The Dallas Cowboys Set to Dominate the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football

2025 NFL Week 11 Preview: Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Monday Night Football goes to Las Vegas as the Cowboys travel to face a Raiders team with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Dallas is rested, healthier than they’ve been in weeks, and sitting as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5.

The market is already pushing toward Dallas, and if you look at the matchup, it’s not hard to see why.

Dallas’ Offense Should Be Able to Name Their Number

This is the definition of a perfect spot:

Indoors
Extra rest
Elite quarterback play
A porous Raiders defense
A coaching staff historically excellent off the bye

Everything lines up for Dallas to put up production in bunches.

Dak Prescott’s Sweet Spot

Dak has been elite in situations like this:

18–7 straight up with extra rest
17–8 ATS with extra rest
20–14 ATS against sub-.500 teams
Fantastic track record in domes

Coming out of the bye, Prescott and this offense have regularly put up monster numbers. Against this Vegas defense—which cannot rush the passer consistently and struggles badly in coverage—this is another potential fireworks show.

Cowboys Skill Players

CeeDee Lamb → WR1 smash spot indoors
Jake Ferguson → Massive TE upside against Vegas linebackers
Javonte Williams → Strong season to date
George Pickens→ Strong deep-shot upside indoors

This is the rare matchup where Dallas can run any script they want and still succeed.

Raiders’ Defense: A Bottom-Tier Unit in a Brutal Matchup

Vegas simply doesn’t match up well here.

Secondary is thin
Linebackers struggle in space
Pass rush outside Maxx Crosby is nonexistent
They collapse in the red zone
They give up chunk plays at an alarming rate

This is a defense ranked near the bottom of the league in almost every metric—EPA, success rate, yards per play—and facing one of the NFL’s best offenses with extra rest.

It’s a bad cocktail.

Can the Raiders Score Enough to Hang Around?

The only path for Las Vegas is offensive variance:

Big plays
Shot plays off play-action
Turnovers and short fields
High-paced, up-tempo sequences

But Dallas’ defense, despite its reputation slipping a bit, still has elite playmakers at all three levels. The Cowboys feast on one-dimensional offenses—and the Raiders are exactly that when game script goes sideways.

If Vegas falls behind by multiple scores early, this one could spiral quickly.

Betting Angle

This game has clear directionality in the market and clear matchup advantages on the field.

Side

Lean: Cowboys -3 / -3.5

If you see a 3 still available anywhere, it won’t last. Sharps expect this to move toward Dallas -4.5 or even -5 by kickoff.

Dallas is:

Elite off the bye
Elite indoors
Elite with extra rest
Elite against losing teams
Facing a defense that can’t rush or cover

It’s one of the strongest Week 11 spots on the board.

Total (50.5)

Lean Over, but dependent on the Raiders’ scoring output.

Dallas should score. Easily.

The question is whether Vegas can contribute 20+ to push this past 50.5. Indoors, with a shaky Dallas secondary, it’s possible. But if the Cowboys dominate the clock with long drives, the Over becomes trickier.

Player Props to Target

Dak Prescott Over Passing TDs
CeeDee Lamb Over Receiving Yards / Receptions
Jake Ferguson Anytime TD
George Pickens Longest Reception Over
Javonte Williams Rushing Attempts Over (positive script expected)
Maxx Crosby Over Sacks (Dak takes one or two even in good games)

This is a game with a lot of playable props.

Final Thoughts

Dallas is walking into a perfect storm of factors that historically produce big wins and big fantasy numbers. Indoors, off the bye, against a bottom-tier defense—it’s hard to script a better setup.

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