Louisville Cardinals Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets for 2024

Over the past decade, there were multiple times when former Cardinals quarterback Jeff Brohm was linked to the head coaching position with the Louisville Cardinals. The Brohm family was synonymous with football in that area and Jeff was seen as a future Cardinals head coach despite turning down the position on at least one public occasion. Scott Satterfield led Louisville to a somewhat hollow feeling 8-5 record and a win in the Fenway Bowl before bolting for Cincinnati and the path was finally paved. Brohm was fresh from taking Purdue to a surprising Big Ten West title and felt the time was finally right to “come home." Sometimes, situations like that seem too good to be true and the shiny object you just knew you had to have doesn’t quite go as planned once you actually have it. In the case of Jeff Brohm and the Louisville Cardinals, things went even better in year one than even the most optimistic Cardinal booster likely dreamed of. The Cardinals rode a very favorable schedule and a few close wins to a 7-1 ACC record and a first-ever trip to the ACC Championship Game. Things trailed off at the end of the season as they lost to rival Kentucky, fell to Florida State without Jordan Travis, and then lost to USC without Caleb Williams in the Holiday Bowl, but a ten-win season can’t be scoffed at. They enter 2024 with hopes to build on that momentum.

Louisville Cardinals Preview

2023 Record: 10-4 (7-1) 

ACC Finish: 2nd place (loss to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game)

A.P. Poll: 26 | Coaches Poll: 27 | PFF: Unranked | SP+: 28

Head Coach: Jeff Brohm – 2nd Season at Louisville | Overall: 10-4 at Louisville and 76-48 overall 

Offensive Coordinator: Brian Brohm (2nd season)

Defensive Coordinator: Mark Hagen and Ron English (2nd seasons)

Louisville Cardinals Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +15000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +500 | ACC Championship Odds: +850

Win 10+ Games: +290 | Undefeated Regular Season: +3600 | Regular Season Wins: OVER 8.5 (+132)/UNDER (-162)

Louisville Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

The easiest reason for optimism surrounding the Louisville Cardinals is the man in charge: Jeff Brohm. His recent track record speaks for itself. After a slow start at Purdue, Brohm went 9-4 and 8-5 in his final two seasons in West Lafayette. He then was the runner-up in the ACC in his only season at Louisville. That means his past three seasons have seen regular season win totals of 8, 8 and 10 games. With Brohm leading the program, it is difficult to envision an abysmal season. On the field, the defense was number one in the ACC against the run and number one nationally in the red zone. Ashton Gillotte had 11 sacks in 2023 and returns to lead the defense along with a veteran group of returning players in the secondary. Brohm dove into the transfer portal to try and add to his offensive personnel and if quarterback Tyler Shough can stay healthy, it could be a better unit than it was a season ago.

Louisville Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Louisville has placed a lot of belief in transfer quarterback Tyler Shough. He is talented but there has to be a great deal of caution due to his injury history. After transferring to Texas Tech from Oregon, Shough played in 2021 but broke his collarbone in Week 4. He returned to start the 2022 season as QB1 for the Red Raiders but exited in the first quarter and did not return. He showed flashes of brilliance towards the end of the season and began the 2023 season as the starter in Lubbock. He was injured in Week 4 again and was diagnosed with a broken fibula that ended his Texas Tech career as he transferred to Louisville after the season. Shough is a more talented player than 2023’s quarterback (Jack Plummer), but what happens if he gets hurt? The offensive line was not as strong as a pass-blocking unit, which adds to the concern. The top two running backs from 2023 are both gone and Louisville is counting on Donald Chaney (a downgrade on Jawhar Jordan) and Maurice Turner (a downgrade on Isaac Guerendo) to avoid a dropoff in the running game. 

Breakout Player: Caullin Lacy – WR

Senior wide receiver Caullin Lacy transferred to Louisville from South Alabama after a terrific 2023 season. He had 91 catches for 1316 yards with seven receiving touchdowns and Lacy inherits a role that provided 63 catches and 858 yards for Jamari Thrash. The two have a lot of similarities, and if Tyler Shough stays healthy, it would not be a surprise to see Lacy turn in a 1,000-yard season.

Louisville X-Factor: Tyler Shough – QB

Sometimes, the obvious answer is the correct answer. Louisville needs more from its passing game, and it’ll need a healthy Tyler Shough to do that. If he is injured, the Cardinals will probably turn to Brady Allen or Pierce Clarkson. Neither one of those players has any experience, and the Cardinals would likely become a run-dimensional, run-heavy attack. Anything less than a healthy season from Shough spells trouble.

Louisville Schedule Analysis

The 2024 schedule is nowhere near as easy as what Louisville enjoyed in 2023 but it could be much worse. The Cardinals have matchups with Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to kick off the season before an early bye week. The non-conference schedule is rounded out with tough games at Notre Dame and at Kentucky. In ACC play, Louisville avoids Florida State but has to play at Clemson and versus Miami. In a true sign of the conference expansion times, Louisville plays at Boston College on October 25 and then plays at Stanford less than a month later. 

Louisville Prediction: OVER/UNDER 8.5

The Louisville Cardinals will be underdogs at Notre Dame and at Clemson. They very well could be an underdog against the Miami Hurricanes. That would leave the team with a maximum number of nine victories and put the over very much in doubt. With the health of Tyler Shough being a major concern and the offensive line remaining a question mark after last season, plus a downgrade at running back, expecting Louisville to sweep the rest of the games and avoid any landmines is unwise.

Louisville Preseason Pick

UNDER 8.5 Wins (-162 at FanDuel)

Louisville Best Bets

UNDER 8.5 Wins (-162 at FanDuel)