Ranking All 7 AFC Playoff Teams by Their Title Chances Right Now
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
Wild Card Weekend is when the AFC hierarchy is actually tested. Seeds matter, matchups matter more, and a few of these teams are far more dangerous than their number suggests.
7) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7 | No. 4 Seed)
AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +3500 –> This Week’s Odds: +1700
“Wide right" are the Pittsburgh Steelers’ new favorite two words. Aaron Rodgers and company pulled through thanks to a Tyler Loop missed 45-yard field goal on Sunday. The last-second gaffe put Pittsburgh into the playoffs and the Ravens on the golf course. While the Steelers stay at home as AFC North champions, the task to avoid joining Baltimore on the 16th hole doesn’t get any easier with the Texans coming to town.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs Houston Texans
Where to Watch Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium: Acrisure Stadium
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch: ESPN. ABC
Time: Monday (January 12), 8:15 p.m. ET
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
Spread: HOU -3.5 (-106) | PIT +3.5 (-114)
Total: Over 39.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
Moneyline: HOU -190 | PIT +160
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Kalshi Odds
Chance: HOU 61% | PIT 39%
Spread: HOU -3.5 Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)
Total: Over 39.5 Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)
6) Los Angeles Chargers (11-6 | No. 7 Seed)
AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +1000 –> This Week’s Odds: +1200
The Los Angeles Chargers should be well rested after head coach Jim Harbaugh chose to rest Justin Herbert and multiple starters in last week’s regular-season finale. Still, the Bolts won’t have it easy going from the West Coast to chilly Foxborough in the opening round. Rain is in Sunday’s forecast, and temperatures are expected to be around 23 degrees at kickoff.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: at New England Patriots
Where to Watch Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Time: Sunday (January 11), 8:00 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Betting Odds
Spread: LAC +3.5 (-110) | NE -3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 46.5 (-104) | Under (-118)
Moneyline: LAC +164 | NE -195
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Kalshi Odds
Chance: LAC 36% | NE 64%
Spread: NE -3.5 Yes (51¢) | No (50¢)
Total: Over 45.5 Yes (53¢) | No (48¢)
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5) Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4 | No. 3 Seed)
AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +550 –> This Week’s Odds: +550
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ odds were stagnant after thumping the Titans last week as double-digit favorites. As the No. 3 seed, it’s Trevor Lawrence‘s time to build on a career year and make the leap into playoff success. Jacksonville comes in hot, winners of eight straight with a 7-2 mark at home.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs. Buffalo Bills
Where to Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium: EverBank Stadium
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: Sunday (January 11), 1:00 p.m. ET
Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds
Spread: BUF -1.5 (-104) | JAX -1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: BUF -112 | JAX -104
Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Kalshi Odds
Chance: BUF 351% | JAX 49%
Spread: BUF -2.5 Yes (46¢) | No (55¢)
Total: Over 51.5 Yes (51¢) | No (50¢)
4) Buffalo Bills (12-5 | No. 6 Seed)
AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +500 –> This Week’s Odds: +500
Josh Allen (foot) practiced on Wednesday and should be fully rested for the Buffalo Bills this weekend. Allen took just one snap in last week’s beatdown of the New York Jets to extend his consecutive starts streak. While I think the one-snap move is a little on the bush-league side, last year’s regular-season MVP is the most dangerous QB in these AFC playoffs.
The Bills have had some stinkers on the road this year, with losses in Atlanta and Miami, but changed that trend down the stretch. Buffalo picked up crucial wins at Pittsburgh, New England, and Cleveland to end the campaign on a three-game streak away from High Mark Stadium. Jacksonville isn’t really known for having a huge home presence, and New Yorkers love Florida in the winter, so this one should be a doozy.
3) Houston Texans (12-5 | No. 5 Seed)
AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +550 –> This Week’s Odds: +480
With Wild Card Weekend here, the Houston Texans look like the kind of AFC team nobody wants to draw. They head to Pittsburgh as around a field goal favorite, riding the league’s top defense and a nine-game winning streak that’s quietly reshaped the conference pecking order. Last week’s 38–30 win over the Colts was far less competitive than the final score suggests, with CJ Stroud rested for the second half. This is a Texans team built to travel — balanced on offense, relentless on defense, and comfortable winning without needing Stroud to carry the entire load. That combination is exactly why Houston profiles as the most dangerous wild card in the AFC heading into the weekend.
2) New England Patriots (14-3 | No. 2 Seed)
AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +450 –> This Week’s Odds: +420
The New England Patriots enter Wild Card Weekend sitting as the AFC’s No. 2 seed, a spot that guarantees home-field advantage until at least the AFC Championship Game if they keep advancing. The big picture is how fast this team has flipped its trajectory. No Patriots player has accelerated a turnaround like this since Tom Brady, with Drake Maye taking a four-win roster from a year ago and turning it into a legitimate Super Bowl threat. With just one loss since Week 4, New England will be a tough out. LA will have its hands full.
1) Denver Broncos (14-3 | No. 1 Seed)
AFC Championship Winner Previous Week’s Odds: +290 –> This Week’s Odds: +230
The Denver Broncos are in the driver’s seat as the AFC’s top seed after clinching their first AFC West title since Peyton Manning was at the helm in 2015. Most importantly, they get to sit back and await the carnage that is the Wild Card round, while they are resting and getting healthy.
Wild Card Weekend Bye
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