2) was not the start to the season we were hoping for, but that’s what Week 0 is for. Get the kinks out, identify weak points, and fix them heading into the season.

If you’re new to B1GBets, each week I will pick Big Ten games, including ATS picks, totals, and team totals. The bets are broken down by units: Not So B1G Bets (1/2 unit), B1G Bets (1 unit), B1GGER Bets (1.5 units), and B1GGEST Bets (2 units).

B1G BETS 2025 BETTING RECORD

2025 Season: 59-50 (+8 UNITS) | ATS Bets: 30-28 (+3.5 UNITS)
Team Totals: 23-14 (+6 UNITS) | Game Totals: 6-7 (-1.5 UNITS)
Not So B1G Bets: 35-30 (+2.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 19-17 (+2 UNITS)
B1GGER Bets: 4-3 (+1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)

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NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT):

MICHIGAN STATE-Toledo UNDER 48 (@Fanatics)

Friday night lights, anyone? I was tempted to fade Michigan State, a team I believe is headed towards another rough season.

For my money, factoring in that one school is in the MAC and the other in the Big Ten, Toledo made the better head coaching hire in Mike Jacobs, who has a winning resume, albeit at a lower level.

The Rockets will be ready. They won’t beat themselves. I don’t trust Toledo’s offense in this spot. Even a mediocre-to-bad Spartans defense could hold them to below 20 points at home.

When MSU has the ball, expect a slow tempo and a lot of running the football. They lack explosive playmakers at receiver to really light up the scoreboard.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rockets keep it close, but I would be surprised to see either offense take off in Week 1.

Western Michigan UNDER 11.5 (-124 @Caesars)

We’re staying in the Mitten State and backing the Michigan defense against a Western Michigan offense that’s going to be OK in the MAC but simply not up to the challenge of facing a ranked Big Ten foe.

The Broncos are second in the MAC in returning production, and most of that is on offense. Isn’t that a good thing? That’s one way to look at it. Another is: if they were any good, why didn’t bigger schools poach them? That’s the harsh reality.

QB Broc Lowry is back, but he threw for just 1,803 yards with nine TD passes. He’s a runner, and even factoring in his rushing yards, his QBR was only 85th in the country. Against Big Ten teams last season, he threw for 91 yards at MSU and 78 yards at Illinois, as the team scored a combined six points. Jalen Buckley, who rushed for 1,000 yards, was held to 21 yards (2.3 YPC) by the Spartans and 13 yards (2.2 YPC) by the Illini.

Neither of those defenses was as good as the Wolverines are.

Utah transfer, DE John Henry Daley, anchors what is expected to be a deep and stout defensive line. Just as important is that Michigan has active and hard-hitting defensive backs like CB Zeke Berry and S Chris Bracy. It’s too much of a mismatch not to count on the Wolverines to hold WMU to 10 points or fewer.

UCLA -2 CAL (@FanDuel)

I understand if you’re a little leery of taking a short road favorite, but we’re bullish on Bob Chesney succeeding at UCLA, starting in Year 1.

Taking the Curt Cignetti path, Chesney brings a bushel of transfers with him from James Madison. We’re not predicting a CFP appearance, but the Bruins will be much improved, and that continuity is key to immediate success.

Most of UCLA’s transfers are experienced starters, while Cal’s defense features several first-year starters, which favors the Bruins in Week 1. Ranked 10th nationally in returning production (67 percent), Chesney went out and added 154 starts through the portal. Cal, ranked 43rd in returning production (58 percent), only brought in 72 starts via the portal. How’s that for “Calgorithm?”

The same could be said of the head coaches. This is Chesney’s first game as UCLA’s head coach. He’s a proven winner. Tosh Lupoi, a first-year head coach from Oregon, leads the Golden Bears. He was the Ducks DC, but how much of it was really Dan Lanning’s defense?

It’s fair to say the Bruins should have the coaching edge.

I’m not here to say anything bad about Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. We understand all the buzz around JKS. Just don’t underestimate Nico Iamaleava, who is also extremely gifted with a big-time arm and elite open-field running ability.

Last season, he came into a messy situation late in the game. Now, he’s had a full spring leading up to camp with an improved coaching staff and better talent around him. He might go toe-to-toe with JKS.

Wisconsin UNDER 13.5 (-117 @Caesars)

I am down on the Badgers going into the season, especially their offense.

I’m not sold on Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph being the answer at quarterback. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but he’s making a big step up in competition.

Yes, I remember his 78-yard run against Indiana last season. I also remember he was 11-of-22 passing for 96 yards and three INTs, with no touchdowns. Is it unfair to judge him against a championship-caliber defense? Maybe not, but that’s his task in Week 1.

Who’s he throwing to? Their four top pass catchers from 2025 are gone, from an offense that was fifth-worst in passing yards. Their replacements? Second and third-stringers from last season’s team.

Making matters even worse in Week 1 is that the Badgers are likely to be without RT Kevin Heywood and RG Emerson Mandell, two of their five projected starters along the offensive line.

That spells serious trouble against a Fighting Irish defense some believe could be the best in the country.

After scoring a whopping 14 points against Alabama (thanks to a KR TD), Wisconsin failed to score more than 13 points in eight of their final nine games.

Why is this year’s unit any better?

Maybe they will be…eventually. But not against a defense this good, and not this week.

B1G BET (1 UNIT):

MICHIGAN -27.5 Western Michigan (@DraftKings)

With Western Michigan more likely to get shut out than score two touchdowns, we’re also on Michigan laying nearly four touchdowns in Kyle Whittingham’s debut as the head man of the Maize and Blue.

I’m very optimistic about the Wolverines offense going into the season. They return four starters along the offensive line, as well as leading rusher Jordan Marshall (932 yards, 6.2 YPC, 10 TDs), and leading receiver Andrew Marsh, who was fantastic in his final eight games (44 receptions, 621 yards) as a true freshman. To that, they’ve added breakout stars in 5-star freshman RB Savion Hiter and 6’3” WR JJ Buchanan from Utah. Switching from tight end to receiver, Buchanan averaged 16.4 YPC as a true freshman for the Utes.

The biggest addition might be OC Jason Beck, whose offenses in the past two seasons finished second in the country in rushing at New Mexico and then Utah. His units have put up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. That’s a major upgrade.

Then there’s Bryce Underwood, who will benefit the most from the additional talent in the receiver room and a better-run offensive attack. He’s finally getting the coaching he needs. The No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 class remains insanely talented with a cannon arm, elite size, and dynamic running ability. Expect him to make a major leap this season and show why he was so sought after.

This should be a blowout by 35-40 points.

WASHINGTON -23.5 Washington State (@BetMGM)

In the first of two Big Ten games on Sunday, Washington hosts rival Washington State in the Apple Cup.

There are questions to be asked about Jedd Fisch and QB Demond Williams when it comes to playing ranked teams and playing on the road. Those are questions for another day. In 128 attempts against non-ranked teams at home, the QB didn’t throw a single interception.

Williams is a big-time playmaker who shreds average defenses. Something the Cougars are very aware of, as he connected on 16 of 19 passes for 298 yards and four touchdowns against them last season.

Since Fisch arrived in Seattle two years ago, he’s been rebuilding an offensive line that lost all five starters from their national runner-up team. With four starters back and a stud 5-star freshman, this is the best O-line he’s had. They have more than enough receiver talent, and while there are questions about the running backs, I’m not worried. Between the O-line and the threat of Williams using his legs, they should be just fine.

Wazzu’s defense was solid last season but must replace all 17 defenders who saw 200+ snaps.

The reason I’m ready to lay this much in a rivalry game is that, as much as I like Washington’s offense, their defense might have the bigger edge in this Week 1 matchup. I really liked the hiring of DC Ryan Walters last season. They have a nice mix of returning contributors, incoming transfers, players returning from injuries, and freshmen who appear ready to make an immediate impact.

Last season’s WSU team finished 61st in SP+ and failed to cover as a 20.5-point underdog at home. Now we only have to lay three more points and get to play in Huskie Stadium against a Cougars team that is 86th in SP+. I’ll take it.

Washington State is on their fourth coach in six years. They are 109th in returning production and brought in just 48 starts. This one should get ugly.