NFL · 1 month ago

NFL Wild Card Weekend 2026 Best Bets: Chargers vs Patriots

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

The NFL playoffs are finally here. The holidays have passed, and incidentally, there are plenty of postseason betting opportunities between now and Super Bowl LX on February 8. We’ve got you covered!

Where to Watch Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots

Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, NE
Where to Watch: NBC/Peacock
Time: Sunday (January 11), 8 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

Spread: LAC +3.5 (-110) | NE -3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 46.5 (-104) | Under 46.5 (-118)
Moneyline: LAC +166 | NE -198

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Kalshi Odds

Chance: LAC 37% | NE 63%
Spread: NE -3.5 Yes (51¢) | No (49¢)
Total: Over 49.5 Yes (51¢) | No (49¢)

For Sunday’s nightcap, the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) are out in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to take on the AFC-East champion New England Patriots (14-3). That will feature two talented quarterbacks facing two high-quality defenses.

The national narrative will paint this contest as Justin Herbert (60.8 QBR) vs. Drake Maye (77.2 QBR). Herbert is one of the most gifted throwers of the pigskin that the NFL has to offer. Across the way, second-year Maye finished the campaign as a frontrunner to win AP Most Valuable Player. Herbert will be looking to relinquish his playoff demons while Maye is making his postseason debut.

Both signal callers will need to operate with caution. The Patriots’ defense held opponents to 18.8 PPG in 2025, the fourth-best mark in the league. Los Angeles also displayed prowess on that side of the ball. The Chargers boast one of the stickiest secondaries, as they gave up just 179.9 YPG through the air en route to registering 19 interceptions.

Bolts-Pats has the potential to be the best game of Wild Card Weekend. I expect this bid to be tight, but with Los Angeles’ moneyline at +166, I am certainly intrigued. SportsGrid’s prediction model gives the Chargers a 48% chance at victory, which is significant when compared to 37.6% implied (at +166 odds).

In an attempt to make a value play, I’ll take the Bolts SU.

Best Bet: Chargers ML (+166)

New England and Los Angeles both completed the 2025 regular season within the top ten in terms of defensive scoring. Considering that, I have a difficult time seeing these two sides combine for 47 or more points.

I like the under in Foxborough. The weather forecast for Greater Boston is calling for snow on Sunday night. That should slow down these talented offenses a tad.

Notably, the Chargers were one of the most profitable teams for under bettors this season. As of now, Los Angeles has gone 10-6-1 (62.5%) in favor of the under.

The point total of 46.5 is the second-highest of Wild Card Weekend. I respect the offenses on hand, but in that same vein, I appreciate the defenses more. I don’t see the over 46.5 as a wise selection, especially with inclement playing conditions on the horizon.