NFL Divisional Round: Texans vs Patriots Best Bets & Predictions
Grant White
Host · Writer
A spot in the AFC Championship Game is on the line when the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon. The Texans’ defense dismantled the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, but they face a much stiffer challenge this weekend. New England operates efficiently on both sides of the football and will be insulated by the raucous crowd at Gillette Stadium.
We’re heading into this Divisional Round matchup with two of our favorite NFL plays in tow!
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Where to Watch Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
- Stadium: Gillette Stadium
- Location: Foxborough, MA
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Time: Sunday 3:00 p.m. ET
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Betting Odds
- Spread: HOU +3 (-105) | NE -3 (-115)
- Total: Over 40.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
- Moneyline: HOU +148 | NE -176
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Kalshi Odds
- Chance: HOU 40% | NE 60%
- Spread: NE -3.5 Yes 47¢ | No 54¢
- Total: Over 41.5 Yes 47¢ | No 54¢
In case you haven’t noticed, Houston’s march to the Divisional Round was made possible by its league-leading defense. While the defense is getting all the credit, we can’t help but think the offense has a little more gas in the tank. Turnovers limited the Texans’ success in Pittsburgh, but we expect C.J. Stroud to get over the yips before kick-off versus the Pats.
Stroud was out of his element early versus the Steelers. A pair of fumbles and an interception helped Pittsburgh stay in the contest much longer than it deserved. Still, by the end of the contest, the Texans’ quarterback had found a better rhythm. He completed 21 of 32 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown. Most impressively, the bulk of that production came after Nico Collins was forced out of the contest with a concussion. Armed with six other pass-catchers who have gone north of 200 receiving yards, we predict Stroud will pick up where he left off versus the Steelers.
Houston’s improved efficiency will go a long way to sending this one over the total, but the Pats don’t lack offensive pedigree either. Since TreVeyon Henderson emerged as a top rushing threat, New England’s offense has reached an entirely new stratosphere. Over their last nine games, the Patriots are averaging a monstrous 408.2 total yards per game. Moreover, they’ve eclipsed 440 yards in three of their previous four. As expected, that correlates with a sharp increase in scoring. New England is up to 29.9 points per game across the nine-game sample, surpassing 31 points in four of its past six.
Defense has been a strength for both teams, but we expect the offenses to shine brightest in the Divisional Round. The Texans should see a marked increase in scoring, a strength the Pats have flaunted over the second half of the campaign. The betting market is underestimating the total, but we see immense value in backing this one to go over. Don’t shy away from the exotic market to maximize return.
Best Bet: Over 40.5 -115
As we saw on Monday Night Football, the Texans’ vaunted pass rush takes no prisoners. Lost in the shuffle, this unit still struggles to contain opposing running backs at times. Pittsburgh didn’t have the ground game to expose that flaw, but the Patriots can trot out Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson to keep Houston back-pedalling. Stevenson shone in the Wild Card Round, and we think it’s Henderson’s turn to do some damage.
Last game notwithstanding, Henderson has been nothing short of sensational in his rookie campaign. The Ohio State product earned a bigger piece of the pie when Stevenson went down with an injury at the end of October, and hasn’t relinquished those responsibilities. Henderson has netted 911 yards on 180 rushing attempts, yielding a robust 5.1 yards per carry. Most notably, he’s flashed his breakaway potential, recording two 60+ jaunts earlier in the campaign.
We’ve seen the Texans fall victim to similar rushing attacks in previous weeks. Back in Week 16, Ashton Jeanty went off for a career-best 124 rushing yards, with 51 of those coming on his game-long run. Similarly, the Bills, Chiefs, and Seahawks have exposed the Texans’ defensive weakness, en route to above-average rushing performances.
Running the ball has been a priority for the Pats, and we don’t expect them to stray from that strategy in the Divisional Round. Henderson is a natural progression candidate to improve on his 27 yards and 3.0 yards per carry from last weekend. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him burn past this, but we’re backing him to record at least 50 rushing yards versus the Texans.
Best Bet: TreVeyon Henderson to Record 50+ Rushing Yards +205
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NFL Divisional Round: Texans vs Patriots Best Bets & Predictions
- Over 41.5 -115
- TreVeyon Henderson to Record 50+ Rushing Yards +205
Sunday’s schedule kicks off with what should be a high-scoring affair. We’re planting the SportsGrid flag on the over, expecting TreVeyon Henderson to be an integral part of the Patriots’ attack.
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