NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs Dolphins Betting Trends

The NFL’s Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup features two AFC teams desperate to regain momentum as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Miami Dolphins. With Lamar Jackson returning from a three-game absence, Baltimore looks to build on last week’s win and reignite its playoff hopes, while Miami aims to shake off offensive inconsistency and defend home turf. BetMGM’s latest odds show heavy public backing on the Ravens, setting the stage for a high-stakes, prime-time showdown in South Florida.

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BetMGM Betting Splits & Line Movement

Baltimore opened as 7.5-point favorites, and the line has held firm at Ravens -7.5, showing steady market confidence in Jackson’s return under center.

• Spread: 73% of bets and 86% of handle on Ravens -7.5
• Total: Opened at 50.5, up to 51.5, with 61% of bets and 92% of handle on the Over
• Moneyline: Ravens -450 | Dolphins +350 — Public favors Baltimore, but 42% of handle backing Miami signals some sharp contrarian play

This marks a crucial spot for Baltimore, which just snapped a four-game losing streak. The handle leaning heavily toward the Ravens reflects optimism that Jackson’s return can stabilize a struggling offense.

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Lamar Jackson’s Return & Offensive Outlook

After missing three games with a hamstring injury, Jackson returns to lead a Baltimore offense ranked 13th in scoring (24.9 PPG) and eighth in rushing (133.4 YPG). Despite recent struggles, Jackson’s efficiency (10 TD, 1 INT) has been the lone bright spot for a team that’s lacked explosiveness through the air.

Top offensive performers:

• QB Lamar Jackson: 869 yards, 10 TDs, 1 INT
• RB Derrick Henry: 510 yards, 6 TDs
• WR Zay Flowers: 486 yards, 1 TD

Jackson’s mobility should help against a Miami defense that ranks 28th against the run and 30th in points allowed (26.9 PPG). Expect Baltimore to emphasize ball control and time of possession — areas where they’ve struggled (27th in the league).

Dolphins’ Struggles & Betting Context

The Dolphins (2-6) enter desperate for momentum after losing three of their last four. Tua Tagovailoa leads the offense with 1,518 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, but turnovers (10 INTs) and a banged-up offensive line have stalled drives.

• QB Tua Tagovailoa: 1,518 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs
• RB De’Von Achane: 539 rushing yards, 3 TDs
• WR Jaylen Waddle: 504 yards, 4 TDs

Miami ranks just 21st in scoring (21.8 PPG) and 28th in total offense (299.9 YPG), with its once-potent passing attack struggling against tougher defenses. Facing a Ravens defense that’s been vulnerable (30th in points allowed), this matchup could turn into a shootout if Tagovailoa limits mistakes.

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Recent Form & Betting Trends

• Ravens: 1-4 in last five, but coming off a 30-16 win over the Chicago Bears
• Dolphins: 2-3 in last five, including a strong 34-10 bounce-back win over the Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore’s 2-5 record doesn’t fully capture its potential, especially with Lamar back. The Over 51.5 gaining 92% of the handle suggests bettors anticipate both offenses waking up in prime time.

Ravens vs Dolphins Key Statistical Matchups

• Rushing Edge: Ravens (eighth) vs. Dolphins (23rd)
• Passing Defense: Dolphins (11th) hold advantage over Ravens (28th)
• Sacks: Miami (15) is more consistent than Baltimore (nine)
• Forcing Turnovers: Both near the bottom of the league — Ravens (28th in INTs), Dolphins (30th)

Both defenses have struggled to finish games, making red-zone execution the difference-maker. Baltimore’s ability to dominate time of possession could tilt the balance late.

TNF Final Whistle

The betting market expects a bounce-back narrative for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who control over 85% of the spread handle at BetMGM. Miami’s big-play offense remains dangerous, but until they solve their turnover issues, bettors are siding with the healthier, better-coached team.

Expect Baltimore -7.5 and Over 51.5 to remain popular plays as Thursday night kickoff approaches — with sharp bettors eyeing a live opportunity if Miami strikes early.

All BetMGM data is based on straight bets.