2025 Fantasy Football: Prospects for the Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs: Betting on a Fantasy Bounce-Back in 2025

Patrick Mahomes: Bounce-Back or New Normal?

Mahomes’ 2024 season was, by his lofty standards, a disappointment—3,900 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, numbers that left him outside the top-15 fantasy quarterbacks. The question entering 2025 is whether that was an anomaly or the start of a downward trend. Mahomes did look sharper in the final third of the season, suggesting he may be primed for a rebound. Still, the receiving corps remains unsettled, and his fantasy draft ranking reflects the uncertainty: often QB6, just behind the tier of Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles, Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders, Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals. For bettors, Mahomes’ season-long overs on yards (likely set around 4,200.5) or touchdowns (33.5) are sharp lines to evaluate. The buy-low case is compelling if you believe last year was his floor.

Rashee Rice Suspension Cloud

Rice flashed true WR1 upside in 2024, but his looming suspension complicates the fantasy outlook. With the NFL pushing for eight games and Rice’s camp lobbying for fewer, the timeline could bleed into the heart of the fantasy playoffs. That risk makes Rice a volatile draft pick: high ceiling, but a dangerous stash if you need him in December. Bettors should be wary of his season-long props, as an extended suspension would sink any overs on receptions or yardage. The sharper angle may be to look for rookie Xavier Worthy or depth pieces like Marquise Hollywood Brown to hit overs early in the season.

Travis Kelce: One More Run?

Kelce returns for 2025, but at 36 years old, the margin for error is slim. Kelce himself admitted that off-field commitments, including acting and podcasting, cut into his preparation last season. While he remains Mahomes’ most trusted target, fantasy managers must accept a lower ceiling than in his peak years. Kelce is still a TE1, but no longer a league-winning anchor. From a betting perspective, Kelce unders on touchdowns (likely set at 7.5) could be sharp given age, mileage, and defensive attention.

Supporting Cast: Depth or Distraction?

Worthy provides much-needed speed, but relying on a rookie for consistent production is risky. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is already banged up and has struggled to stay on the field. This is why Mahomes may once again be tasked with elevating a supporting cast that lacks a true alpha receiver. Fantasy managers investing in Mahomes are betting on his talent overcoming his weaponry. Bettors targeting Chiefs team totals (10.5 wins, AFC West futures) should recognize that the offense might look more methodical than explosive.

Betting Takeaway

The Chiefs enter 2025 as a team that feels simultaneously reliable and risky. Mahomes remains a fantasy QB1, but not the automatic overall QB1 he once was. Rice’s suspension risk and Kelce’s age cloud the pass-catching corps, leaving Worthy as the wild card. From a betting perspective, the sharpest plays may be:

• Mahomes bounce-back overs on passing yards/touchdowns if you believe in regression to his mean.

• Rice unders on receptions/yardage due to suspension risk.

• Kelce unders on touchdowns given age and workload.

• A cautious approach to Chiefs win-total overs, as this offense may grind more than explode.

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.