Predicting the 12-Team College Football Playoff After Week 1

8. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 9. Tennessee Volunteers

Ole Miss remains my eighth seed. After a blowout win over an overmatched small FCS school, I won't be moving the Rebels. Still, the Rebels were incredibly impressive, and the offense was explosive. The Rebels need to make the College Football Playoff after going all-in this offseason, and I have them projected to host the Tennessee Volunteers. I moved Miami from nine to three and dropped Clemson out of the field, and Tennessee impressed me and looked the part against Chattanooga. Nico Iamaleava went 22 for 28 with three touchdowns, and Dylan Sampson ran the ball 12 times for 124 yards. The Vols play North Carolina State on September 7 in Charlotte; we’ll learn much more about them.

Ole Miss 2024 Title Odds: +1500

2. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC Champion)

The Georgia Bulldogs reminded everyone how high their ceiling is as they steamrolled the Clemson Tigers in the second half of their opening week win in Atlanta. UGA outgained Clemson 447 to 188, holding the Tigers to just 3.6 yards per play. Carson Beck was sharp, completing 23 for 33 for 278 yards with two touchdowns as the Bulldogs got standout performances from emerging weapons Arian Smith and Nate Frazier. It was a balanced attack for Georgia, and the schedule is still a real bear, but this was a terrific opening salvo from Kirby Smart’s crew.

UGA 2024 Title Odds: +270

3. Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion)

My initial projection had the Clemson Tigers picked to win the ACC, and that pick needed to change after week one. The Miami Hurricanes move into the third seed with a resounding win at rival Florida. After another offseason of hype, Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes delivered on the field as Cam Ward was terrific and overcame an early mistake to go 26 for 35 for 385 yards with three touchdowns plus 33 yards on the ground. Xavier Restrepo had 112 yards receiving and owned the middle of the field against an overmatched Florida defense. The Hurricanes pestered Graham Mertz all game, and outside of one busted play that gave up a long run, the Miami defense was terrific. The Hurricanes are going to be favored in each of their final 11 games.

Miami 2024 Title Odds: +2200

4. UCF Knights (Big 12 Champion)

Central Florida did nothing to move me off of my initial projection. After Week 1, I still have the Knights projected to win the Big 12 and earn the fourth seed. UCF overwhelmed the New Hampshire Wildcats 57-3 and outgained them 639 to 162. The Knights showed off their dominant rushing attack, hammering UNH with 454 yards and 8.4 yards per carry on 54 rushes. That type of bludgeoning is precisely what I envision from a Gus Malzahn team with KJ Jefferson at quarterback and a terrific stable of running backs. They should get a somewhat sterner test against Sam Houston this coming Saturday.

UCF 2024 Title Odds: +30000 

5. Texas Longhorns vs. 12. Memphis Tigers

The projected five vs. twelve matchup does not change after Week 1. I still have the Texas Longhorns losing the SEC Championship Game and earning the 5-seed and the Memphis Tigers earning the Group of Five’s auto bid. Texas looked outstanding as they overwhelmed the Colorado State Rams with an impressive 52-0 victory. Texas had six different pass-catchers with more than 35 yards receiving, and the defense held a decent Rams offense to just 3.4 yards per play. Memphis beat North Alabama 40-0 and looked the part of the nation’s best G5 team. They now play Troy and then face off with Florida State.

Texas 2024 CFB Title Odds: +700

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. 11. Penn State Nittany Lions

Notre Dame moves up from the seventh seed to the sixth seed after an impressive 23-13 victory at the Texas A&M Aggies. It is fair to point out that Conner Weigman looked awful, and Texas A&M may be largely inept on offense. Still, Notre Dame deserves a ton of credit for winning in an incredibly hostile atmosphere. The running back duo looked like difference-makers, and Riley Leonard settled in and had an excellent second half. His ability to avoid sacks is impressive and will help develop his young offensive line. They would host the 11th-seed: Penn State. The Nittany Lions won in Morgantown 34-12, and there was a lot to be excited about. The new offense showed off as Drew Allar looked good, and the Nittany Lions mixed in some two-quarterback sets with Beau Pribula on the field. Nick Singleton had 13 carries for 114 yards, and receiver Harrison Wallace might help the Nittany Lions' breakthrough if he can keep being a legit WR1. This game would be a fun one in South Bend in December.

Notre Dame 2024 Title Odds: +1700

7. Oregon Ducks vs. 10. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Oregon Ducks were without a few key pieces and struggled to put away the Idaho Vandals, winning only 24-14. That is a concerningly close contest, and I dropped Oregon to the seventh seed, but I won’t overreact to a week one win, even if it wasn’t encouraging. We should learn more about them this Saturday as they play Boise State. They would play the tenth seed, the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama sat on Western Kentucky with a 63-0 victory. Ryan Williams had two catches for 139 yards, scoring touchdowns on his only two touches. Alabama didn’t need to show much of anything, and a pregame injury to offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor is a real concern moving forward.

8. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 9. Tennessee Volunteers

Ole Miss remains my eighth seed. After a blowout win over an overmatched small FCS school, I won't be moving the Rebels. Still, the Rebels were incredibly impressive, and the offense was explosive. The Rebels need to make the College Football Playoff after going all-in this offseason, and I have them projected to host the Tennessee Volunteers. I moved Miami from nine to three and dropped Clemson out of the field, and Tennessee impressed me and looked the part against Chattanooga. Nico Iamaleava went 22 for 28 with three touchdowns, and Dylan Sampson ran the ball 12 times for 124 yards. The Vols play North Carolina State on September 7 in Charlotte; we’ll learn much more about them.

Ole Miss 2024 Title Odds: +1500