Navigating Fantasy Football: Running Back Insights

The Year of “Unsexy RB2s”: Welcome to the New Fantasy Normal

The 2025 fantasy running back landscape is thin — and that’s being generous. The upper crust still has bell cows worth early-round investment, but once you get past the RB12 mark, it’s a slippery slope into fragile committee backs, injury-prone veterans, and touchdown-dependent role players. If you’re using a Zero RB strategy, brace yourself — your RB1 may not even be on most teams’ top 24.

Take Aaron Jones of the Minneosta Vikings as a prime example. He’s a name with past pedigree, but now fits best as a fantasy RB4/RB5. He’s injury-prone (missed games in five straight seasons), and his realistic workload expectation is 12.5 games max. On a pass-heavy Minnesota offense with J.J. McCarthy and Jordan Addison (once unsuspended), Jones won’t face stacked boxes, but he also won’t command 20+ touches per game.

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Tier 2 & 3: Volume Gaps, Role Questions, and Risk Management

This year’s “safe floor” backs offer minimal upside, and the volatile upside picks are surrounded by question marks:

• Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans): He’s projected to lead a run-heavy Titans scheme built to ease rookie QB Cam Ward into the NFL. The volume will be there, but the ceiling isn’t massive. Think RB16-20 with occasional spikes.

• Isaiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs): A touchdown-dependent option in a Chiefs offense that’s shifted from high-flying to methodical. Pacheco’s lack of receiving work caps his fantasy appeal, and even in a Patrick Mahomes-led drives, the red zone work often tilts toward the pass.

• Quinshon Judkins (Cleveland Browns): Highly touted, but already hands-off for smart drafters. Too much uncertainty with touches, game script, and usage near the goal line.

• Brian Robinson (WSH): A cautionary tale. Strong out of the gate in 2024, but vanished down the stretch, costing managers when it mattered most. Washington’s offense is improving but still lacks a clear bell-cow back.

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Betting the RB Market: Find Unders, Watch for Workload Props

The RB betting market is ripe for contrarian plays this season — especially unders on rushing yards and injury-based unders on season-long totals. A few standouts:

• Aaron Jones – Games Played (O/U 12.5): Take the under. He hasn’t played 14+ games since 2021.

• Pacheco – Rushing Yards (O/U 850.5): Lean under. Kansas City’s evolving offense and missed games in 2024 hint at lower-than-expected totals.

• Pollard – Rushing Attempts (O/U 210.5): Take the over. Tennessee’s game script will be run-heavy, especially early while easing in Cam Ward.

• Brian Robinson – Touchdowns (O/U 5.5): Hard pass. Even if he’s the goal-line option, Washington’s offensive design doesn’t support consistent red zone success.

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Kansas City: A Cautionary Tale in 2025 Fantasy

There was a time when “Just get a piece of the Chiefs’ offense” was an auto-win fantasy strategy. Not anymore.

Yes, Patrick Mahomes is still elite in real football terms. But fantasy? He’s not a top-5 QB anymore. He lacks the dual-threat upside of Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, and his offense has become more efficiency-driven than explosive. The Chiefs are no longer scoring 35+ weekly — they’re winning games 24-20.

Pacheco’s RB usage, Travis Kelce’s decline, and the uncertainty around Rashee Rice’s availability have made Kansas City a fantasy landmine. The “elite offense” logic doesn’t hold — especially not in season-long formats where opportunity and volume matter more than team reputation.

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Draft Strategy: Prioritize Elite, Wait Long, or Go Hero RB

Given the shallow pool of reliable RB2s, here’s how to approach your draft:

• Secure a top-12 RB if possible — a bell-cow is still gold

• Skip the middle tier unless value falls (Rounds 5–7 RBs are mostly interchangeable)

• Embrace depth in later rounds: stash handcuffs, rookies, and committee backs like Kaleb Johnson (Pittsburgh Steelers) with upside

• Don’t overrate team context: High-powered passing attacks don’t always yield productive fantasy backs anymore

If you wait too long and end up with the Pacheco–Jones–Robinson tier, draft multiple and be ready to cycle the waiver wire.

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Final Take: Depth is Illusion, Volume is King

The 2025 running back landscape isn’t pretty — but it’s winnable. Know your tiers, trust volume over name value, and don’t fall into the trap of overestimating the strength of legacy offenses like Kansas City. If you’re betting, attack injury and usage props, not efficiency.

Draft sharp. Bet responsibly. Fade the fluff.

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.