Penn State Nittany Lions 2026 College Football Preview & Predictions

The 2025 campaign was championship-or-bust for the Penn State Nittany Lions. They chose bust. Instead of building on their appearance in the CFP semifinals, PSU ended the James Franklin era by firing the head coach halfway through the season.

Penn State Nittany Lions Snapshot

• 2025 Record: 7-6 (3-6) | Big Ten Finish: 12th (tied)
• A.P. Poll: No. 18 | Coaches Poll: No.  17 | SP+: No. 17
• Head Coach: Matt Campbell (1st Year) | Record: 107-70 | PSU Record: 0-0
• Offensive Coordinator: Taylor Mouser (1st Year)
• Defensive Coordinator: D’Anton Lynn (1st Year)

Enter Matt Campbell and a slew of transfers. Campbell lifted a downtrodden program—all six of ISU’s coaches from 1979-2015 had losing records—to the top half of the Big 12 with the most wins in program history (72) and the best winning percentage (.567) in nearly 100 years. Now he takes over a program where winning more than 68 percent of your games doesn’t guarantee job security. It’s Year 1, and there are expectations.

Penn State Futures Odds (DraftKings)

• Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 -166 | UNDER 8.5 +130
• Conference Wins: OVER 5.5 -175 | UNDER 5.5 +144
• National Championship Odds: +6500 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES +280 | NO -380
• B1G Championship Odds: +2200 | To Reach B1GCG: +550

A year ago, PSU’s win total was 10.5 (7.5 conference wins), with +220 odds to win the Big Ten (second) and +700 to win the Natty (third). Coming off their disappointing season, followed by a coaching change, expectations in State College aren’t nearly as lofty going into the 2024 season. Reaching nine wins is much more modest and something the program had done in seven of the past nine non-COVID years.

Penn State Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

• Campbell Brought His Best Iowa State Players
• Roster Had 225 Starts Last Season

Coach Campbell didn’t come to State College empty-handed. Out of PSU’s 38 incoming transfers (per On3), 23 are from Iowa State. Among them are projected starters QB Rocco Becht (83 touchdowns accounted for), RB Carson Hansen (All-Big 12 second team), WR Chase Sowell (Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year), WR Brett Eskildsen (17.5 YPC), TE Ben Brahmer (All-Big 12 second team), OG Trevor Buhr, DE Ikenna Ezeogu (7 QB hurries), LB Kooper Ebel (77 tackles), and S Marcus Neal (All-Big 12 third team).

In all, the Nittany Lions’ roster boasts 21 players who started at least half their team’s games a year ago. Most importantly, Becht has started 39 straight games while leading the Cyclones to 11 wins in 2024 and eight in 2025 despite playing through multiple injuries. They are not starting from scratch.

Penn State Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

• Four New Starters on the Offensive Line
• Four New Starters on the Defensive Line

How good Penn State will be in the trenches remains a big question mark in Happy Valley. They return just one starter along the offensive line and none on the defensive side of the ball, with two players drafted from each side of the ball, including first-round pick Vega Ioane (OG). Projected left tackle Malachi Goodman and guard Cooper Cousins are talented but unproven, while transfers OG Trevor Buhr (ISU) and C Brock Riker (Texas State) have starting experience, but are they Big Ten caliber?

Same goes for DE Ikenna Ezeogu (ISU), who had just one sack for the Cyclones last season. The only returning Nittany Lion with two-plus sacks last year is LB Tony Rojas. If sophomore Yvan Kemajou (1.5 career sacks) doesn’t develop quickly, there will be serious questions about the front four’s ability to generate a pass rush. They brought in four defensive tackles in the portal who combined for 18 starts (11 by Keanu Williams at UCLA) and 3.5 sacks last season.

Penn State Breakout Player: CB Daryus Dixson

Several key players from Penn State’s 2025 recruiting class stuck with the program and are expected to step into bigger roles, including Malachi Goodman, Yvan Kemajou, and WR Koby Howard. We’re going with sophomore Daryus Dixson as our breakout player for 2026. The Nittany Lions return only two starters on defense, both cornerbacks, yet Dixon is expected to earn a starting role with high hopes. As a true freshman, the coverman flashed his high upside with 24 tackles and six breakups, including three in the Pinstripe Bowl, his second start.

Penn State X-Factor: Chemistry

• The Blended Family Roster
• Most of the Starts (158) Are From Transfers

PSU is 67th nationally in returning production and last in the Big Ten in returning starts (67). However, they lead the conference in starts brought in via the portal (158). How well and how quickly they come together as a team will dictate the team’s floor and ceiling in 2026.

Outside of a handful of players, most of Penn State’s starters are earning their spot for the first time or changing conferences. Defensively, it’s a new scheme for all of their players, as Campbell hired D’Anton Lynn away from USC. An excellent hire, but remember, ISU’s defenders were recruited to play in a different scheme.

Penn State Schedule Analysis

• SP+ SOS Rank: 59
• Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 53

One can make the case that the real reason to be bullish about the Nittany Lions in 2026 is a schedule that lacks Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana, the top three Big Ten teams going into the season. They also play four of the five worst B1G teams by the odds. Throw in a soft out-of-conference slate (Marshall, Temple, Buffalo), and Penn State may be favored in nine or 10 games. A 5-0 start is likely.

It’s not all cream puffs, as No. 14 USC visits in Happy Valley the week before PSU must travel to No. 16 Michigan at midseason, with a trip to No. 19 Washington in November. Still, this is a schedule—by far the easiest of any B1G program—that a typical Franklin team goes 11-1 with—just sayin’.

Penn State Best Bet, Long Shot, & Prediction: OVER/UNDER 8.5 Wins

• Win Total: OVER 8.5 Regular Season Wins (-166 @ DraftKings)
• Best Bet: OVER 9.5 Regular Season Wins (+140 @ DraftKings)
• Long Shot: Make the CFP (+360 @ DraftKings)

I have no doubt Penn State will be better in 2026; the question is how much better?

The best team on PSU’s schedule is USC, and the Nittany Lions are a short home favorite over the Trojans (-2), and in their toughest game (at Michigan), they’re a six-point underdog. As long as Becht stays healthy, this schedule is set up for nine, if not ten, wins, depending on how risky you want to get. The last time Campbell had a healthy Becht, he led the Cyclones to 10 regular-season wins. Could he do it again? At plus odds, it might be worth a shot.