NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football | Falcons vs Buccaneers Most Bet Player Props & Analysis

Thursday Night Football brings another NFC South rematch into focus as the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet, with both offenses leaning on evolving usage patterns and shifting personnel. With injuries affecting key pass-catchers and backfield roles still taking shape, several player props have drawn early public attention at BetMGM.

The matchup features contrasting defensive profiles — Tampa Bay’s struggles against running backs in the passing game and Atlanta’s stinginess against big pass plays — creating distinct angles bettors are responding to ahead of kickoff.

Here’s a breakdown of BetMGM’s most bet props leading into tonight’s divisional matchup.

Where to Watch Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: TB -4.5 (-115) | Total: 44.5
Moneyline: ATL +205 | TB -250

ATL vs TB Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

1. ATL Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

This has emerged as the most popular prop of tonight’s game, driven by Bijan Robinson’s sustained involvement in Atlanta’s offense. He enters the matchup with 56 receptions on 70 targets for 602 yards, averaging 10.2 yards per catch and 37.9 receiving yards per game — second among all NFL running backs. Robinson has gone over this mark in eight of 13 games, narrowly missing with 37 yards in late November against the New Orleans Saints. Robinson opened the season with a six-catch, 100-yard performance on seven targets vs. Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers rank 27th against the pass (237.8 YPG) and have allowed the most receiving yards to running backs (53.9 per game), a trend that aligns with how bettors are viewing this market.

2. TB Baker Mayfield Over 19.5 Rushing Yards

Public action has centered on Baker Mayfield’s mobility, which has been a consistent part of Tampa Bay’s offense this season. Mayfield has 285 rushing yards, averaging 6.6 per carry and 21.9 yards per game, clearing this number in seven of 13 contests. He rushed for 39 yards on five attempts in Week 1 against Atlanta — a game where the Falcons allowed only 69 total rushing yards overall. Atlanta enters tonight ranked 24th against the run (131 rush YPG) and has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks at 23.5 per game, providing statistical context that aligns with the prop’s popularity.

3. ATL Kyle Pitts Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Kyle Pitts’ receiving prop has seen heavy interest due to both recent performance and expected opportunity. He has 62 receptions for 631 yards this season, averaging 48.6 per game, and while he has gone over this number in four of 13 games, he has recorded 59 yards twice — including against Tampa Bay in Week 1, when he caught seven of eight targets, while missing this number by a yard. With No. 1 wideout Drake London set to miss his fourth straight game, Kirk Cousins may again lean on Pitts, who has 13 catches for 172 yards over his past two outings. Pitts carries a questionable tag into this game and was limited in all three Atlanta practices this week due to a knee issue, but is trending toward playing. Tampa Bay ranks 26th against the pass (237.8 YPG), though they sit 14th versus tight ends (48.9 YPG). In the opening matchup, the Bucs allowed 298 total passing yards when Michael Penix Jr. led Atlanta’s offense.

4. TB Emeka Egbuka Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Another prop drawing a notable ticket count is Emeka Egbuka’s receiving total. The rookie has 54 receptions for 806 yards, averaging 62 yards per game and 14.9 per catch. He has exceeded this yardage in six of 13 games, though he has missed it in four straight entering tonight. In Week 1 against Atlanta, he posted 67 yards and two touchdowns on four receptions. The Falcons rank ninth in passing defense (191.5 YPG) and 17th in receiving yards allowed to wideouts (142.5 per game). Atlanta surrendered 167 passing yards to Tampa Bay in their first meeting, providing the basis for bettors’ interest despite Egbuka’s recent dip in production.

5. TB Jalen McMillan Under 1.5 Receptions

A market tied closely to uncertainty around Tampa Bay’s receiving rotation. Second-year wideout Jalen McMillan is set to make his 2025 debut after recovering from a serious preseason neck injury suffered against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As a rookie, he averaged 2.8 catches per game, and in 2023 at Washington, he recorded 45 receptions across 11 games for the Huskies. The 24-year-old former third-round pick had four catches on seven targets against Atlanta in his only meeting with the Falcons last season. Tampa’s NFC South rival ranks ninth, allowing 14.3 completions per game, and 16th, allowing 11.2 receptions to WRs. Atlanta allowed 17 completions in its Week 1 loss to the Bucs. Tampa Bay also activated No. 1 WR Mike Evans from IR. With both receivers limited in practice this week, bettors appear to anticipate a potentially restricted snap count for McMillan in what could all of a sudden become a very crowded receivers’ room in Florida.

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TNF Falcons vs Buccaneers Most Bet Props

1. Bijan Robinson (ATL) Over 38.5 Receiving yards
2. Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 19.5 Rushing yards
3. Kyle Pitts (ATL) Over 59.5 Receiving yards
4. Emeka Egbuka (TB) Over 44.5 Receiving yards
5. Jalen McMillan (TB) Under 1.5 Receptions made

Tackle the Odds with SportsGrid’s Expert NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Picks.

Thursday Night Football Props Market Closing Bell

Bettors have zeroed in on usage trends and matchup-specific statistical edges ahead of tonight’s NFC South showdown. With both teams navigating injuries and shifting offensive roles, the prop market reflects measured public interest in receiving production for Atlanta’s key weapons, quarterback mobility for Tampa Bay, and uncertainty surrounding the Buccaneers’ returning pass catchers. As the Falcons and Bucs meet for the second time this season, the public prop board highlights where action has consolidated leading into kickoff.

All BetMGM data is based on tickets and straight bets