Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills: Key Points for Sunday Showdown

2025 NFL Week 11 Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday night in Orchard Park: Josh Allen vs. Baker Mayfield, swirling winds, cold air, a total sitting at 47.5, and Buffalo laying -5.5. It’s the kind of mid-November AFC test that feels gritty before the ball even kicks off.

This game is all about weather, matchups, and whether Buffalo can finally look like Buffalo again.

Let’s break it down.

Wind, Weather, and the Passing Game: A Major Factor

The market told us early what the sportsbooks think of the conditions:

Josh Allen passing yards: 214.5
Baker Mayfield passing yards: 210.5

Those are low for these quarterbacks—very low. And it’s because Orchard Park is expected to have:

Sustained winds
Gusts over 20 mph
Cold temperatures
A swirling, inconsistent environment

These are the types of games where downfield passing disappears, kickers become unplayable, and the offense that handles the wind better ends up controlling the night.

Buffalo Bills: Can the Offense Find Its Identity?

Buffalo’s week-to-week inconsistency has been maddening, but the offensive issues last week were particularly concerning:

The Running Game Completely Disappeared

Against a Miami Dolphins defense that traded defensive tackle Zach Sieler and was missing bodies inside, the Bills still couldn’t run the football.

No push
No lanes
No rhythm

If you can’t run on that, what does it look like against Tampa Bay—a top-five run defense?

If Buffalo Wins, It Won’t Be on the Ground

Tampa is elite at stopping interior runs. They want you to beat them in the air. But the weather may take that option away.

So Buffalo will need:

Quick game
Allen improvisation
Designed scrambles
A heavy dose of Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir underneath

Not explosive—just efficient enough.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Can Baker Handle the Wind?

Mayfield has quietly been playing respectable football, but this is not his type of environment:

Tampa’s offense is timing-based
Baker’s deep ball loses power in heavy wind
Route precision becomes harder for Emeka Egbuka
Tampa prefers controlled conditions

Tampa’s Path to Victory

Protect the football
Lean on Raschaad White and shotgun runs
Keep Buffalo’s pass rush from teeing off
Shorten the game
Play for field position

This is likely a more conservative Tampa game script than usual.

Game Environment: Expect a Grind, Not a Shootout

If this game were in Tampa, we’d be talking about 60 total points. But in Buffalo?

This has “24–20 type game” written all over it.

Wind kills explosives.

Wind kills field goals.

Wind kills downfield passing.

Wind kills overs.

And because Tampa is so stout against the run, both teams will be forced to dink-and-dunk their way down the field.

This sets up an environment with:

Long drives
Fewer splash plays
More punting
Lower-scoring red-zone trips

A classic cold-weather AFC game.

Betting Angle

This is a matchup where weather handicapping is key.

Side

Lean: Buccaneers +5.5

Buffalo should win, but the weather reduces variance and makes points more valuable. Tampa Bay has the run defense to force Buffalo to be one-dimensional, and the Bills haven’t shown they can consistently thrive that way.

If this gets to +6 or +6.5, even better.

Total: 47.5

Strong Lean: Under

Everything about this matchup screams:

Wind
Slower pace
Run attempts
Short throws
Missed or avoided field goals
Clock movement

This is not a shootout environment, and books posting a high 40s number is almost entirely based on name value, not conditions.

Prop Angles

Josh Allen Under Passing Yards (214.5)
Baker Mayfield Under Passing Yards (210.5)
Raschaad White Rushing Attempts Over
Josh Allen Anytime TD (designed runs should spike)
Dawson Knox Over Receptions (wind = short passes)

Stay away from:

Longest reception props
Kicker props
Deep receiving overs

Final Thoughts

This is a fascinating late-window game, not because of fireworks but because of the stylistic battle the weather creates. Buffalo is the better team, but the conditions and matchup give Tampa Bay pathways to hang around.

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.