NFL · 13 minutes ago

Top 5 NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks With Upset Potential

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

5. Atlanta Falcons (+108) vs. New Orleans Saints
For one of my best bets of NFL Week 12, I really like over 39.5 total points between the Atlanta Falcons (3-7) and New Orleans Saints (2-8) at the Superdome. However, I am also attracted to the notion of a Falcons upset in this spot. Notably, Kirk Cousins will be taking the snaps for Atlanta. Cousins has yet to throw a touchdown in 2025, but he is substantially more experienced than Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Ahead of Week 12, New Orleans' offense is ranked 30th, scoring only 15.5 PPG. That's likely a significant factor why SportsGrid's model gives the Falcons a 55% chance to win.

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1. Indianapolis Colts (+156) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) may have one of the conference's top records at this juncture, but if they get by the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) at Arrowhead this weekend, the entire NFL will be on notice. Ahead of Week 12, the Colts are operating with the league's top offense in terms of scoring (32.1 PPG) and total yardage (396.9 YPG). Conversely, the Chiefs have a top-five defense, allowing only 18.1 PPG. Indianapolis will still have every opportunity to control the tempo behind its massive offensive line. If tailback Jonathan Taylor has another big day, Indy will have a solid shot at the upset this weekend. SportsGrid's betting model concurs, labeling Colts ML (+156 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) as a four-star play.

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2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+122) vs. Chicago Bears
Whether the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) elect to start Aaron Rodgers (wrist) or Mason Rudolph, I think they'll match up well with the Chicago Bears (7-3) this Sunday. I acknowledge that the Steelers have not won at Soldier Field since 1995, but nothing lasts forever. Pittsburgh's offense is currently ranked 12th in the NFL in scoring. The Steelers' stout running game should succeed against the Bears, a team allowing 133.3 YPG on the ground right now. Lastly, SportsGrid's prediction model gives Pittsburgh a 51% winning probability in this spot.
3. Cleveland Browns (+172) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
For my longest dog of the week, I have my eye on the Cleveland Browns (2-8) visiting the Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) at Allegiant Stadium. Notably, this will be Browns rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders's first NFL start. Sanders's appearance in relief last week was certainly forgettable, throwing for 47 yards and an interception. Still, he will be more familiar with Cleveland's 1s this Sunday. The Browns (+172 ML) likely won't need to score very much to win against Las Vegas. Over their past six contests, the Raiders have produced only 13.0 PPG. I don't like how Vegas' offense matches up with Cleveland's top-ranked defense.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals (+130)
The Arizona Cardinals (3-7) appear to be a franchise in transition, but I won't be surprised if they steal a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) this Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville ranks outside of the NFL's top ten on both offense and defense, and traveling east-to-west is never an easy task. Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett is playing good football right now, as he recently set the league's single-game completion record. If Arizona's defense can rally at home this weekend, the Jags will be thoroughly challenged. ESPN Analytics gives the Cards a 45.4% chance to win, which presents value on their +130 ML price.
5. Atlanta Falcons (+108) vs. New Orleans Saints
For one of my best bets of NFL Week 12, I really like over 39.5 total points between the Atlanta Falcons (3-7) and New Orleans Saints (2-8) at the Superdome. However, I am also attracted to the notion of a Falcons upset in this spot. Notably, Kirk Cousins will be taking the snaps for Atlanta. Cousins has yet to throw a touchdown in 2025, but he is substantially more experienced than Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Ahead of Week 12, New Orleans' offense is ranked 30th, scoring only 15.5 PPG. That's likely a significant factor why SportsGrid's model gives the Falcons a 55% chance to win.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
1. Indianapolis Colts (+156) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) may have one of the conference's top records at this juncture, but if they get by the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) at Arrowhead this weekend, the entire NFL will be on notice. Ahead of Week 12, the Colts are operating with the league's top offense in terms of scoring (32.1 PPG) and total yardage (396.9 YPG). Conversely, the Chiefs have a top-five defense, allowing only 18.1 PPG. Indianapolis will still have every opportunity to control the tempo behind its massive offensive line. If tailback Jonathan Taylor has another big day, Indy will have a solid shot at the upset this weekend. SportsGrid's betting model concurs, labeling Colts ML (+156 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook) as a four-star play.

Have all the intel you need? Free, actionable information is just one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

Top 5 NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks With Upset Potential

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