NFL MVP Top 7 Player Power Rankings & Pick Going Into Wild Card Weekend
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The NFL MVP race has been anything but static this season, with shifting odds, late-season surges, and a crowded field of quarterbacks making their case. The final regular-season stats are in, and voters will have to look back over 17 weeks of individual and team performance to make a decision.
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7) WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +50000 –> This Week’s Odds: +50000
6) QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +50000 –> This Week’s Odds: +50000
Playing with a broken non-throwing hand since Week 13, Justin Herbert certainly deserves some kudos for playing through the pain with an awkward-looking cast. Herbert’s regular season ended with 3,727 passing yards, 28 total TDs, 13 picks, and almost 500 yards on the ground. The Chargers rested their franchise pivot in Week 18, but he will suit up for Wild Card Weekend.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: at New England Patriots
5) QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +30000 –> This Week’s Odds: +50000
Caleb Williams has validated the Chicago Bears’ decision to take him first overall in 2024. He flourished under Ben Johnson, ending the year seventh with 3,942 passing yards, sixth with 27 touchdown passes, all while limiting mistakes to just seven picks. Though his numbers aren’t a dramatic leap from his rookie season, Williams’ late-game composure, knack for comeback victories, and ability to lead Chicago to the No. 2 seed show his growth. He won’t win it this year, but an MVP campaign could be in his very near future.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs Green Bay Packers
4) QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +40000 –> This Week’s Odds: +50000
Bo Nix has exceeded most preseason projections through his first two seasons, helping guide Denver to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The competitiveness and poise are evident, and he’s proven capable of delivering in high-leverage moments.
What remains unanswered is whether Nix can consistently elevate an offense on his own when the margins tighten. He’s shown toughness, command, and growth — but not yet the week-to-week dominance that defines the league’s true upper tier. Year 3 now becomes the inflection point. If Nix takes that next step, his name enters the MVP conversation for real.
Wild Card Weekend Bye
3) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +22500 –> This Week’s Odds: +30000
The Jacksonville Jaguars keep winning, and Trevor Lawrence continues to show why he was the consensus top pick in 2021 and highly recruited out of high school. Jacksonville notched its eighth straight victory with an absolute shellacking of the Tennessee Titans in Week 18. The 41-7 beatdown clinched the AFC South and No. 2 seed for the Jags, capping Lawrence’s best NFL season.
The fifth-year man out of Clemson set career bests in passing touchdowns (29), rushing yards (359), rushing scores (9), and QBR (58.3). Lawrence showed he can sling it with the big boys and has a real shot at being in the conversation for Most Valuable Player next season.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs Buffalo Bills
2) QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: -340 –> This Week’s Odds: +140
Drake Maye‘s odds took a hit following Week 18, after dropping in half in each of the past two weeks. The North Carolina alum played well in the New England Patriots drubbing of the Miami Dolphins, throwing for a touchdown, but was held out for the fourth quarter, and New England featured a run-heavy game plan. With their playoff seeding all but settled, Mike Vrabel took a more conservative approach, protecting his quarterback for New England’s playoff run.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: vs Los Angeles Chargers
1) QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Previous Week’s AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +280 –> This Week’s Odds: -175
Matthew Stafford is back in the driver’s seat after opening the door for Drake Maye. The former Detroit Lions signal caller helped end the Los Angeles Rams ‘ two-game losing streak by throwing for four TDs while hanging 37 on the Arizona Cardinals. Stafford played the entire game, throwing for 259 yards on 40 pass attempts. The MVP favorite’s season finale put the sour taste of his worst performance of the season in a Week 17 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in the rear view mirror.
Wild Card Weekend Opponent: at Carolina Panthers
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My Pick: Drake Maye
After factoring in the whole season, the supporting casts, and how each quarterback performed when the games carried the most weight, I’m sticking with my pick heading into the last week: Drake Maye.
Maye created real separation down the stretch, not just in the box score but in impact. He’s carried a roster that hasn’t sniffed true contention since the post–Tom Brady reset, doing more with less than any quarterback in the race.
Matthew Stafford will — and should — draw votes. At 37, with the Rams navigating the NFC West gauntlet and Stafford potentially staring at his last realistic shot at an MVP, narrative gravity is working in his favor. He’s faced tougher weekly resistance and delivered in high-leverage spots.
But when weighing value, sustainability, and season-long influence, Maye still checks the most boxes. With the oddsboard flipping between Maye and Stafford, the market has created plus-money value — and that only reinforces the stance. My pick remains unchanged.
