NFL Super Bowl MVP Top 10 Player Power Rankings | Wild Card Weekend
Joe Cervenka
Host · Writer
The path to Super Bowl MVP is all about timing, matchups, and playoff leverage. These are the 10 players with the clearest runway — and the cleanest betting narratives — heading into Wild Card Weekend.
10) QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +2200
The Green Bay Packers played down to their competition in 2025, with losses to Cleveland and the Jets, along with a close win over the Giants. Jordan Love and company are coming into these playoffs on a four-game skid, although their starting QB was out (concussion) for most of that stretch. The Pack was able to rest a bunch of starters last week and has a very winnable opening-round game. That said, Love will have to lead his group without playing at home in these playoffs, where they will likely be underdogs in every game should they get past Chicago.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: at Chicago Bears
Where to Watch Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium: Soldier Field
Location: Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Time: Saturday (January 10), 8:00 p.m. ET
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds
Spread: GB -1.5 (+100) | CHI +1.5 (-122)
Total: Over 45.5 (-114) | Under (-106)
Moneyline: GB -108 | CHI -108
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Kalshi Odds
Chance: GB 51% | CHI 49%
Spread: GB -2.5 Yes 46¢ | No 56¢
Total: Over 46.5 Yes 49¢ | No 53¢
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9) WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +2000
There is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and then everybody else, when it comes to the Seattle Seahawks offensive attack. Sam Darnold‘s favorite target led the league with 1,793 receiving yards, while finishing fourth with 119 receptions to go along with 10 TDs. If the ‘Hawks utilize their first-round bye and get to the big game, I like JSN over Darnold for the award.
Wild Card Weekend Bye
8) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +1700
Trevor Lawrence is coming off arguably the most productive season of his NFL career. Highly scouted since high school, the Jacksonville Jaguars pivot led the team to the No. 2 seed and the AFC South title. Lawrence finished in the top six in passing yards (4,007) and passing TDs (29), while becoming the biggest threat on the ground he has been since being drafted first overall in 2021. The 26-year-old established new highs in rushing yards (359) and TDs (9), adding another dimension to his game. Jacksonville has a tough home playoff opener, but if they can best Josh Allen, the conference is wide open.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs. Buffalo Bills
Where to Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium: EverBank Stadium
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: Sunday (January 11), 1:00 p.m. ET
Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds
Spread: BUF -1.5 (-104) | JAX -1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: BUF -112 | JAX -104
Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Kalshi Odds
Chance: BUF 351% | JAX 49%
Spread: BUF -2.5 Yes (46¢) | No (55¢)
Total: Over 51.5 Yes (51¢) | No (50¢)
7. QB CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Opening Super Bowl MVP Opening Odds: +1700
With the top defense in the league behind him, one very good game is all it may take for CJ Stroud to take home Super Bowl MVP. Behind a balanced offense and a swarming team defense, the Houston Texans have the formula for a long playoff run. Stroud has been good but not great this season, averaging 217 passing yards per game, but with a defense and offense with multiple contributors, a good but not great game in the Super Bowl might be enough.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Where to Watch Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium: Acrisure Stadium
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch: ESPN. ABC
Time: Monday (January 12), 8:15 p.m. ET
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
Spread: HOU -3.5 (-106) | PIT +3.5 (-114)
Total: Over 39.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
Moneyline: HOU -190 | PIT +160
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Kalshi Odds
Chance: HOU 61% | PIT 39%
Spread: HOU -3.5 Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)
Total: Over 39.5 Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)
6. QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Super Bowl MVP Opening Odds: +1300
Last year’s Super Bowl MVP hasn’t looked quite right leading the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense in 2025. Good thing for Jalen Hurts, he can put it all behind him with a strong postseason performance. The former Oklahoma standout has a ton of playoff experience, and in theory, the Eagles are a team built for the postseason. If they can get through a really tough NFC, only Saquon Barkley stands in the way of Hurts lifting another Super Bowl MVP in a back-to-back.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Where to Watch San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: Sunday (January 11), 4:30 p.m. ET
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds
Spread: SF +4.5 (-110) | PHI -4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: SF +188 | PHI -220
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Kalshi Odds
Chance: SF 34% | PHI 66%
Spread: PHI -3.5 Yes (54¢) | No (46¢)
Total: Over 46.5 Yes (44¢) | No (56¢)
5) QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +1300
No New England Patriots player since Tom Brady has moved the franchise forward faster than Drake Maye. With average weapons on offense, Maye has turned the Pats from a four-win team last year to legit Super Bowl contenders. New England will have home-field advantage until at least the AFC Championship game, so the path is very possible. Should they reach their first Super Bowl since winning it in 2019, the offense will flow through Maye.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs Los Angeles Chargers
Where to Watch Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Time: Sunday (January 11), 8:00 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Betting Odds
Spread: LAC +3.5 (-110) | NE -3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 46.5 (-104) | Under (-118)
Moneyline: LAC +164 | NE -195
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Kalshi Odds
Chance: LAC 36% | NE 64%
Spread: NE -3.5 Yes (51¢) | No (50¢)
Total: Over 45.5 Yes (53¢) | No (48¢)
4) QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +1200
Josh Allen has been nearly a one-man wrecking crew on offense for the Buffalo Bills. While last year’s regular-season MVP has James Cook and one of the better rushing attacks in the league, there isn’t a lot of talent in the receivers’ room. If Buffalo can run a brutal gauntlet as a lower seed, it’s hard to imagine anyone else but Allen being the Bills’ best player in the Super Bowl.
3) QB Box Nix, Denver Broncos
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +1000
Bo Nix has exceeded expectations for the second straight year and has the Denver Broncos in their best position to win a Super Bowl since Peyton Manning and John Elway before him. What Nix lacks in passer stats ( 14th – 58.5 QBR), he makes up for on the ground (356 rushing yards, 5 TDs) and his competitive nature. The bye helps, and so does having a balanced attack, where spreading it out could mean more Super Bowl MVP votes for the QB.
Wild Card Weekend Bye
2) Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +650
Sam Darnold quietly threw for 4,048 yards this season, ranking fifth in the NFL. On the bad news side, the Seattle Seahawks pivot was third in the league, tossing 14 picks. The former New York Jet doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience, with his only postseason game coming in last year’s early exit with the Minnesota Vikings. A first-round bye helps a whole lot, and we know this is a quarterback’s award, but Darnold will have to get his first playoff win before I’m buying it.
Wild Card Weekend Bye
1) QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Opening Super Bowl MVP Odds: +600
Matthew Stafford is not only the favorite to win regular-season MVP, but also tops the Super Bowl MVP odds board. The Los Angeles Rams are also the biggest favorite on the board in the opening round of the playoffs, and the Super Bowl LVI winner looks like he’s on a mission this season.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: at Carolina Panthers
Where to Watch Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, NC
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: Saturday (January 10), 4:30 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds
Spread: LAR -10.5 (-108) | CAR +10.5 (-112)
Total: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: LAR -620 | CAR +460
Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers Kalshi Odds
Chance: LAR 82% | CAR 18%
Spread: LAR 10.5 Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)
Total: Over 46.5 Yes (52¢) | No (41¢)
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