Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Betting Trends

Week 12 brings a heavyweight Thursday Night Football matchup between two contenders looking to stay relevant in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills enter at 7-3, while the Houston Texans sit at 5-5, but the Texans boast the league’s top-ranked defense and one of the NFL’s best turnover differentials.

With playoff positioning at stake, this one sets up as a sharp, data-driven battleground for bettors. Let’s look over the latest betting trends and insights from BetMGM.

BUF vs HOU Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Bills vs Texans Spread, Total & Moneyline Splits

Bills -6: 79% of bets, 84% of handle
Texans +6: 21% of bets, 16% of handle
Total 43.5 (Under): 46% of bets, 20% of handle
Bills ML -300: 64% of bets, 84% of handle
Texans ML +240: 36% of bets, 16% of handle

The market shows heavy Buffalo support — both on the spread and moneyline — despite Houston owning the superior defense and a strong +7 turnover differential.

Thursday Night Football Team Comparison

Bills Outlook

Buffalo’s offense continues to operate as a top-tier unit:

Overall offense: 2nd
Passing offense: 8th (251.0 YPG)
Rushing offense: 1st (147.6 YPG)
Scoring offense: T-4
Time of possession: 1st (32:22)

Josh Allen remains the engine, entering Week 12 with 2,456 passing yards, 18 TD passes, and elite efficiency (69.6% completion).

However, Buffalo’s defense is split dramatically:

Pass defense: 2nd (169.7 YPG)
Rush defense: 31st (153.0 YPG)
Total defense: 12th

The Bills’ glaring vulnerability is their run defense — a problem Houston is well-equipped to attack.

Texans Outlook

Houston’s identity is all defense:

Total defense: 1st (258.1 YPG)
Pass defense: 3rd (171.0 YPG)
Rush defense: 3rd (87.1 YPG)
Scoring defense: 1st (16.3 PPG)

DeMeco Ryans’ group is suffocating, disciplined, and opportunistic with 10 interceptions, tied for third in the league.

Offensively:

Total offense: 19th
Passing: 16th
Rushing: 23rd
Scoring: 21st

With C.J. Stroud missing his third straight game tonight, Houston’s offense will have to rely on Davis Mills under center. Still, the Texans’ attack is based on efficiency rather than explosiveness.

Blitz the Books with SportsGrid’s 4- & 5-Star NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Bets.

Bills and Texans Recent Form

Bills – Last 5 Games

W vs TB 44-32
L @ MIA 30-13
W vs KC 28-21
W @ CAR 40-9
L @ ATL 24-14

Buffalo has alternated dominant wins with sloppy road losses but enters TNF off a season-high 44 points.

Texans – Last 5 Games

W @ TEN 16-13
W vs JAX 36-29
L vs DEN 18-15
W vs SF 26-15
L @ SEA 27-19

Houston’s defense has kept them competitive even when the offense sputters.

Matchup Edges

Bills Advantage: Passing Offense vs. Texans Secondary

Buffalo can stress even elite secondaries with volume and efficiency. Houston has allowed just 10 TD passes, but Allen’s mobility and arm talent present matchup problems.

Texans Advantage: Running Game vs. Bills Rush Defense

Buffalo ranks 31st in yards allowed on the ground and is dead last in rushing TDs allowed. Rookie RB Woody Marks and Nick Chubb are positioned for volume and touchdown opportunities.

Wild Card Factor: Turnovers

Texans: +7
Bills: +1

If Houston flips possessions, they can control pace and shorten the game.

Against the Spread

Bills: 5-5 ATS
Texans: 4-6 ATS

Buffalo is more volatile, while Houston’s defense has kept them inside the number more consistently.

Tackle the Odds with SportsGrid’s Expert NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Picks.

TNF Final Thoughts

Bills–Texans profiles as a classic strength-on-strength showdown: Buffalo’s explosive offense against Houston’s No. 1 defense. The betting market leans heavily toward the Bills, yet the Texans’ defensive consistency and turnover edge keep this matchup closer than the spread suggests. Expect a tactical, lower-possession game where red-zone execution and QB play determine who controls Thursday night.

All BetMGM data is based on straight bets

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Betting Trends | NFL Week 12 TNF