NFL Thanksgiving Football Best Bets: Chiefs vs Cowboys
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. Arguably, there is no better November tradition than gridiron football on Thanksgiving.
Where to Watch Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Stadium: AT&T Stadium
- Location: Arlington, TX
- Where to Watch: CBS
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: KC -3 (-115) | Total: 52.5
- Moneyline: KC -180 | DAL +152
It just wouldn’t be a proper Turkey Day without the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) in action. This year, Dallas is hosting the defending AFC-champion Kansas City Chiefs (6-5), which will bring a star-studded crowd to Jerry World.
Both squads here have displayed mixed results after a dozen weeks. If the current campaign concluded at this juncture, neither the Chiefs nor the Cowboys would be a part of the 2025-26 postseason. So, who has the edge this Thursday afternoon?
Of scoring, Dallas ranks fourth (29.1 PPG) in the NFL while KC lands ninth overall (25.2 PPG). However, the Chiefs’ defense is much superior when compared to the Cowboys’ D. Kansas City is allowing only 18.3 PPG. Much of that can be attributed to its blanketing secondary; the Chiefs have kept opponents to just 195.4 YPG through the air.
I like Kansas City to cover three points in this spot. SportsGrid’s analytics concurs, yielding a 64% chance to win for the Chiefs. From there, the model views Kansas City ATS as a three-star play. Keep in mind: the line opened at Chiefs -4.5. With a much more favorable listing at this time, I will lay the points on a desperate KC team.
Best Bet: Chiefs -3 (-115)
52.5 combined points for Chiefs-Cowboys (per FanDuel Sportsbook) is one of the largest totals that we’ve seen this year. Incidentally, I don’t see this bid reaching that lofty mark, as the Chiefs have gone 8-3 (72.7%) for under bettors in 2025. That’s tied for the best under clip in the market right now.
Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott are two of the best quarterbacks in the game, no doubt. However, both offenses will be operating on a short week. We may not see their sharpest execution this Thursday.
The ‘Boys employ a hyper-talented receiving corps powered by CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. However, the Chiefs’ defensive backfield is exactly the sort of group that can slow down Dallas’ dynamic duo. I don’t like this matchup for Lamb in particular, as he is currently dealing with a nasty case of “the drops."
Best Bet: Under 52.5 (-110)
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily NFL Game Picks and NFL Prop Picks.
NFL Thanksgiving Best Bets: Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Chiefs -3 (-115)
- Chiefs-Cowboys Under 52.5 (-110)
Thanksgiving 2025 brings numerous markets and opportunities to set a profitable tone. Best of luck!
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