Wisconsin Badgers 2026 College Football Preview & Predictions

Things have not turned out as expected since Wisconsin poached Luke Fickell from Cincinnati. Lauded as a home-run hire, Fickell has been a huge disappointment, as his teams have regressed every season. After matching Paul Chryst’s final campaign in Year 1 (7-6), the Badgers have gone on to win five and four games over the past two seasons.

Wisconsin Badgers Snapshot

• 2025 Record: 4-8 (2-7) | Big Ten Finish: 14th (tied)
• P. Poll: NR | Coaches Poll: NR | SP+: No. 53
• Head Coach: Luke Fickell (4th Year) | Record: 80-46 | UW Record: 17-21
• Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Grimes (2nd Year)
• Defensive Coordinator: Mike Tressel (4th Year)

Their eight losses in 2026 were the program’s most since 1990! Remember when nine wins (in one season!) wasn’t good enough? Chryst won at least nine games in five of seven seasons, including his second-to-last. Many thought Fickell wouldn’t survive last season, so it’s now or never. 

Wisconsin Futures Odds (DraftKings)

• Regular Season Wins: OVER 6.5 -105 | UNDER 6.5 -115
• Conference Wins: OVER 4.5 +120 | UNDER 4.5 -146
• National Championship Odds: +60000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +3000
• B1G Championship Odds: +13500 | To Reach B1GCG: +3000

The sportsbooks are bullish on Wisconsin making it back to a bowl, with the odds heavily pointing towards a six- or seven-win season. The UNDER 5.5 wins would net you +180, while OVER 7.5 wins is even more unlikely at +230. They are also projected to post their third straight losing season in conference play. Not much more is expected from the Badgers in terms of competing for the Big Ten or making the CFP. They are way behind Tier 2 in the B1G and are the top team in Tier 3, slightly ahead of Nebraska, Illinois, and Minnesota.

Wisconsin Preview: Why You Should Buy

• Sophomore LBs Mason Posa & Cooper Catalano
• Key Transfers: CB Javan Robinson, S Marvin Burks Jr. & CB Bryce West

The back seven is the strength of this roster, especially their linebackers. How can you not be excited about sophomores Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano? A freshman All-American, Posa led the Badgers in tackles despite making only five starts. The future star is a playmaker who blitzed his way to four sacks and had three passes defensed in coverage. Catalano’s 56 stops were two behind Posa, also in five starts as a true freshman. How good is this duo? They helped push Christian Alliegro out the door, and he’s competing for a starting role at Ohio State.

The only full-time starter back on defense is Matthew Jung, and Marvin Burks, a two-year starter at Missouri, joins him. The corners were the team’s weakness last season, so new blood is a good thing. Arizona State transfer Javan Robinson is another two-year starter, including on ASU’s playoff team in 2024. Bryce West, from Ohio State, could be a strong addition as the nickelback, while redshirt freshman Jai’mier Scott (Rivals 4-star) took advantage of spring football and appears ready to contribute.

Wisconsin Preview: Why You Should Sell

• Leading Returning Passer: Danny O’Neil, 635 yards
• Leading Returning Passer: Chris Brooks, 124 yards

The biggest problem in Madison last season was a woeful passing attack that ranked last among all Power 4 teams. They have been snakebitten with injuries at the quarterback position under Fickell. They also haven’t been very talented either. Both things can be true. Incoming QB Colton Joseph rushed for 1,007 yards (6.4 YPC) and 13 TDs for Old Dominion last season, but is he a quality Big Ten-caliber quarterback/passer?

Moreover, who is Joseph throwing to? Their four leading pass catchers are gone, and they weren’t that great. This season, returnees Sr. Chris Brooks (11-124), Sr. Tyrell Henry (5-29), and So. Eugene Hilton Jr. (8-91) are the projected starters. Their top two tight ends also need to be replaced, including Lance Mason, who led them with 398 yards. Expected starter Jacob Harris had 19 receptions for 182 yards at Bowling Green last season and, at 270 pounds, may be a better blocker than receiver. Throw in two new starting tackles, likely PJ Wilkins, a former backup at guard, and Kevin Heywood, who has minimal experience coming off missing all of 2025 with a torn ACL.

Wisconsin Breakout Player: Nicolas Clayton

• 4-Star recruit per 247Sports Composite rankings

A four-star recruit from the Class of 2025, Nicolas Clayton was Wisconsin’s second-rated freshman last season behind Mason Posa. The Gainesville, Florida native saw action in all 12 games a year ago, mostly as a special teamer. In 15 defensive snaps, Clayton made two tackles. More is expected of him this season. A quick EDGE defender with the first step needed to win at the line of scrimmage, he also bulked up to nearly 250 pounds going into Year 2. He’s too athletic to keep off the field and should emerge as one of Wisconsin’s top pass rushers and potentially their leading sacker.

Wisconsin X-Factor: Defensive Line

• 4 Incoming DT Transfers
• 3 Incoming EDGE Transfers

We could have just said the 30-plus transfers Fickell brought in or focused specifically on QB Colton Joseph. Since we already touched upon the passing game, we’ll instead zoom in on their D-line, which could make or break their defense. Returnee Charles Perkins (330 pounds) is joined by sixth-year man Hammond Russell IV (5.5 career sacks at WVU) as the likely starters, with transfers Junior Poyser (5.5 sacks with Buffalo in 2025) and Jacob Anderson (3 sacks with Illinois State in 2025) providing depth.

Their EDGE group possesses greater upside. Sebastian Cheeks (5 career sacks) has a quick first step, and Tyreese Fearbry is their most athletic edge rusher. Will these seniors finally cash in on their promise? Transfer Justus Boone (Florida and Arkansas) appears to be in the lead for a starting position opposite Cheeks. Another name to remember is the aforementioned Nicolas Clayton.

Wisconsin Schedule Analysis

• SP+ SOS Rank: 37
• Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 32

Wisconsin’s schedule isn’t easy but is among the most manageable in the Big Ten, even with their opener against Notre Dame in Green Bay. The Fighting Irish are the only top-10 team on the docket, as the Badgers miss the B13 of Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana, as well as No. 16 Michigan and No. 17 Washington. They do face three ranked teams in USC, with tough trips to Penn State and Iowa.

On the positive side, following ND, they host Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan, which should be wins. In their six other conference games against unranked teams, the Badgers get the B1G’s bottom four and six of the bottom seven, which leaves them with eight very winnable games.

Wisconsin Best Bet, Long Shot, and Prediction: OVER/UNDER 6.5 Wins

• Win Total: UNDER 6.5 (-115 @ DraftKings)
• Best Bet: UNDER 4.5 Conference Wins (-146 @ DraftKings)
• Long Shot: UNDER 5.5 (+180 @ DraftKings)

It feels like most people who are bullish on the Badgers think it’s more about their schedule than the talent, and yes, there’s a path to seven or eight wins, but boy, is it slim. While the schedule is much easier than last season, let’s not forget all of their losses came by double digits, seven by at least two touchdowns. They won’t get blown out as often, but their conference games (five on the road) are all losable. Wisconsin returns just 75 starts, the third fewest in the B1G, and the additions aren’t elite. This is likely a six- or seven-win team that comes up 6-6 more often than 7-5, in my opinion. Even more likely than 6-6 is 4-5 in conference play. If things go bad at quarterback and the offense isn’t much improved, then why not four or five wins at +180?