NFL Wild Card Predictions | Sunday Three-Game Parlay

We’ve only got so much football left this season, and we will make the rest of the time count. Look at our three-leg Sunday Wild Card parlay, featuring picks from all three contests.

NFL Wild Card Sunday Parlay: Broncos +8.5, Packers vs Eagles Under 45.5, Bucky Irving 100+ Rushing Yards (+764)

Broncos vs Bills Matchup Page

Spread: Broncos +8.5 (-108) | Bills -8.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Broncos +350 | Bills -460
Total: OVER 47.5 (-110) | UNDER 47.5 (-110)

The Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills have been solid against the spread bets this season, covering the spread in 11 of 17 contests. While Buffalo has been installed as chalky -8.5 favorites, our analysis supports there’s an edge in backing the Broncos in this spot. 

Most prominently, the Bills have struggled to cover the number over the season’s final month. Buffalo has been 2-3 ATS since Week 14, an underwhelming record in crunch time. However, the more concerning factor is their plummeting pass defense. Over that same stretch, opponents are averaging 293.6 passing yards per game. Those performances have dropped the Bills’ season-long average to 226.1, the ninth-worst in the NFL.

That decline coincides with the Broncos’ improved aerial assault. Led by Bo Nix, Denver is up to 257.3 passing yards per game over their last three. Moreover, the Broncos’ rookie quarterback has eclipsed 263 passing yards in five of his past seven appearances. 

This spread is a steep hill for the Bills to climb. It might come down to garbage time, but the Broncos should be able to stay within reach in Buffalo.

Leg 1: Broncos +8.5 -108

Packers vs Eagles Matchup Page

Spread: Packers +4.5 (-105) | Eagles -4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Packers +198 | Eagles -240
Total: OVER 45.5 (-115) | UNDER 45.5 (-105)

The defenses will be at the forefront of Sunday’s battle between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. Both teams are dealing with injuries to their starting quarterbacks, negatively impacting the offensive outlook in this Wild Card Round showdown.

More importantly, the Eagles and Packers prioritize strong defensive play. The Eagles operated the top-ranked total and second-ranked scoring defense. Green Bay’s systems are built on an equally impressive scheme, with the Packers checking in at fifth and sixth spots, respectively. 

Not surprisingly, that play correlates with under trends. Philadelphia has stayed beneath the total in 10 of 17 this season, including four of six. While the Packers are just 8-8-1 to the under on the season, they averaged 43.8 points per game over their previous four contests. 

The total for this NFC tilt is currently listed at 45.5. Still, we think that’s a few points too high. We’re taking a stance on this game, staying beneath the total. More reckless bettors could try and include an exact score prop, such as 24-20 Eagles, as an absurd value play.

Leg 2: Under 45.5 -115

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Commanders vs Buccaneers Matchup Page

Spread: Commanders +3 (-115) | Buccaneers -3 (-105)
Moneyline: Commanders +138 | Buccaneers -166
Total: OVER 50.5 (-105) | UNDER 50.5 (-115)

Opponents have run roughshod over the Washington Commanders this season. The NFC East runner-ups allowed an average of 137.5 rushing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL. Expect Bucky Irving to be a focal point on offense this weekend; betting the rookie to record 100+ rushing yards at home. 

Irving has been on another level to end the campaign. The Oregon Ducks alum has crossed the century mark in three of his past six, averaging 90.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry over that stretch. Washington is unequipped to knock Irving off his stride, giving up 4.8 yards per game on the season. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back has a more modest rushing yard prop heading into this clash. However, we’re taking a more exotic approach with our parlay pick. In Sunday’s finale, we’re backing Irving to record 100+ rushing yards against the Commanders.

Leg 3: Bucky Irving 100+ Rushing Yards +130

Parlaying all three picks could yield bettors a noteworthy +764. We’re betting the Broncos keep things close against the Bills, the Eagles and Packers play to a low-scoring game, and Bucky Irving emerges as the x-factor in the Bucs matchup against the Commanders.

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